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Flemington Betting Tips for November 11, 2023 - Race-By-Race preview for Champions day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 09 Nov 2023
Alex Marsh 09 Nov 2023
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  • Get our tips and best bets for the Flemington Races
  • They host a nine race meeting on November 11
  • The track should start in the Good 4 range
  • Our race-by-race preview for Champions Day is included below
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Flemington Tips for 11.11.2023
Three Group 1's feature on Saturday's Flemington card. (Getty)

Flemington hosts a nine-race program on November 11 and our free betting tips and best bets are available.
  • Flemington Tips November 11
  • Race 1 - 12:40PM Australian Childhood Foundation Trophy Tips (1600m)
  • Race 2 - 1:15PM Resimax Group Always Welcome Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 3 - 1:50PM The Amanda Elliott Tips (1400m)
  • Race 4 - 2:30PM Queen Elizabeth Stakes Tips (2600m)
  • Race 5 - 3:10PM TAB Matriarch Stakes Tips (2000m)
  • Race 6 - 3:50PM Darley Champions Sprint Tips (1200m)
  • Race 7 - 4:30PM Kennedy Champions Mile Tips (1600m)
  • Race 8 - 5:10PM TAB Champions Stakes Tips (2000m)
  • Race 9 - 5:50PM World Horse Racing Grand Handicap Tips (1100m)
  • Flemington Quaddie Tips:

Our Flemington best bets are provided by expert form analysts and tipsters, while a preview of Saturday's meeting is included below.


Flemington Tips November 11


Race 1 - 12:40PM Australian Childhood Foundation Trophy Tips (1600m)


Best: 6. Von Hauke. Having opened his spring prep with a return win in a decent form race followed by a fifth when working home in a leader-dominated race, he looked close to a good thing on Geelong Cup day.

While he had to settle for third in that last attempt, that performance had plenty of merit, as Von Hauke failed to settle on the speed in a race that was set up for a swooper.

He won't run out a mile if he does that again, however, with a cross-over nose band on to help him relax and a soft draw, the gelding can atone here if he behaves.
Value: 4. Excelleration. This seven-year-old is consistent, with four wins and seven placings from 14 starts, and he generally comes to hand early, with three of those victories coming either first or second-up.

Excelleration resumed over this track/trip last December, where he was runner-up to Pounding and that winner won his next two, which includes a two-length Group 3 triumph.

A tactically versatile galloper, Excelleration has completed three jump-outs, although he hasn't been since hitting the line well in the last of those on September 28.

Race 2 - 1:15PM Resimax Group Always Welcome Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 7. Vespertine. This is arguably the most open race of the card given the queries on the market elects, with Parisal looking to bounce back off a poor run, while It'sourtime and General Beau don't win out of turn.

At a long price, an each-way case to be made for Vespertine, who was a Listed winner over this track/trip last spring and it's worth noting that victory also came second-up.

Coming back from a Brisbane Winter prep, she found the 1100m too sharp fresh, but the mare was okay late and down in the weights, this sets up better over 1200m.

Value: 8. Unusual Culture. In terms of honesty, you would take Unusual Culture over most of these and as a five-year-old resuming off a career-best prep, Maher & Eustace will have a black-type race in mind.

As a galloper who is more effective around 1400m-1600m, that target is likely in another run or two, however, she has placed in her last two first-up runs over this journey.

Whether she's sharp enough to beat out-and-out sprinters is the query, but she was forward in a recent jump-out win and all of her rivals here have convictions.

Race 3 - 1:50PM The Amanda Elliott Tips (1400m)


Best: 6. Schwarz. Given it's only his first prep, I felt they may have spelled Schwarz after his latest and focused on next year, but I'm more than happy to trust the camp, as I think he's got a fair bit on these if right.

After bolting at Gosford on debut, the John O'Shea-trained colt reared as the gates opened when contesting the Group 2 Red Anchor Stakes via the last on Cox Plate day.

