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Flemington Betting Tips for November 2, 2024 - Race-By-Race preview for Victoria Derby day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 31 Oct 2024
Alex Marsh 31 Oct 2024
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  • The 2024 Melbourne Cup Carnival opens with Derby Day at Flemington on November 2
  • Features nine black-type races, including the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, Victoria Derby and Empire Rose Stakes
  • Top tips include 'Powers Of Opal' in the Wakeful Stakes and 'Feroce' via the Carbine Club Stakes
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Flemington Tips for 02.11.2024
Nine Group races will be contested on Flemington's Derby Day program. (Getty)

The 2024 Melbourne Cup Carnival begins on November 2, with the famous Derby Day program the first of four meetings via one of the biggest carnivals in the world.
  • Flemington Tips November 2
  • Race 1 - 12:20PM Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 2 - 1:00PM The TAB Vanity Tips (1400m)
  • Race 3 - 1:40PM G.H. Mumm Rising Fast Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 4 - 2:20PM The Damien Oliver Tips (1400m)
  • Race 5 - 3:00PM HKJC World Pool Wakeful Stakes Tips (2000m)
  • Race 6 - 3:40PM Coolmore Stud Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 7 - 4:20PM Penfolds Victoria Derby Tips (2500m)
  • Race 8 - 5:00PM TAB Empire Rose Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 9 - 5:40PM Furphy Sprint Tips (1100m)

All nine events hold black-type status, and the Group 1 action on Saturday comes via the Coolmore Stud Stakes, Victoria Derby and Empire Rose Stakes.

Our race-by-race preview is included below.

Flemington Tips November 2


Race 1 - 12:20PM Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes Tips (1600m)


Best: 1. Feroce. It wasn't a vintage edition Caulfield Guineas, however, it's still the right form this, as were the first and second-up performances from this son of Super Seth.

Feroce hasn't done much wrong in six career starts, with his heaviest defeat coming behind Growing Empire on return this campaign and he should've finished much closer there.

He has enough speed to use barrier five early, which could prove crucial given this small field could throw up a tactical affair, where he maps to settle ahead of his main market threats.

Value: 7. Canara. Chris Waller is searching for his fourth Carbine Club victory and the three winners that he's prepared all went on to Group 1 glory (Kermadec, Comin' Through and Fangirl).

The less fancied of his two chances in the 2024 edition is Canara, who would have to be about the best 10-start maiden getting around and she looks suited out to a mile.

She was a touch flat second-up when unable to cash-in via a midweek maiden, but Canara bounced off that with a slashing last start fourth-of-thirteen finish in a Group 3.

Race 2 - 1:00PM The TAB Vanity Tips (1400m)


Best: 4. I Am Velvet. She's been her own worst enemy on race day and that finally caught up with I Am Velvet first-up on October 12, where the filly suffered here first defeat.

Although she was held-up, the three-year-old still lacked the nous to take a tight gap when opportunities presented, as she laid in late after eventually settling in the box-seat.

If there's a horse that you want drawing out, then it's this filly who is suited up to 1400m second-up on a bigger track and I Am Velvet could be anything when the penny drops.
Value: 12. More Territories. There has been more quality to the Sydney races that she's been contesting and Flemington should suit the O'Shea & Charlton-trained galloper.

Following good performances to open her season behind the likes of Manaal and Autumn Glow, More Territories was unlucky last time when contesting the Tapp-Craig.

Just Party almost franked that form last Saturday at Group 2 level and now back against her own sex with Hugh Bowman taking the reins, she does look very well placed.

Race 3 - 1:40PM G.H. Mumm Rising Fast Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 11. Rey Magnerio. The straight bat option in an open race could be Rey Magnerio, a consistent sprinter who is suited up to 1200m and back on firm ground is another tick.

He recorded a winning hat-trick when deep into his last spring prep, which included an easy straight-track triumph over Mornington Glory (subsequent Group 1 winner).

While dropping back to 1000m wasn't ideal last start, the gelding still should've won the Caulfield Sprint and he arrived there off a fast-run event first-up, so he'll be fit.

Value: 5. It'sourtime. He's never really been one of mine, however, with a good overall record up the Flemington straight, It'soutrtime has to be included at a double figure price.

His last three wins have all come over this track/trip and he's suited back in distance now after being tried at 1400m on October 5, where he was specked late in the betting.

The seven-year-old finished third in this race last year when carrying 1.5kg more and a return to a good track is also a positive here (hasn't won any surface worse than a Soft 5).

Race 4 - 2:20PM The Damien Oliver Tips (1400m)


Best: 2. Another Wil. There hasn't really been any in-between efforts from Another Wil, especially once he worked past the lower grades, but his best work has been brilliant.

