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Flemington Betting Tips for March 11, 2023 - Race-By-Race preview for Newmarket Handicap day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 10 Mar 2023
Alex Marsh 10 Mar 2023
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  • Get our tips and best bets for the Flemington Races
  • They host a big nine race program this Saturday
  • The track is currently a Good 4 and the rail is out 4 metres
  • Our race-by-race preview for March 11 is included below
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Flemington Tips for 11.03.2023
The Group 1 Newmarket Handicap headlines Saturday's Flemington meeting. (Getty)
 

Flemington hosts a nine race program on March 11 and our free betting tips and best bets are available.
  • Flemington Tips March 11
  • Race 1 - 12:35PM Rubaroc Grand Hcp Classic Prelude Tips (2000m)
  • Race 2 - 1:10PM VRC Member James Matthies Sprint Tips (1100m)
  • Race 3 - 1:45PM TAB Kewney Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 4 - 2:20PM MSS Security Sires' Produce Stakes Tips (1400m)
  • Race 5 - 3:00PM Matron Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 6 - 3:40PM TAB Australian Cup Prelude Tips (2000m)
  • Race 7 - 4:20PM Yulong Stud Newmarket Handicap Tips (1200m)
  • Race 8 - 5:00PM Furphy Shaftesbury Avenue Handicap Tips (1400m)
  • Race 9 - 5:40PM Cirka Plate Tips (1400m)
  • Flemington FAQs

Our Flemington best bets are provided by expert form analysts and tipsters, and a preview of Saturday's racing is below.


Flemington Tips March 11


Race 1 - 12:35PM Rubaroc Grand Hcp Classic Prelude Tips (2000m)


Selections: 4,2,1,3.

Gate two in a small field could be sticky for 4. SHOCK 'EM OVA, although he's the most progressive horse in this line-up and third-up now, he should be ready to fire. Gets his first look at a big and spacious circuit, with the son of Shocking negotiating Cranbourne and The Valley so far. He had excuses second-up and carries 3kg less here.

2. Sparkle is on the seven-day turnaround, with the Danny O'Brien import lacking a turn-of-foot at 1600m vs Munhamek and Kettle Hill last week, but she still whacked away. Shinn may look to cross and lead.

1. Alverdun pinched a break on Shock Em' Ova last start and it was a soft win. The fav has more in his favour here, including a 3kg weight swing.

3. Independent Road has been thereabouts in similar company and is a top three/four hope once again.


Race 2 - 1:10PM VRC Member James Matthies Sprint Tips (1100m)


Selections: 6,7,2,3.

Interesting resumer is 6. WHAT YOU NEED, who was spelled after a debut romp last Aug, where he put four lengths on Lascars, a Godolphin runner that won in town next start and first-up that winter, was 1.25 lengths off Giga Kick, who is the best sprinter in Aus. He's short enough, but that stands out and this is a weak race.

Respecting 7. Fasuto fresh, who returns gelded and the recent jump-outs have been sharp. After bolting in fresh in Dec, he was fancied in a handy race at The Valley and was tipped straight out after that third.

2. Millane gets the blinkers back on and should find this easier. An expensive colt that's been poorly placed, he might be a few stones lighter soon.

3. Kaygeebee is a speedy gelding who was unbeaten in his first prep and he's worked well ahead of this


Race 3 - 1:45PM TAB Kewney Stakes Tips (1600m)


Selections: 9,7,3,1.

From the Angus Armanasco, the price discrepancy between 9. ETERNAL FLAME and Shuffle Dancer is insane, with the fav allowed to slide-up without trouble and be the best suited in a sprint home, whereas this filly was in traffic until it was all over. The key to her prior win was galloping room on a big track, so the wide barrier suits.

Damian Lane will be looking cross earlier and make amends on 7. Papillon Club from the Vanity, where she covered ground in a brave attempt. She was also seven weeks between runs in that performance.

3. Shuffle Dancer was five weeks between runs at Sandown, arriving off a freshen as she'd been up a while. Happy to look around her in this.

1. Revolutionary Miss was okay in the Surround and Light Fingers. This is a little easier third-up.

Eternal Flame - $27.00Flemington Race Threebet now
New customers only. 18+ T&Cs and wagering requirements apply.

Race 4 - 2:20PM MSS Security Sires' Produce Stakes Tips (1400m)


Selections: 11,13,7,3.

Good race, but a tough one and there's plenty of angles. 11. DUBENENKO arguably should've won the Blue Diamond, having been held-up off the speed before launching late and while that doesn't necessarily equal her running a strong seven furlongs, that's the best form reference in this field. Has another tricky barrier, though.

Off her Lonhro Plate debut, where she rattled home despite racing greenly, 13. Portorosa should be half her current quote ($21.00 @ Neds). Visually, her last effort looked plain, but she was in the inferior going at Randwick.

7. Veight looked like a superstar in a first start demolition at Pakenham, although that maiden didn't rate that well and he didn't beat up on much.

3. Ganbare finds a much more suitable race, stepping to 1400m after two decent chasing efforts in Sydney.

Dubenenko - $5.00Flemington Race Fourbet now
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Stay in Control. Gamble Responsibly. Think! About your choices. Call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Race 5 - 3:00PM Matron Stakes Tips (1600m)


Selections: 8,2,4,3.

