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Flemington Betting Tips for March 2, 2024 - Race-By-Race preview for Australian Guineas day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 29 Feb 2024
Alex Marsh 29 Feb 2024
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  • Flemington host the Melbourne metro meeting on March 2
  • The track is currently in the Good 4 range
  • Can Bastille bounce back second-up?
  • A $7 selection has been tipped in the last
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Flemington Tips for 02.03.2024
The Group 1 Australian Guineas headlines Saturday's Flemington card. (Getty)

Flemington hosts a ten-race program on March 2 and Saturday's preview is included below.
  • Flemington Tips March 2
  • Race 1 - 12:15PM Resimax Group Plate Tips (1100m)
  • Race 2 - 12:45PM The Flemington 2000 Tips (2000m)
  • Race 3 - 1:20PM VRC Punters Club Sprint Tips (1200m)
  • Race 4 - 1:55PM Furphy Trophy Tips (1000m)
  • Race 5 - 2:30PM Off The Track Sprint Tips (1100m)
  • Race 6 - 3:05PM Good Friday Appeal Plate Tips (1600m)
  • Race 7 - 3:40PM Inglis Sprint Tips (1200m)
  • Race 8 - 4:15PM Howden Australian Guineas Tips (1600m)
  • Race 9 - 4:55PM TAB Blamey Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 10 - 5:35PM The Schweppes Plate Tips (1400m)

Flemington Tips March 2


Race 1 - 12:15PM Resimax Group Plate Tips (1100m)


Best: 1. Cinderella Days. This is a very winnable race for the ex-Sydneysider, with the four-year-old now under the care of Grahame Begg and she won a strong Cranbourne heat leading into this.

Her first two victories both came first-up, while a third behind In secret and Sunshine In Paris, along with a fourth at Group 3 level have been her last two fresh attempts.

The only speed to her inside appears to be End Journey, so Blake Shinn can be handy and in clear air via a small field from a wide draw.

Value: 6. End Journey. This is her hardest task to date, the four-year-old has done little wrong, having won three of four starts and she pulled up with excuses in the sole flop.

End Journey arrives over 2.5 length all-the-way victory at Mooney Valley and for the rise in grade second-up, she now plummets in the weights.

Although this is her first try past five furlongs, I don't think she'll have any trouble running the strong 1100m, however, she's an unknown up the straight course.

Race 2 - 12:45PM The Flemington 2000 Tips (2000m)


Best: 6. Claim The Crown. This is nice placement by Annabel Neasham, who brings Climb The Crown south for his third-up assignment, where he's suited up to 2000m now.

The gelding caught the eye late on return over 1500m before going to BM88 level and running an honest race on February 17, and he appeared to be looking for further there.

He has been settling back in his races, but with Blake Shinn now engaged and from barrier four over this further trip, he might be able to settle a few pairs closer in this field.

Value: 5. Up And Under. He had jumped out well ahead of his Australian debut on February 17 here, where the entire did make some inroads from the rear over 1600m.

Ultimately, Up And Under lacked turn-of-foot over the mile, especially from that position and as his European form backs up, getting over this further trip should suit.

From gate nine and being early in the prep, expect the Chris Waller-trained import to drop out the back and Craig Williams will look to chime in late.

Race 3 - 1:20PM VRC Punters Club Sprint Tips (1200m)


Best: 6. Big Watch. Arguably the safest option in a very open race is this Michael Moroney trained four-year-old, who was a last start winner here via an 1100m BM70.

He didn't want any shorter than that, so the extra 100m here is a positive and while he's up grade a little here, the form through the placegetters in his last event reads okay.

A hard-fit and mostly consistent type, Big Watch carries 1.5kg less for Saturday's assignment and having ticked the straight track box, he's among the leading chances here.
Value: 4. Blistering. She's generally thereabouts, so it was surprising to see her well beaten in her sole outing last campaign and Blistering was spelled straight after that.

A city class sprinter, who has been competitive in stronger races than this, the five-year-old arrives off two jump-outs and she won the last of those at Pakenham.

She's been effective first-up multiple times in the past and two preps back, the mare was runner-up behind Najem Suhail and Megamea, which is good reading for this grade.

Race 4 - 1:55PM Furphy Trophy Tips (1000m)


Best: 1. Bold Bastille. I just wonder whether the Blue Diamond came a little too soon, as Bold Bastille had only completed one jump-out and that was a very quiet workout.

While she failed as a short-priced fav in that February 10 outing. there were excuses for that plain performance, with the two-year-old pulling up lame there.

Coming back to five furlongs is a positive if anything and via her debut romp over this distance, she put three lengths on the subsequent Blue Diamond winner.

Value: 6. Always Enuff. A close relation to two-time Group winner Rich Enuff, the Shane Nichols-trained two-year-old is the pick of the first starters from the jump-outs.

Having completed three workouts leading into this and bolting via the last two, Always Enuff is clearly wound up enough four Saturday's debut attempt.

She's got great tactical speed, while the filly looks well suited to sitting on the tempo and rolling along over 1000m, so it'll be interesting to see what the betting does late with her.

Race 5 - 2:30PM Off The Track Sprint Tips (1100m)


Best: 5. Moesha. She looks a coming stakes winner and although they were too sharp for her first-up over this trip, it was a lovely return and this is a different set-up via the straight.

After sitting wide via a brilliant maiden victory at start two, she was badly held-up at Sandown before finishing fourth in a Group 2 over 1400m at Caulfield, where she covered ground. 

That Group 3 Kevin Hayes form should stack up in this and while I would like to see her over 1200m-1400m soon, Moesha has the class to get away with this.

Value: 7. Bonnie Amore. She's coming straight from a country maiden romp, however, the depth of this three-year old affair is questionable and Bonnie Amore looks above average.

