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Flemington Betting Tips for September 14, 2024 - Race-By-Race preview for Makybe Diva Stakes day
- Eight stakes races on Flemington's card on September 14, headlined by the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes
- Detailed analysis and tips for all ten races, with highlights including Nadal in Race 1, Wonder Boy in Race 2, and Growing Empire in Race 4
- Key betting tips: Best bets include 'Growing Empire' and 'Wonder Boy,' with value bets on 'Bandersnatch' and 'Berkeley Square'
Expired
The Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes headlines Saturday's Flemington meeting. (Getty)
Eight stakes races feature on a strong Flemington card on September 14, with the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes headlining Saturday's feature program.
- Flemington Tips August 3
- Race 1 - 12:10PM TAB We're On (1100m)
- Race 2 - 12:40PM Exford Plate (1400m)
- Race 3 - 1:15PM Cap D'Antibes Stakes (1100m)
- Race 4 - 1:50PM Winning Edge Presentations Poseidon Stakes (1100m)
- Race 5 - 2:30PM Lexus Archer Stakes (2500m)
- Race 6 - 3:05PM Vale Black Caviar (1400m)
- Race 7 - 3:40PM Furphy Let's Elope Stakes (1400m)
- Race 8 - 4:20PM Crown Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m)
- Race 9 - 4:55PM HKJC World Pool Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m)
- Race 10 - 5:25PM Ronald McDonald House Charities Trophy (1700m)
Our preview for all ten races is included below.
Flemington Tips August 3
Race 1 - 12:10PM TAB We're On (1100m)
Best: 4. Nadal. One of the stronger BM78's you'll see opens up a terrific Flemington card and leading a competitive early market is the Group 2 placed Nadal.
Connections have made the decision to geld the son of Xtravagant and his lead-up work ahead of this return has been very sharp (won two jump-outs in August).
Nadal could've opened a bigger margin on Dublin Down and Gumdrops via his last 800m heat win, while he was good late in the Coolmore via his only straight track attempt.
Value: 8. Sir Sway. I wouldn't let this SA visitor sneak under the guard at a big price, a four-year-old who has put together a tidy record (five wins from eight starts).
His only time finishing out of the money was an end of prep sixth-of-sixteen at Group 2 level last time in and he was still one the best on speed performers in that race.
Sir Sway was a Listed winner at this trip over the Adelaide Carnival and first-up without any public trials, he recorded a brave win at Morphettville a fortnight ago.
Race 2 - 12:40PM Exford Plate (1400m)
Best: 1. Wonder Boy. While it's only a small field, this three-year-old Listed affair is still one of the more interesting races on what is a stacked program on Saturday.
I had this affair jotted down for Wonder Boy ahead of his last start second behind the very smart Growing Empire, where he was strong late and he put a big margin on third.
That followed an 1100m return, where he struggled to balance up over that trip and with Wonder Boy seemingly crying out for 1400m, he finds his right race here.
Value: 3. Detroit City. He reminds a little of an early Steparty and Detroit City is on the fresh side here after an outstanding victory at start two over this track/trip.
That August 3 romp came off the back of a four-length maiden romp at Wodonga and the runner-up from that country maiden has won two of his next three.
The son of Toronado was workmanlike when getting home for second in an August 27 trial and he completed that without blinkers, which go back on for race day.
Race 3 - 1:15PM Cap D'Antibes Stakes (1100m)
Best: 3. Tobeornottobe. It feels a more open race than the market suggests, with two of the four single figure chances (Kuroyanagi and Bold Bastille) arriving off poor runs.
Tobeornottobe is the sole first-up contender from the market elects and the filly was tipped out after a big Group 3 win up the straight, with Ameena running second there.
The form through the runner-up has stood-up, as has the earlier references vs Hayasugi, while she's completed three jump-outs (latest was clearly the pick of them).
Value: 9. Symphony Of Colour. This Matthew Ellerton-trained youngster backed-up an impressive debut win with a runner-up finish in The Showdown at Caulfield.
Symphony Of Colour was then spelled after a two-length Group 3 defeat in Adelaide and she always looked a type who would improve in her three-year-old season.
She could still be a prep or so away from fully furnishing going off her recent lead-up work, but this filly has a lot of raw talent and that could take her along way here.
Race 4 - 1:50PM Winning Edge Presentations Poseidon Stakes (1100m)
Best: 1. Growing Empire. Bookies were quick to wind in the quote for the early Coolmore Stud Stakes fav following a stylish first-up victory in the McNeil Stakes.
Despite completing strong jump-outs, the market was against Growing Empire late via that August 31 return and there was still improvement to come (switched off late).
It's his first try up the Flemington straight and that along with a low draw could see a market drift late (see if there's a pattern in Races 1 and 3), but he's still the one to beat.
Value: 4. High Octane. The forgotten sprinter of this three-year-old crop could be High Octane, who was in Blue Diamond calculations last prep after his debut win.
The Peter Snowden-trained colt was then luckless as a beaten fav in the Blue Diamond Prelude and he was a touch plain in the Blue Diamond Stakes before a spell.
It was a good return in the Rosebud, where High Octane should've finished closer to Gatsby's (held-up) and a subsequent tick-over trial win suggests there's intent here.
Race 5 - 2:30PM Lexus Archer Stakes (2500m)
Best: 6. Berkshire Breeze. It's a decent field for the Archer Stakes, with this Melbourne Cup Qualifier (for the winner) moved from its traditional Derby Day slot.
It's a very open race and despite going down as a $1.45 fav last start, prior form and a string of short starting prices were always going to see Berkshire Breeze respected.
With this race in mind to get into the Melbourne Cup, I wonder whether Ciaron Maher backed off with the grey ahead of his August 3 outing (has since won a jump-out).
