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Flemington Betting Tips for March 30, 2024 - Race-By-Race preview for Australian Cup day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 28 Mar 2024
Alex Marsh 28 Mar 2024
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  • Flemington host the Melbourne metro meeting on March 30
  • The track is currently in the Good 4 range
  • Five stakes races will be run on Saturday's program
  • Our race-by-race preview is included below
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Flemington Tips for 30.03.2024
The Group 1 Australian Cup headlines Saturday's Flemington card. (Getty)

Flemington hosts a ten-race program on March 30 and Saturday's preview is included below.
  • Flemington Tips March 30
  • Race 1 - 12:15PM Lexus Melbourne Cup Tour Handicap Tips (1100m)
  • Race 2 - 12:45PM Vale John Russell Tips (1100m)
  • Race 3 - 1:20PM Furphy Mile Tips (1600m)
  • Race 4 - 1:55PM TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 5 - 2:30PM AAT/Bob Hoysted Handicap Tips (1000m)
  • Race 6 - 3:05PM Rubaroc Grand Handicap Classic Tips (2000m)
  • Race 7 - 3:40PM Sunlight Classic Tips (1100m)
  • Race 8 - 4:15PM TAB Australian Cup Tips (2000m)
  • Race 9 - 4:55PM Lexus Roy Higgins Tips (2600m)
  • Race 10 - 5:35PM HKJC World Pool Handicap Tips (1400m)

Flemington Tips March 30


Race 1 - 12:15PM Lexus Melbourne Cup Tour Handicap Tips (1100m)


Best: 4. Rich Fortune. It's a tricky race to assess, as Rich Fortune is clearly a little below her best at present, but the four-year-old still brings the best form lines to this affair.

After a competitive showing at big price in the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning, the mare failed to figure when returning in Sydney, but she was back in a leader dominated race there.

There was good money for her ahead of that Rosehill attempt and with previous form around Rey Magnerio, Katsu and Imperatriz standing out, she'll have her admirers.

Value: 5. Either Oar. This is nice placement by Kembla Grange trainer Ross McConville to send Eaither Oar south, with the six-year-old back in trip off a freshen-up.

She failed to settle last start in the Triscay Stakes and tired late as a result, but her form prior to that had been consistent and there was depth to some of those Sydney BM78's.

The daughter of Unencumbered was a first-up winner over this distance at Randwick and from barrier eight, there's a good chance that she takes the lead here.

Race 2 - 12:45PM Vale John Russell Tips (1100m)


Best: 3. Midtown Boss. Although he's frustrated punters with three consecutive losses as fav, he still managed to finish runner-up in each of those attempts.

There has been some quality to those races, with Midtown Boss pacing behind Rey Magnerio, while the last form through Johnny Rocker stood up a Group 1 level last week.

He bolted him with a BM70 when carrying half a kilo more here fresh, where he put 2.5-lengths on Oakleigh Plate placegetter Mornington Glory and a repeat of that would win this.

Value: 1. Scissor Step. This McEvoy-trained galloper is a very capable sprinter when he's right and after a lean campaign last year, he returned in style on March 6.

Weight often matters little over sprint trips and he proved that via his Sandown triumph, with the five-year-old lumping 62kg to victory despite covering ground in that attempt.

That form has stood up with Pantelone beating a useful Mansiere on Wednesday and as a proven second-up horse who is back in form, he's a big price off that fresh win.

Race 3 - 1:20PM Furphy Mile Tips (1600m)


Best: 5. Frankie Pinot. This seven-year old is one of the more honest gallopers getting around in Victoria and with the blinkers back on the third-up, he's a good each-way chance.

The son of Your Song ran the best closing splits of the Listed Abell Stakes first-up at Mooney Valley before going to Sydney and carrying 61KG in a strong BM88.

Behind all-the-way winner Whinchat and a handy runner up in Tavi Time, Frankie Pinot stuck to the task as the pick of the chasers despite covering ground and that run should top him off nicely.
Value: 2. Bear Story. He was a stakes winner in Ireland before coming to Australia and that Listed win was no fluke, as he had placed multiple times at Group level ahead of that.