The Greg Eurell-trained filly couldn't have done anymore in that Kyneton affair, where she exploded late to salute by six lengths and the change up speed was impressive.

She showed a turn-of-foot in what was a very slowly run race and that's often a handy trait to have when coming to the straight course sprints, as many of these are run in similar fashion.

Race 6 - 3:05PM Good Friday Appeal Plate Tips (1600m)


Best: 6. Another Wil. I'd be interested to know that Ciaron Maher's thoughts regarding a comparison with Another Will and Jimmysstar, two horses with similarish profiles.

As we saw with the stablemate, $1.26 doesn't make you a certainty and while punters will have that in the back of their minds regarding Another Will, don't expect the bookies to be too generous.

This is much harder coming from BM70 company, however, he couldn't have been any more impressive at Caulfierld last start and the four-year-old carries 4kg less here third-up.
Value: 4. Karburan. Given both of his wins in Europe were over staying trips, the OTI import was always going to be a big price resuming over a mile.

The Busuttin & Young yard often have these types forward enough fresh and Karburan has been ticking over well in three jump-outs, which have all been over 1000m at Cranbourne.

He wasn't beaten far on debut over 1700m, so while the gelding is expected to improve as the distances increase, he might not be just a one-dimensional stayer.

Race 7 - 3:40PM Inglis Sprint Tips (1200m)


Best: 1. Caballus. Darby Racing have almost recouped what they paid for Caballus, with the colt unbeaten from two runs for the new yard and his last start form reads very well for this.

Bjorn Baker is keeping the three-year old at sprint trips for now and after saluting as a good thing should first-up, he backed it up with a Group 3 win at his latest.

Through the likes of Celestial Legend, Tom Kitten and Makarena, that Eskimo Prince Stakes form does stand out here, while Sydney hoop Josh Parr travels south for the ride.

Value: 16. Midnight Opal. Nathan Doyle is still an underrated trainer and make no mistake, he'll have Midnight Opal ready to go for this $1 million sprint.

These Inglis races are often limited in regards to depth and while this affair looks no exception, this colt could be one of the more progressive horses to come from this race.

He showed versatility when recording back-to-back wins last spring before an unlucky fourth in a listed race at Randwick and the three-year-old ran the fastest last 400m of that affair.

Race 8 - 4:15PM Howden Australian Guineas Tips (1600m)


Best: 1. Riff Rocket. Although there's some very capable rivals from the CS Hayes who are lining up here, I'm struggling to go past the Chris Waller-trained gelding when assessing that last start reference.

Even with improvement to come over a more suitable distance in the Australian Guineas, Riff Rocket was still too brilliant over 1400m and he's won his last three at Flemington.

He got away with 2500m of the VRC Derby on ability and connections feel the same, as he'll be kept in the 1600m-200m range this campaign and a mile could be the sweet spot.

Value: 5. Zipaway. This galloper was very genuine in Perth, winning three times and placing three times from eight starts, while the other two runs resulted in fourth-place finishes at Listed level.

Zipaway finished alongside Dom To Shoot and Zaaki in the Group 1 Northerly Stakes, which is terrific form coming back to three-year old grade and he won a hot WA Guineas before that.

Although Zipaway had residual fitness from the Perth Carnival, he needed at the Caulfield blowout and with improvement to come for a target race, he's very dangerous here.

Race 9 - 4:55PM TAB Blamey Stakes Tips (1600m)


Best: 11. Berkeley Square. This is comfortably the most open race on the entire program and while you will have to throw 15 of them in at this stage, it could easily be a field leg of the quality.

One of the chances that's a double figure quote is Berkeley Square and while most punters have dropped off him after his last campaign, his return run was underrated.

The Group 2 winner was held up from the 500m-250m and his late splits were respectable, while he'd only completed one fair jump-out, so there's clearly improvement to come.

Value: 4. Muramasa. He was one of the finds of the spring carnival, with the four-year-old winning his first three in that last prep, having been gelded following his three-year-old season.

At WFA level and on an unsuitable soft going, I wouldn't be penning Muramasa of his Zipping Classic flop and with excuses post-race, he was spelled after that.

This is a little short of his ideal trip, although he won well first-up over the Flemington mile last time in and he has less convictions than many of his rivals.

Race 10 - 5:35PM The Schweppes Plate Tips (1400m)


Best: 4. Arran Bay. There was a change of tactics first-up with Arran Bay, with connections opting for a colder ride fresh and without favours, he's performed very well on return.

He did his fair share of chasing from back in the field and while many of his rivals who finished around him enjoyed softer runs in transit, this gelding was wide and without cover.

Arran Bay has gone as well as anything behind the winner and that's with no winning fresh form, however, he has terrific second-up stats and he maps for more favours here.
Value: 6. Royal Mile. He was an ATM for punters as a late three-year-old in Adelaide, where he won four in a row and was decent odds on each occasion.

Considering the promise he showed there in 2021, which included back-to-back stakes wins, Royal Mile has been disappointing subsequently, but his rating is dropping as a result.

Now with an 84 rating, he can be placed softer and while his first prep for the new yard fell away, the best run was comfortably the return effort, where 1200m was too sharp.

Verdict

Our best & value bets for Saturday's Flemington card are:

Best Bet1: Bold Bastille To Win @6/5 at bet365 Australia - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Moesha To Win @41/10 at Boombet - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Cinderella Days To Win @57/20 at Boombet - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Arran Bay To Win @6/1 at PlayUP - 1 Unit
Bold Bastille
To Win
@6/5 - 4 Units
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Moesha
To Win
@41/10 - 3 Units
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Cinderella Days
To Win
@57/20 - 2 Units
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Arran Bay
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Betting Slip | 02 Mar 2024

Flemington - March 2