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Flemington Betting Tips for March 4, 2023 - Race-By-Race preview for Australian Guineas day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 02 Mar 2023
Alex Marsh 02 Mar 2023
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  • Get our tips and best bets for the Flemington Races
  • They host a strong nine race program this Saturday
  • The track is currently a Good 4 and the rail is out 2 metres
  • Our race-by-race preview for March 4 is included below
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Flemington Tips for 04.03.2023
The Group 1 Australian Guineas headlines Saturday's Flemington card. (Getty)
 

Flemington hosts a nine race program on March 4 and our free betting tips and best bets are available.
  • Flemington Tips March 4
  • Race 1 - 12:35PM Furphy Trophy Tips (1000m)
  • Race 2 - 1:10PM Lexus Melbourne Cup Tour Tenders Open Tips (2500m)
  • Race 3 - 1:45PM Carm Trophy Tips (1000m)
  • Race 4 - 2:20PM VRC Life Member John Ford Sprint Tips (1000m)
  • Race 5 - 3:00PM The Schweppes Plate Tips (1600m)
  • Race 6 - 3:40PM Inglis Sprint Tips (1200m)
  • Race 7 - 4:20PM Australian Guineas Tips (1600m)
  • Race 8 - 5:00PM TAB Blamey Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 9 - 5:40PM Resimax Group Plate Tips (1200m)
  • Flemington FAQs

Our Flemington best bets are provided by expert form analysts and tipsters, and a preview of Saturday's racing is below.


Flemington Tips March 4


Race 1 - 12:35PM Furphy Trophy Tips (1000m)


Selections: 4,10,2,7.

4. MASSIRA is a colt with tactical speed and as a juvenile that's been prepared from Godolphin's Flemington base, that's always an advantage. He quickened easily in his last jump-out on Feb 17 and under a hold, recorded a decent time for that 800m heat. It's a very tough opener, so the betting might tell the story.

10. Illative arrives off four jump-out wins and improved with each outing, with the latest on Feb 20 her best workout to date and a wide alley suits this big filly down the straight. Bred to get further, though.

2. Awesome Lineup showed nice progression from his first to his second workout, which is a big tick for a 2yo. He's another that's bred to get further.

7. Princess Duhallow tired late frsh, although it was a huge improvement on the debut. Back to 1000m suits.


Race 2 - 1:10PM Lexus Melbourne Cup Tour Tenders Open Tips (2500m)


Selections: 5,4,3,1.

5. TIMOUR was well backed on Aus debut, despite 1600m proving too short and after a bad second-up run, this Chris Waller import bounced back on Feb 18, with the fastest closing splits of that 2000m affair. Gets into a thin race on the 54kg minimum here and getting out to 2500m looks ideal now. Can he settle closer from gate two?

4. So Unusual has a tidy record and is moving through the lower staying grades easily, arriving off a winning hat-trick and he drops 4kg. Highland Jack franked the Sandown form with a Group 3 victory last Sat.

3. Youth Spirit is one-paced, but honest and going to 2500m third-up is a tick after whacking away at Rosehill last start. He'll land on the speed.

1. Midnight Blue was a pass mark fresh and interestingly is on the short back-up second-up, This is easier.

Timour - $3.75Flemington Race Twobet now
18+ only. Ts and Cs apply.

Race 3 - 1:45PM Carm Trophy Tips (1000m)


Selections: 2,3,6,5.

2. KALLOS returns as a gelding after a spring prep which fell away badly, but there was promise on display early and that includes a two length win up the Flemington straight as a 3yo. All of his winning form to date has been in the 1000m-1100m range and the lead-up trial win at Hawkesbury indicates that he's ready to fire first-up.

3. On The Lead has grown another leg in Melbourne, recording an eye-catching Sandown victory before a second at listed level to the very talented Star Patrol. He gets back, so barrier one isn't exactly ideal.

6. Mamaragan has turned it around for the new yard, with Nick Ryan unlucky not get back-to-back wins with this gelding on Feb 17. He's flying.

5. Easy Single is very honest and did win first-up over this track/trip last autumn before going to Sydney.

Kallos - $3.60Flemington Race Threebet now
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Race 4 - 2:20PM VRC Life Member John Ford Sprint Tips (1000m)


Selections: 4,8,5,3.

