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Flemington Betting Tips for November 4, 2023 - Race-By-Race preview for Victoria Derby day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 03 Nov 2023
Alex Marsh 03 Nov 2023
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  • Get our tips and best bets for the Flemington Races
  • They host a nine race meeting on November 4
  • The track is currently a Good 4
  • Our race-by-race preview for Derby Day is included below
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Flemington Tips for 04.11.2023
Nine Group races feature on Flemington's Derby Day program. (Getty)

Flemington hosts a nine-race program on November 4 and our free betting tips and best bets are available.
  • Flemington Tips November 4
  • Race 1 - 12:20PM Network 10 Carbine Club Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 2 - 1:00PM Lexus Archer Stakes Tips (2500m)
  • Race 3 - 1:40PM Furphy Sprint Tips (1100m)
  • Race 4 - 2:20PM Racing And Sports Rising Fast Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 5 - 3:00PM TAB Wakeful Stakes Tips (2000m)
  • Race 6 - 3:40PM Coolmore Stud Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 7 - 4:20PM Penfolds Victoria Derby Tips (2500m)
  • Race 8 - 5:00PM TAB Empire Rose Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 9 - 5:40PM The Damien Oliver Tips (1400m) 

Our Flemington best bets are provided by expert form analysts and tipsters, while a preview of Saturday's meeting is included below.


Flemington Tips November 4


Race 1 - 12:20PM Network 10 Carbine Club Stakes Tips (1600m)


Best: 2. Heman. I thought he was a live chance in last Saturday's Callander-Presnell, but presumably due to a wide alley, Team Snowden opted to scratch Heman and he now has a low barrier for the first time.

A colt that looks ready to eat up the 1600m third-up, he was doing his best work late second-up over 1400m in the Tapp-Craig, which was taken out by a smart Makerena.

He nearly grabbed Encap there, who was just rolled the start before in the Group 1 Golden Rose and Callander-Presnell winner Chrsaor was produced from that same race.
Value: 9. Just In Time. Sent out as a $1.50 fav on debut at Newcastle, Just In Time got the job done in that first race day appearance, where the filly pulled away late after a brief challenge in that maiden run.

She steps quickly to 1600m, but being by American Triple Crown winner Justify and coming from the same family Special Harmony (VRC Oaks winner), she's bred to get a trip.

The Richard & Will Freedman yard generally takes these progressive types through the lower grades, so there's clearly an opinion of her and she will settle on the speed.

Race 2 - 1:00PM Lexus Archer Stakes Tips (2500m)


Best: 2. Kalapour. Arguably the most open race on this year's Derby Day program is the Lexus and while there are only seven acceptors for this 2500m Group 3, you could make a case for any of these runners.

A lightly raced seven-year-old, Kalapour is going well without winning in NSW, where he has been giving weight to the likes of Military Mission, Just Fine, Land Legend and Cleveland.

All four of those runners have been in decent touch and two of them are recent Melbourne victors, while given the set-up here, it does look very winnable off recent form.

Value: 7. Speak. This is a big rise in class off her two assignments to date in Australia, however, she is heading in the right direction and being so lightly tried, Speak could be the one with upside here third-up.

After a luckless attempt over the Flemington 1800m fresh, the five-year-old contested the Pinker Pinker Plate and she likely wins that Cranbourne feature with more intent.

Speak was tried over similar journeys at starts four, five and six before joining Michael Moroney, a trainer who often uses this race for a late Melbourne Cup bid.

Race 3 - 1:40PM Furphy Sprint Tips (1100m)


Best: 6. Rose Quartz. Another competitive affair is this mares dash and while it's just about D-Day for Rose Quartz, she is knocking on the door and third-up off a strong run without favours, she's found her right race.

A galloper with a good straight-track record, the mare was three-wide and working throughout at Caulfield last start, yet was only denied by She Dances, who won again last Friday.

With injury forcing Cup's chance Lunar Flare into retirement along with Magic Time's brave and luckless Invitation run, trainer Grahame Begg is due for some luck this week.

Value: 12. South Of Houston. With just the five starts to her name, this Price & Kent (jnr)-trained sprinter is the least exposed runner in the field, but there's no doubt that she'll be wound up for this.

Tipped out after winning two of four in her second prep, which includes a straight-course triumph, South Of Houston arrives to this Group 3 off two slick jump-out wins.

A four-year-old who should come to hand earlier this in with a shorter turnaround, 1100m for her is ideal fresh and while there are other speed influences, she could still lead.

Race 4 - 2:20PM Racing And Sports Rising Fast Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 5. Triple Missile. Along with having some setbacks over the last 12 months, Triple Missile has received a few average steers in his last two straight-track appearances and one of those was in this race last year.

The gelding was cruising, but unfortunately the timing was off (too late) and fresh this prep in the Gilgai, it was much the same, whereas the in-form winner was wound right up.

Hopefully, he can stay sound for connections, as on peak figures, he's a Group 1 sprinter and with J-Mac now in the saddle, Triple Missile gets every chance to atone here.
Value: 2. Chain Of Lightning. As opposed to the last few years, the Moody & Coleman runners aren't generally as wound up early in a prep as they once were, with many of them now working into a campaign with racing.

That appeared to be the case with Chain Of Lightning fresh, where she was off the bridle early before picking up and the mare was only a few strides from nailing Uncommon on James.

Although that QLD sprinter hasn't performed at his best this spring, he's still been Group 1 placed twice behind Imperatriz either side of that Schillaci Stakes.

Race 5 - 3:00PM TAB Wakeful Stakes Tips (2000m)


Best: 1. Zardozi. This Godolphin filly brings longer starting prices and needs to tick the 2000m box, however, she's getting stronger as the spring wears on and against mostly limited rivals, she could be too brilliant here.