The five-year-old needs to respond from a heavy Toorak defeat last start, where he was heavily backed in a Group 1 handicap that was dominated by an impressive Antino.

Given Bank Maur gave him no peace on the speed throughout that Caulfield feature and with that pest finishing almost 14 lengths last, there were some excuses in the Toorak.

Value: 6. Ripcord. There was merit to his Melbourne debut effort, with Ripcord beginning awkwardly in that straight-track affair and he finished off okay despite being keen in the run.

The Perth visitor was then too bad to be true at Caulfield, but I'm happy to trust the stable given he's showing up a fortnight after that and there's more in his favour here.

Not only is he suited on a firmer track after two Soft 6 attempts, but Damian Lane on and a soft draw could allow him to be dangerous late in a small field with his turn-of-foot.

Race 5 - 3:00PM HKJC World Pool Wakeful Stakes Tips (2000m)


Best: 5. Powers Of Opal. John Sargent is a master trainer of young stayer's and he's searching for his fourth Wakeful Stakes winner with Powers Of Opal, who heads the market.

Being by Ocean Park and out of the twice Group 1 placed Strada Cavallo (third in an NZ Oaks), this three-year-old should have no trouble in her first try past 1600m on Saturday.

J-Mac sticks from the confidence boosting Hawkesbury romp on October 17, which followed a somewhat plain run in the Group 1 Flight Stakes, but she has turned a corner.
Value: 14. Litzdeel. She did enough on debut at Geelong last month, where the daughter of Dundeel chased well despite being restricted room late via that 1447m attempt.

Litzdeel progressed from there to take out a mile maiden at Bairnsdale, which was a fighting performance when finding again late in that run after hitting a flat spot.

She's a half-sister to Melbourne Cup winning stablemate Vow And Declare, while another older sibling in Lycurgus was a stakes winner over 2400m, so she should relish the extra trip.

Race 6 - 3:40PM Coolmore Stud Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 1. Growing Empire. The Ciaron Maher-trained colt is deep into the campaign, having completed four starts this prep and that's the main query for the talented sprinter in the Coolmore Stud Stakes.

Growing Empire is back against his own age group after placing in both the Manikato Stakes and The Everest, and he's still learning the caper despite having an impressive record.

The son of Zoustar won four races in a row after a second on debut and the last of those triumphs was recorded up the Flemington straight with Mark Zahra aboard.

This colt has his quirks, so the jockey switch is well worth noting here, as Zahra is unbeaten from three rides on Growing Empire and gate nine up the straight is also a plus.

Next Best: 5. Switzerland. Chris Waller is searching for his sixth Coolmore Stud Stakes winner and he did prepare the Coolmore-owned Home Affairs (2021) via his last victory in this three-year-old feature.

Coolmore and Waller combine with Switzerland, who won his first three appearances as a two-year-old and the son of Snitzel bounced back to winning form last start.

Storm Boy was chosen instead of this youngster for The Everest and keeping this colt on the fresh side may be the key (all wins have come when three or more weeks between runs).

There's a perfect sense of timing with Switzerland, who hasn't been knocked around by a long prep and he was terrific past the line via a Flemington jump-out last week.

Value: 7. Bodyguard. He was a straight-track winner on debut as an early juvenile and Bodyguard made two-from-two when taking out an edition of the Blue Diamond Prelude at Caulfield.

Things didn't pan for the Peter Snowden-trained colt after that Group 3 success, as he was withdrawn from the Blue Diamond Stakes by vets before returning to Sydney.

Bodyguard has trialled the house down in both spring heats and while he was disappointing first-up in the Danehill Stakes, he wasn't comfortable on Soft 6 surface there.

He's since bolted in with a 1045m hit-out at Randwick and along with getting winkers applied for this Group 1 assignment, the colt also gets the services of Hugh Bowman.

Race 7 - 4:20PM Penfolds Victoria Derby Tips (2500m)


Best: 1. El Castello. He's been in hot form this season, with the son of Castelvecchio winning all four spring starts and that includes a last start Group 1 triumph in the Spring Champion Stakes.

Ace High (2017) was the last horse to complete the Spring Champion Stakes/Victoria Derby double, although it's worth noting that the Spring Champion Stakes was contested earlier seven years ago.

Backing up with interstate travel can be a tough ask, although he hasn't had gut busters via his last three appearances and a tough run last week may have ruled him out.

Anthony Cummings prepared Fiveandahalfstar to win the 2012 Victoria Derby and El Castello is from the same family, with his dam being a half-sister to the dual Group 1 winner.
Next Best: 4. Goldrush Guru. Another colt from a famous family is Goldrush Guru, who is closely related to Gamblin' Guru, Gallant Guru and Gold Guru, with the latter being an Australian Derby winner.