It was an enormous effort to then recover and get home strongly for fourth, with his 11.19 last 200m was the fastest of the race and off that, 1400m should be fine.

Value: 9. Miss Aria. Getting back up in trip should suit this well-bred filly, who is by Zoustar and out of four-time Group winner in Bonaria, who won the Group 1 Myer Classic (Empire Rose) here back in 2014.

Danny O'Brien often takes these middle-distance types through the country grades before they rise in trip, so to debut her up the straight suggests there's an opinion.

Freshened after taking out a Geelong maiden on August 25, Miss Aria was then held up in a muddling Sandown race, but the Caulfield response was a lot more encouraging.

Race 4 - 2:30PM Queen Elizabeth Stakes Tips (2600m)


Best: 9. Muramasa. Despite showing potential in his first prep, Muramasa wasn't able to progress via his second three-year-old campaign and as a result, connections decided to geld the son of Deep Impact.

His dam (Omei Sword) was a very talented galloper, albeit on who didn't fulfill her potential and with this being her first foal, she may leave her mark in he breeding barn.

Muramasa is unbeaten since the ultimate gear change, with both victories quite soft and while the 2600m is a new challenge, he's on the minimum as the in-form runner.
Value: 13. Taramansour. Approaching and passing the 100m, he experienced some difficulty obtaining clear running in the Bendigo Cup last start and without that trouble, Taramansour arguably wins that event.

The Bendigo Cup is often a decent form reference for this and in the last few years, it's stacked up okay in the Melbourne Cup, with Interpretation running sixth on Tuesday.

The seven-year-old has turned a corner since joining the Phillip Stokes yard, having recorded two wins and a fifth before the Bendigo Cup, and he'll only strip fitter here.

Race 5 - 3:10PM TAB Matriarch Stakes Tips (2000m)


Best: 5. Thalassophile. On an each-way basis, we were with this Chris Waller-trained mare third-up in the Tesio Stakes, where she was held up at key stages before finishing second behind an in-form Wishlor Lass.

Along with being Group 1 competitive last Saturday, that winner had beaten Barbie's Fox and Foxy Frida the start prior and that form should be holding up in the Matriarch.

Thalassophile is a very honest campaigner who is building into the prep well and now suited at Flemington fourth-up, she should be thereabouts again with even luck.

Value: 11. She's A Con. She was interestingly scratched from a much easier assignment on Thursday's Oaks card and given the ex-Kiwi already has black-type on her resume, she must be going very well.

A galloper who won her last two in New Zealand, which included a 2000m Listed affair in April, She's A Con was solid over the Caulfield 1400m in her first run for Grahame Begg.

She was then back and left flat-footed at Group 3 level, but with intent shown via a subsequent jump-out win, surely they're more positive third-up from a good draw.

Race 6 - 3:50PM Darley Champions Sprint Tips (1200m)


Best: 8. Imperatriz. While her spring has still been terrific irrespective of this result, Te Akau will be desperate for this feature, as it's the strongest race she's seen all prep and they'll want to silence any flat-track bully talk.

They now face In Secret, a Godolphin mare who recorded one of the more eye-catching performances of that Randwick feature and it's worth noting that her two biggest wins have come up the straight.

On the other hand, Imperatriz hasn't raced on the straight circuit at headquarters, but given her versatility and class, I don't see her having a problem with it, especially given she jumps from a wider barrier.

Value: 5. Airman. Given the leap in grade following a BM94 victory where he exploded down in the weights, the Team Hawkes sprinter acquitted himself very well as runner-up, where he split I Am Me and Bella Nipotina.

That form was franked with Bella Nipotina upsetting Think About It and Private Eye last Saturday, and despite having no wins from seven starts up the straight, that mare is less than half his quote in this Group 1.

Airman won his only start up the Flemington straight back in May before a spell and he's been ticking over nicely since his latest attempt, with the gelding trialling superbly at Rosehill on Monday.