After showing promise in her prep, where she was unbeaten from three outings, big defeats to start her second campaign in the Silver Shadow and Tea Rose left question marks.

With the lugging bit and pre-race ear muffs on after those fllops, Zardozi has come on since venturing south and she was luckless at Sandown before that Manifold victory.

Value: 10. Aethelflaed. Having specked her each-way at $151/$41 for the VRC Oaks after her second start, I'm hoping that this Matthew Smith-trained filly can at last perform well with that 2500m feature in mind.

A half-sister to 2020 New Zealand Derby winner Sherwood Forest, Aethelflaed has a lovely staying pedigree and the last-start Kembla win warrants the trip south for the Oaks.

Given she was back and briefly held up in a muddling affair, it was a big win over the 10 furlongs and from a wide alley, Oliver will likely ride her cold and finish off late.

Race 6 - 3:40PM Coolmore Stud Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 18. Stretan Angel. Fillies do have a good recent record in this feature, having won three of the last five editions and the leading female hope in 2023 is Stretan Angel, who won the Group 2 Danehill Stakes on October 7.'

That form through Archo Narcho is starting to read well, while you can also tie it through Cylinder, given I Am Stoppable was a close-up third behind the current fav when resuming at Caulfield.

Importantly, Stretan Angel was able to slide forward (without cover) and given they often don't go as fast up the Flemington straight, her ability to sprint off any tempo will hold her in good stead.
Value: 9. Scheelite. Although he was one of many who was unsuited in the Caulfield Guineas, I suspect a mile is a tad far for this three-year-old, albeit he was still competitive there and found trouble late in the piece.

That performance and the Guineas Prelude effort idicates there isn't necessarily that much between Scheelite and Steparty, with this colt unsuited all prep via four outings at Caulfield.

The question will be how much petrol is left in the tank, however, coming out of a slowly run race helps in that regard and being one of only three straight-track winners in the field is also a tick.

Race 7 - 4:20PM Penfolds Victoria Derby Tips (2500m)


Best: 4. Riff Rocket. While he arrives off a narrow loss as a $1.28 favourite in the Caulfield Classic, Riff Rocket couldn't have done anymore given the race shape and with this Group 1 as the target, that run was fine.

The gelding returns to the scene of his 5.5-length romp when third-up in the Super Impose Stakes and in that affair, he belted the likes of Sunsets and Apuila, who are two of his bigger threats here.

With gate five, he was one of the big winners at the barrier draw, as J-Mac can settle put Riff Rocket to sleep early without working and give him a perfect trail behind the leading few pairs.

Value: 8. Gates. After covering ground in a 1500m fresh win, he was scratched from the Super Impose Stakes won by Riff Rocket and as a result, Gates was a month between runs over 2000m in the Caulfield Classic.

Back and unsuited in that affair, the three-year-old did well to grab fourth after being ridden for luck and on the line, he wasn't far off Apulia and he has arguably more upside than the second fav.

The Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman-trained colt is a beautiful type and with the Victoria Derby as the target assignment, expect the big, strong son of Frankel to be peaking here.

Race 8 - 5:00PM TAB Empire Rose Stakes Tips (1600m)


Best: 3. Hope In Your Heart. While she's yet to land a Group 1 victory, she was one of the more consistent mares in Australia last season, having recorded three Group wins in that period, while she was Group 1 placed.

12 months ago, the daughter of Dundeel arguably should've won a strong Golden Eagle and she finished fourth in that feature, where the trifecta was filled by I Wish I Win, Fangirl and Gypsy Goddess.

Given he's been aboard for three of her last four wins, the engagement of Tim Clark is a positive and with even luck in transit from barrier one, Hope In Your Heart has to be in the mix.
Value: 15. Ausbred Flirt. While Alcohol Free has runs on the board, mainly from overseas as a four-time Group 1 winner in Europe, the price discrepancy is too big between her and Ausbred Flirt from last week's clash.

That pair met in The Invitation at Randwick and while Alcohol Free had every chance having settled outside of the leader early, Ausbred Flirt was in transit and held up until the 100m.

Despite their different fortunes, there was under a length separating them and while both are queries backing up with interstate travel, we're at least getting a price for the five-year-old.

Race 9 - 5:40PM The Damien Oliver Tips (1400m) 


Best: 12. Kalino. The commentary/attention surrounding Antino's luckless Victorian debut appearance was warranted, but with the focus all on the Queenslander, Kalino's performance in that race was underrated.

Having been held up from the 500m to the 300m, where he then was forced to switch heels and come to the outside, the son of Pierro didn't have favours in that Listed triumph.

Kalino has always been at his most dangerous when fresh, so the let-up here is a positive and along being well-weighted, gate 10 allows him to blend in off a strong tempo.

Value: 15. Lord Vladivostok. As a Group/Listed class performer in South Australia, this is as far as he can go class-wise and on the 53kg minimum, Lord Vladivostok does get a weight pull off the better-credentialed rivals.

This honest campaigner from the astute Michael Hickmott yard couldn't be going any better and that was evident fresh when saluting over 1250m (never won first-up before that).

He gave 8kg and a beating to Chicago Storm in the process, a talented horse who will compete over cup week and second-up, he should've won again in a fast-run Murray Bridge Cup.

Verdict

Our Flemington best & value bets for Saturday, November 4 are:

Best Bet1: Triple Missile To Win @27/10 at Topsport - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Heman To Win @5/2 at Ladbrokes Australia - 4 Units
Best Bet3: Stretan Angel Each Way @9/1 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Kalino Each Way @8/1 at Bet Right - 1 Unit
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Betting Slip | 04 Nov 2023

Flemington - November 4