He couldn't quite put it together in his first prep over August and September last year, but these European imports often take a campaign to acclimatize and he's worked well leading into this.

With three jump-outs completed, including a recent hit out in fast time behind a smart Globe, there looks to be intent here fresh and the Ben Melham engagement supports that.

Race 4 - 1:55PM TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 6. Reasonable Point. Sent out at $15 despite showing promise in her lead-up work, Reasonable Point knuckled on jumping here and after settling at the rear, she had plenty of work to do.

The daughter of Blue Point got stronger as the 1100m dash wore on, recording easily the fastest last 200m of the race and 1200m is ideal off that performance.

I'm willing to put a line through her last performance in Sydney, where she was back, held-up and never able to blend in, but that trip away would've brought her on mentally.

Value: 11. Durova. On breeding, this filly should get over a little more ground in time, but she looked sharp enough in her Sydney trial on March 12 and we have to respect this aggressive placement.

Ciaron Maher sent her south after that Warwick Farm workout, where she tucked in behind runners before being eased out and she then worked through her gears with little effort.

They're not throwing Durova in the deep end on debut for a laugh and punters have seen that recent hit-out, with the filly specked at a price in the early markets.

Race 5 - 2:30PM AAT/Bob Hoysted Handicap Tips (1000m)


Best: 7. What You Need. This entire hasn't been seen since taking out the Listed Sunlight Classic on this program last year, where he made a decent lineup look rather second rate.

What You Need made it three-from-three in that Listed triumph, which followed a big win up the straight, while his debut victory at Geelong was to tune of four lengths.

This is a decent race and off such a long break, it'll be interesting to see what the market does late with the four-year-old, who has the best peak figure in this lineup.

Value: 8. Viviane. It's worth noting that last year's winning streak started third-up in what was a big winter and early spring for Viviane, who won five races on the trot over that period.

The Matthew Ellerton-trained mare arrives third-up off an improved last start showing, having just peaked late over the Caulfield 1000m after covering ground.

There's more quality to this affair, but with a fitness edge on most key rivals who have been freshened up/resuming off spells, that could be crucial late in a fast-run race.

Race 6 - 3:05PM Rubaroc Grand Handicap Classic Tips (2000m)


Best: 12. Sea What I See. Danny O'Brien is taking Sea What I See through her grades nicely and while this is her toughest assignment to date, it's not a vintage BM80 by any means.

After an impressive fresh victory in a Bendigo maiden that's produced four winners, the four-year-old only saluted narrowly at Mooney valley, but she was held-up for long periods there.

A longer winning margin returned via her last start romp on the Caulfield Heath circuit, where she gapped Nursery Chime, who is no slouch and the mare is superbly placed to salute again.
Value: 15. Bavicia. With a rating of only 67, connections could have found something easier for Bavicia, although as mentioned above, it's not a strong race for this benchmark.

The four-year-old is also very progressive and he's in very nice touch this prep, having saluted second-up after running good closing splits in a slick Bendigo return.

Nothing went right as a beaten fav third-up, where the gelding was slow to begin and with a big weight to carry there, having his momentum halted at stages proved costly.

Race 7 - 3:40PM Sunlight Classic Tips (1100m)


Best: 3. Stretan Angel. It's a hot race and while Stretan Angel will likely be peaking towards the Adelaide sprinting features later this autumn, she has to be respected here.

A big, strong three-year old from the Phillip Stokes yard, she showed above average ability over her first two preps last year, which included a straight track win in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes.

While she was at the end of her prep irrespective, the filly was perhaps written a little too warm in the Group 1 Coolmore before it break and she has moved well in recent jump-outs.

Value: 5. Hanchi. I wouldn't mind seeing this three-year-old in something a tad easier, but being VOBIS Silver eligible and coming from the west, connections aren't here to pick off low races.

After a pass mark on Melbourne debut at Caulfield, Hanchi improved when making his first straight-track appearance, where he was taking ground off Hedged late.

With a 1.5kg turnaround in the weights on that winner and with as much upside as Hedged, there isn't that much between the pair despite the market suggesting otherwise.