Value: 10. Good Oil. Class is an obvious query for Good Oil, hence a bolters quote is available, however, I have no doubt that Andrew Forsman has targeted this race.
Visors go back on here seven days after a flat run with a big weight at The Valley and that second-up run followed a decent August 24 resumption over 1600m.
The Auckland Cup placegetter can land on the speed over this trip and with rough results not uncommon in these staying affairs, I'd be including him as a top three/four hope.
Race 6 - 3:05PM Vale Black Caviar (1400m)
Best: 2. Bandersnatch. This eight-year-old has been a good campaigner for connections, with 10 wins (four at stakes level) and more than $1.2 million in prize money to date.
Although he's giving weight to most rivals, Bandersnatch finds his right race third-up and while outclassed in the Memsie Stakes, the gelding wasn't disgraced last start.
That Group 1 attempt followed a fair 1200m return and stripping fitter with a seven furlong run under the belt, he can push forward and give a good sight here.
Value: 12. Chrysaor. While he's yet to race in Victoria, I suspect that Chrysaor will be really well suited over the Flemington 1400m and this is a nice starting point.
He only had light preps over his three-year-old season and given the gelding was racing until mid-June, there's a decent platform here when adding in two August trials.
Chrysaor can produce a big finish when saved up in transit with cover and on this big circuit where he carries the 54kg minimum, he could be dangerous fresh.
Race 7 - 3:40PM Furphy Let's Elope Stakes (1400m)
Best: 10. Running By. One of the more open races on this entire Group 1 meeting is this 1400m Mares Group 2 and a very competitive betting market backs that up.
Running By got the chocolates for us first-up a decent odds and while this is step up in class, she's back against her own sex and keeping her on the fresh side is fine.
With 4.5kg less from her return assignment and now contesting what's a likely black-type target, she can go on with it (fresh win rated well for the class vs the PB Lawrence).
Value: 15. Foxy Cleopatra. Although she hasn't recorded a black-type win, five of her seven placings have come at stakes level and the ability has always been there.
Foxy Cleopatra has been her own worst enemy on race days, where her manners have proved too costly, but there's still multiple form lines which read well enough.
She'll put it together one day and take out a good race, and off three jump-outs without blinkers (they're on for race day) that victory could easily be here at a big price.
Race 8 - 4:20PM Crown Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m)
Best: 8. Via Sistina. She pulled off a mini upset victory on return in the Winx Stakes, where the Chris Waller-trained import saluted despite resuming over seven furlongs.
That trip was on the short side for the seven-year-old and while 1600m here is a building block towards a Cox Plate peak, she can improve from the first-up triumph.
J-Mac will be hungry to turn the tables from the Queen Elizabeth, where he and the rest of the chasing brigade fell asleep, and he'll have the popular front-runner within sight.
Value: 7. Atishu. Returning to Flemington is a big positive for the daughter of Savabeel, with the mare having only finished out of the money once in six attempts at this circuit.
A second-up win last campaign was the last of her three wins at HQ and that March 30 victory came off the back of 1400m return at Caulfied, where she was well beaten.
Atishu should've added a third Group 1 to her resume via her last try over this trip in autumn, while her first ever Group 1 win came second-up over this distance.
Roughie: 5. Warmonger. This is a starting point for the spring, with Warmonger being aimed at the Caulfield Cup, however, the penny may have simply dropped in his last start romp.
Warmonger is resuming from a 10.4-length demolition job in the Queensland Derby and he could easily be the rising star among these who is now ready to progress.
Admittedly his prior performances over shorter distances were in much weaker grade, but those runs showed he was much more than just a dour staying type.
Race 9 - 4:55PM HKJC World Pool Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m)
Best: 9. Right To Party. Figures indicate that she needs to improve again (slightly), however, Right To Party has handled every step over her recent winning streak.
The spaced-out winter period resulted in a winning hat-trick, with all three victories recorded up the Flemington straight and she's once again produced on the fresh side.
She was generous odds at $4 in the Auries's Star last time out and while she faces stiffer opposition here, Right To Party is flying and she's following a proven pattern.
Value: 13. Skybird. She was scratched from the Cockram Stakes due to a pre-race issue in the barrier stalls and Skybird has successfully completed a subsequent jump-out.
While little set-backs are never ideal, I feel this a better winning set-up for the talented four-year-old, with the two-time Group 2 winner on the 53kg minimum here.
The Paris Lane Stakes over seven furlongs at Flemington on October 5 looks a perfect second-up option for Skybird, but she still has the brilliance to figure in this.
Race 10 - 5:25PM Ronald McDonald House Charities Trophy (1700m)
Best: 6. Berkeley Square. There's some rain predicted on Saturday and while he isn't necessarily a mudlark, Berkeley Square will appreciate any sting out of the surface.
He's a still contender here regardless of the conditions and while he didn't deliver on the hype that was there early, he's still been competitive in stronger company.
First-up, Berkeley Square was out-sprinted by a smart Another Wil, but he picked up late (second-fastest last 200m and 400m of the card) and 1700m is ideal second-up.
Value: 8. Brayden Star. Coming out of the same Caulfield race on August 31 is Brayden Star and he had some excuses when held-up/crowded at a key stage there.
He probably wasn't travelling well enough irrespective, however, as a drifting 40/1 chance, the market suggested that the six-year-old would need that run.
His lead-up work also indicated that the recent blowout would be required, but with a soft map and decent second-up stats, he's among the leading chances in the last.
Verdict
Our best & value tips for Saturday's Flemington card are:
Growing Empire
To Win
$1.95 - 4 Units
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Wonder Boy
To Win
$2.70 - 4 Units
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Bandersnatch
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$14.00 - 1 Unit
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Berkeley Square
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$10.00 - 1 Unit
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