There's plenty of question marks regarding the quality of this field, especially from the Victorian horses and that's supported by El Castello being an outright fav from Sydney.

Goldrush Guru has class and he relished the rise in distance on October 19 when saluting at Listed level and the runner-up from that event was Group 2 placed last Saturday.

American Pharoah sired last year's Victoria Derby winner (Riff Rocket) and while he doesn't appear to have that level of quality, the South Australian looks as though he'll stay.

Value: 11. China Sea. Trainer John Sargent needs to be respected in three-year-old staying races and this looks the clear target for China Sea, who will contest the Victoria Derby fourth-up.

A debut winner who was then spelled after failing in the JJ Atkins, the son of Fastnet Rock was good late on return behind Lady Shenandoah, who then bolted in with the Flight Stakes.

The second-up run when finding trouble was inconclusive, but he bounced off that with a narrow last start defeat in the Caulfield Classic, which is a traditional lead-up.

With the October 19 outing being his time first racing anti-clockwise, China Sea should only benefit from that 2000m hit-out and the booking of Mark Zahra is also a plus.

Race 8 - 5:00PM TAB Empire Rose Stakes Tips (1600m)


Best: 2. Amelia's Jewel. A winning drought is starting to creep up on Amelia's Jewel, who hasn't saluted since beating Pride Of Jenni back in September 2023 when taking out the Group 2 Stocks Stakes.

It's amazing what both Pride Of Jenni and Amelia's Jewel did from there, with Jenni completing a stunning resume that most thought this mare would have.

She has been competitive in three starts since joining the Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald stable and she arrives here off a fifth-place finish in the King Charles III Stakes.

Now hard-fit and back against her own sex fourth-up, and with the return to her Melbourne leg a positive, there's no excuses for Amelia's Jewel in the Empire Rose Stakes.

Next Best: 13. Plenty Of Ammo. This looks a rise in class on paper, however, Plenty Of Ammo won a decent edition of the Crystal Mile last Saturday and she's back vs the mares on the seven day back-up.

Although that Group 2 at The Valley was a messy affair, the six-year-old did settle further back that anticipated and there were a host of quality gallopers in behind her.

That second-up performance followed an unlucky second when resuming early in October, which was her first try at stakes level after working through the grades last season.

Plenty Of Ammo is still lightly raced and in a Group 1 that's up for grabs given some question marks around the proven class runners of the field, she has to be in the mix.

Value: 8. Lekvarte. The Sydneysider completed a career best season in the 2024/2024 period, which included a pair of Group 3 victories and both of those triumphs were recorded over 1600m.

Her class at Group 1 level is an obvious query, however, master trainer Joe Pride has the grey in fine touch and this is well worth a short at the stumps third-up from a spell.

Lekvarte is capable of letting down off any tempo, with the daughter of Reliable Man impressing off a slow speed last time out when making ground from the rear.

That asset could hold her in really good stead for this event, as there isn't much speed if Grinzinger Belle doesn't roll along and a return to firmer footing here is also no knock.

Race 9 - 5:40PM Furphy Sprint Tips (1100m)


Best: 7. Infancy. This mares Group 3 began in 2005, but it already has a tidy honour roll, with Ortensia, Sheidel, Tofane and Asfoora among the Group 1 winners who have saluted in this race.

Infancy is an each-way price, with the Australian Bloodstock sprinter catching the eye in a handy form race on October 5 with the fastest last 600m,400m and 200m of that Randwick card.

With a few more favours, she would've made that last start event interesting and the four-year-old showed she was up to the level in autumn when unlucky not to record back-to-back stakes wins.
Value: 13. Wanda Rox. It'll be interesting to see how this Queenslander measures up in her toughest ask to date, with the mare having won nine from 15 starts in her home state.

The five-year-old did it at both ends third-up at Eagle Farm in decent time and that followed a forgivable Weetwood miss where she was unsuited on a testing Heavy 8 track.

With the ability to quicken off a good cruising speed and drawing favourably towards the outside in this 1100m dash, Wanda Rox makes some appeal at a double figure quote.

Verdict

Our best & value tips for Flemington's Derby Day card are:

Best Bet1: Powers Of Opal To Win $2.70 at Ladbrokes Australia - 5 Units
Best Bet2: Feroce To Win $2.20 at betfair - 3 Units
Best Bet3: I Am Velvet Each Way $17.00 at Betr - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Infancy Each Way $12.00 at picklebet - 1 Unit
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Betting Slip | 02 Nov 2024

Flemington - November 2