Race 8 - 4:15PM TAB Australian Cup Tips (2000m)


Best: 1. Mr Brightside. Although he's hasn't saluted in three prior attempts past a mile, Mr Brightside was narrowly defeated in the 2023 Cox Plate via his last try in this distance range.

With back-to-back Group 1 victories in the Cf Orr Stakes and Futurity Stakes, the six-year-old kicked off 2024 in style before running into a dominant Pride Of Jenni last start in the All-Star Mile.

A wide gate did prove costly via that March 27 attempt, where he was spotting them a start and chasing from a long way out, while the gelding now jumps from barrier one.

Next Best: 2. Cascadian. The three-time Group 1 winner Cascadian is aiming to defend his Australian Cup crown and the Godolphin veteran is ticking over well, arriving here off a third in the All-Star Mile.

Given he was held-up on return before what was a dash home in the Verry Elleegant Stakes second-up, that last start chasing effort in a fast-run affair should top him off nicely.

The nine-year-old had also completed just one spring run last year following an autumn prep that culminated in the All Aged Stakes, so he is building towards a peak performance.

Value: 9. Legarto. The New Zealand mare won the 2023 Australian Guineas via her only other try at Flemington and just a brief glance at that line-up shows the quality that Legarto has when she's right.

Although she arrives off a narrow loss as a $1.20 fav, the four-year-old ticked the 2000m box the start prior at Group 1 level and that recent clockwise defeat might be worth forgiving.

She's always looked more comfortable in the anti-clockwise direction and her stats back that up, with Legarto recording seven wins and a close third from eight runs on her Melbourne leg.

Race 9 - 4:55PM Lexus Roy Higgins Tips (2600m)


Best: 3. Dunkel. Perhaps the jury is out after the last Pakenham Cup failure, but as a galloper who was so genuine before that, I want to forgive Dunkel for one bad run.

A fast tempo seemed to bring him undone over the 2500m there, albeit Pakenham has been graveyard for many good horses, while he returned with cuts on the fetlock and heel.

As far as being a genuine stayer, we'll get a better guide after Saturday's outing, but with that fast-run 2500m run under the belt, the son of Dundeel can bounce off that.

Value: 6. Daqiansweet Junior. With no first-up form and resuming over 1800m of the Australian Cup Prelude, not much was expected from this six-year-old on March 9.

Daqiansweet Junior outperformed expectations in that fresh outing. where he continued to whack away in behind a soft winner and he was only half a length off Fawkner Park.

That winner franked the form with a big win in last Friday's Albury Cup and now in a much more suitable assignment over 2600m, he's among the major players in the Roy Higgins.

Race 10 - 5:35PM HKJC World Pool Handicap Tips (1400m)


Best: 2. Rheinberg. This is decent affair for BM84 standards and the safest way home is arguably Rheinberg, a five-year-old who has the ability to pick off stronger races this prep.

The ex-Kiwi has been a model of consistency since joining the Hayes yard, with five wins and three placings from his eight Australian starts, and there's been some depth among those events.

He lacked a sprinters turn-of-foot to put away an 1100m race fresh, but he was just edged out by Twin Perfection, who beat Midtown Boss the start prior and 1400m second-up is ideal.
Value: 14. Picaroon. She seemed to come from nowhere late in her first campaign for Tom Dabernig, with Picaroon bolting in fourth-up at Hamilton back in October.

The daughter of Fiorente then landed good bets in the Country Final at Flemington on Oaks Day and she was spelled after tiring late in the Group 3 Summoned Stakes at Caulfield.

Blake Shinn was aboard the mare in her Melbourne win over spring, so his engagement first-up is worth respecting, while her jump-out and trial leading in to this were both strong.

Verdict

Our best & value bets for Saturday's Flemington card are:

Best Bet1: Sea What I See To Win @5/4 at Ladbrokes Australia - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Midtown Boss To Win @23/10 at Neds - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Rheinberg To Win @38/11 at Boombet - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Reasonable Point Each Way @12/1 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
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Betting Slip | 30 Mar 2024

Flemington - March 30