Race 7 - 4:30PM Kennedy Champions Mile Tips (1600m)


Best: 6. Fangirl. She was unlucky in the Cox Plate, with the three-time Group 1 winner finding plenty of traffic in an eventual midfield finish and while it's inconclusive, I think she's far more effective over a mile.

Another key to this mare is firm ground and with clear skies from Thursday onwards, she'll get underfoot conditions to suit, while the Pride Of Jenni acceptance appears to be another positive here.

With that confirmed front-runner likely to run them along, that sets up ideally for Fangirl in this small field, as J-Mac can ride her cold, yet still keep a close eye on both Alligator Blood and Mr Brightside.
Value: 5. Victoria Road. While he wasn't disgraced in the Cox Plate, connections will still be doing some soul-searching following that run, with the entire now under the care of Ciaron Maher & David Eustace.

The new yard is working out Victoria Road and with Ryan Moore here for Melbourne Cup day, they reportedly picked his brains and the champion hoop suggested a drop in trip, along with a colder ride.

The market is firmly with Fangirl, Mr Brightside and Alligator Blood, who are arguably Australia's three best milers, but if there's a blowout with a platform to improve out of sight, then this is the one.

Race 8 - 5:10PM TAB Champions Stakes Tips (2000m)


Best: 11. Prowess. Form-wise, there's no knock at all on West Wind Blows, with the market elect's outstanding references both from the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup making him a much-deserved favourite here.

While the English raider also appears suited back in trip to 2000m, the rise to this journey third-up could see Prowess explode in the Champions Stakes, with the Kiwi a more brilliant galloper than the fav.

She was a genuine Cox Plate contender before an interrupted campaign forced connections to focus on the back end of the carnival and with a mile win now under the belt, they've timed this extremely well.

Value: 2. Huetor. Although he's a hard one to trust, given the Team Snowden import tends to mix his form, his last two Australian triumphs have both come in the Doomben Cup, a Group 1 WFA contest run over 2000m.

After upsetting Zaaki in the first, Huetor had to wait another 12 months to roll the same horse again and this year's field also included Kovalica, Duais and Atishu, with the latter two both single figures here.

That reference alone warrants respect here, especially considering his price in the Champions Stakes and he does arrive third-up off an unlucky Craven Plate tilt, where the gelding got warm late.

Race 9 - 5:50PM World Horse Racing Grand Handicap Tips (1100m)


Best: 9. Kin. I'm still not sure why they insist in rounding out the Melbourne Cup Carnival with a benchmark race (no issues with it on the card, but move it earlier in the day and sign off with the Champions Stakes).

We've still got to find a winner, though and while it's a rather competitive early market, don't be surprised if the J-Mac and Godolphin combo are launched late by punters.

A four-year-old who was very competitive twice in stronger straight races last season. Kin has some decent form over the journey and she's well-placed in a weak race fresh.

Value: 12. Prairie Flower. Bews is around $7-$8 here and coming out of the same race is this four-year-old, who threaded a passage through late to grab second there and she was completely unwanted in betting.

Aside from a March flop, which she quickly atoned for, Prairie Flower hasn't finished out of the money up the Flemington straight, which includes a third behind She Dances.

The daughter of Star Turn should have more improvement to come than a hard-fit Bews, while her autumn form in Adelaide last campaign reads very well for this.


Flemington Quaddie Tips:


Race 6: 2,5,7,8
Race 7: 5,6
Race 8: 2,3,4,9,11
Race 9: 1,2,9,10,12

$200 gets you 100% of the Quaddie.

Verdict

Our Flemington best & value bets for Thursday, November 11 are:

Best Bet1: Schwarz To Win @9/5 at Ladbrokes Australia - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Muramasa To Win @16/5 at Bet Right - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Prowess To Win @28/5 at Boombet - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Thalassophile Each Way @13/2 at Justbet - 1 Unit
Schwarz
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Prowess
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Betting Slip | 11 Nov 2023

Flemington - November 11