While 8. SO YOU SEE is up in grade, she arguably should've won the Kewney this time last year and that was at start two following a debut victory. This four-year-old broke a little drought on Jan 7 and after pulling up with genuine excuses on Feb 4, she bounced back last start, where she was comfortably the pick of the swoopers.

2. Inspirational Girl has done plenty in the lead-up and she generally comes to hand early. Beat Zaaki over this track/trip and placed first-up behind Mr Brightside in spring. That's superb reading for a mares race.

A slow getaway proved costly for 4. Excelida second-up, but she still made a stack of ground for third behind Annavisto. Is 0/4 over a mile, though.

For such an honest galloper, 3. Barb Raider was plain first-up on Feb 25. Can improve and will need to.

So You See - $7.00Flemington Race Fivebet now
The Neds.com.au code is BESTBETS. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Chances are you’re about to lose.

Race 6 - 3:40PM TAB Australian Cup Prelude Tips (2000m)


Selections: 11,4,8,7.

Any of these could win without surprising. To bring him on for this trip, I didn't mind the second-up run of 11. YAPHET. After jumping well, he got shuffled back early in that brutally run Peter Young and while he didn't have a Gold Trip turn-of-foot at 1800m, he was getting past some key rivals here, who are all shorter in the market.

4. Marocchino makes his first venture outside WA and does so in career best form, with a hat-trick on Feb 25. He'd never won first-up prior to that, while the Dec 17 win over Steinhem ties in a little with this event.

Straight to 2000m first-up is interesting placement with 8. Regal Power, who also gets the blinkers back on. Have to respect his class in this field.

7. Right You Are goes up 3kg after beating unfit stayers. Much more depth here and happy to oppose.

Yaphet - $29.00Flemington Race Sixbet now
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Stay in Control. Gamble Responsibly. Think! About your choices. Call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Race 7 - 4:20PM Yulong Stud Newmarket Handicap Tips (1200m)


Selections: 16,3,7,1.

The 1000m was ultimately a little slick for 16. BUENOS NOCHES first-up in the Black Caviar Lightning, where he was cuddled up and allowed to finish off late. Meets I Wish I Win 3kg better off from that, while a strong tick-over trial win at Warwick Farm will bring him on perfectly for the Newmarket. Appeals on an each-way basis.

3. I Wish I Win will be the best horse to come from this, although given he hasn't won at Group 1 level, the handicapper has treated him harshly. Might just be too classy anyway and you don't want to lose on him.

The return of 7. September Run was fine, where she loomed ominously inside of Nature Strip and then fitness gave out in the last 50m. She can improve.

1. Private Eye is a jet and while a winning chance, with a bit against him, you should get a better price late.


Race 8 - 5:00PM Furphy Shaftesbury Avenue Handicap Tips (1400m)


Selections: 4,15,9,8.

Although 4. AYRTON wasn't able to progress last year, he's still very lightly raced and while there's better races in him, it's a perfect kick-off for some confidence. 1400m on firm ground is his ideal set-up and his sole first-up loss was a one length second to I Wish I Win. Last jump-out was super and if right, he should put this lot away.

Now down in the weights, 15. Worsfold could be very dangerous here and keeping him on the fresh side looks the key. Well up in grade, but has always threatened to get to this level and he'll look to wind up late.

In the Elms Handicap, 9. Not An Option made ground from last and was 1000m to 1400m second-up there. He can settle closer from gate one.

8. Visinari is a rung or so below where many they thought he'd end up, albeit this Group 3 is within reach.

Ayrton - $3.50Flemington Race Eightbet now
New customers only. 18+ T&Cs and wagering requirements apply.

Race 9 - 5:40PM Cirka Plate Tips (1400m)


Selections: 11,6,2,12.

Strange race, with lightly tried runners trying to progress and others more exposed, who are likely finding their level. Straight to 1400m fresh, there's clear intent with 11. IS IT ME, who has Kah, barrier one and the 54kg minimum. Unbeaten from two in his first prep and visually impressive, but there's no guide with that form.

11. Jenny Jerome looked an Oaks contender last spring after a midfield finish in the Thousand Guineas, but was then spelled after an end of prep Wakeful run. She dropped back to a BM64 second-up and got a kill.

After getting home okay in the Zeditave first-up, 2. Meridius is better placed here in something a little easier and the 1400m should suit now.

12. Zoupurring was brave on debut, when wide behind a handy Helix and she then atoned at Sandown.

Flemington FAQs

What time is the first race at Flemington?

The first race at Flemington jumps at 12.35pm AEST.

Who is the best bet at Flemington?

We are siding with Ayrton as the best bet at Flemington.

How can I live stream the Flemington races?

Visit our live streaming hub to see how you can live stream the Flemington races.

     

Verdict

The classy Ayrton finds a very winnable assignment fresh, while Buenos Noches (Race 7) and Eternal Flame (Race 3) are both each-way chances.

Best Bet: Ayrton To Win @5/2 at Ladbrokes Australia - 6 Units
Value Bet: Eternal Flame Each Way @26/1 at Ladbrokes Australia - 1 Unit
Feature Bet: Buenos Noches Each Way @12/1 at Boombet - 3 Units
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Eternal Flame
Each Way
@26/1 - 1 Unit
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Buenos Noches
Each Way
@12/1 - 3 Units
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Betting Slip | 11 Mar 2023

Flemington - March 11