4. WILD BELLE is a WA speedster on Melb debut, having won three of her last four in Perth and that included a dominant return triumph on Feb 5, where she did run slick time. Chris Parnham has travelled over for the ride and interestingly, Luke Fernie has three gallopers in over the program. This is clearly his best winning chance.

8. Waverider Buoy was monster odds in the Kevin Hayes, yet should've finished closer in that Group 3 and back to 1000m is no knock, as this Waller filly doesn't run 1200m. She'll get galloping room this time around.

5. Winnertakesitall is seemingly a short course specialist and has less convictions than a lot of these. Moved well in a recent jump-out here.

3. Ojai has performed well on numerous times vs stronger company, but she does find it very hard to win.


Race 5 - 3:00PM The Schweppes Plate Tips (1600m)


Selections: 9,1,7,8.

9. SPARKLE had trialled every bit as well as Tuvalu and Keats ahead of her Aus debut. While she did plenty of work, this Japanese mare was still plain and the tongue tie going on helps explain that (choked down). Has worked well in a subsequent jump-out and a big positive at start two is Blake Shinn sticking from that last run.

1. Carlisle is over the odds ($16.00 @ bet365), a gelding that covered ground in a strong fresh win and second-up, that did leave him a little flat on Feb 18, where he peaked on a chasing effort. Gets relief with Jett Stanley's 3kg claim.

7. Ima Shelby has seemingly been up forever, but this Hayes galloper continues to hold his form and this is no stronger than his last assignment.

8. Kettle Hill was enormous on Aus debut, but has been disappointing since. He's been freshened right up.

Sparkle - $7.00Flemington Race Fivebet now
New customers only. 18+ T&Cs and wagering requirements apply.

Race 6 - 3:40PM Inglis Sprint Tips (1200m)


Selections: 7,15,19,3.

7. INSURRECTION was gelded ahead of his summer return and the ultimate gear change worked immediately, with the three-year-old bolting in as a heavily backed fav at the Sydney midweeks. Up in grade second-up, he wasn't as sharp, but managed to fight back to grab second. That performance suggests he's looking for 1200m.

15. Opal Ridge is another NSW contender, with this 750k restricted sprint clearly a target first-up. She quickly went through the grades last year and handles all conditions in the process. The lead-up trial was strong.

19. Running By didn't handle a Heavy 8 at start two, yet still managed fourth in that listed attempt and was then spelled. She has plenty of scope.

3. Sebonack backs-up from Sandown, where he got home okay and wasn't far off Remarque prior to that.

Insurrection - $12.00Flemington Race Sixbet now
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Stay in Control. Gamble Responsibly. Think! About your choices. Call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Race 7 - 4:20PM Australian Guineas Tips (1600m)


Selections: 14,15,8,1.

While 14. ATTRITION was unlucky not win the CS Hayes lead-up, that performance showed that he well and truly belongs at this level. I loved the versatility in his back-to-back Jan wins, as he showed a turn-of-foot off a slower tempo fresh and then absorbed a stronger speed at Geelong. Is a serious talent and 1600m is ideal now.

15. Legarto is the X-factor, an NZ filly that's been outstanding, winning her first five in brilliant fashion. Her first four victories were in the anti-clockwise direction, with Legarto appearing to travel kinder on her Melb leg.

8. Amenable was a run short first-up in the Autumn Stakes, yet produced the run of that and Pericles franked the form with a huge win at Sandown last Sat.

1. Jacquinot is clearly the class runner, but could be vulnerable at a mile. The $3.20-$3.50 earlier in the week was the mark (now $2.30).


Race 8 - 5:00PM TAB Blamey Stakes Tips (1600m)


Selections: 7,4,13,8.

7. UNCLE BRYN was never in winning calculations fresh, although should've finished closer, with the Busuttin & Young import strung up at stages in the run home and wasn't able to blend in. He's better suited back to 56kg under Set Weights and Penalties, while 1600m is his pet trip, especially when he gets more of a rolling tempo.

4. Gentleman Roy is no superstar, but certainly a deserved fav coming back from the CF Orr, which he lost on protest. This gelding is one of the main speed influences in this field and 1600m third-up is a nice setup.

13. Hezashocka seemingly came from nowhere late last spring, with a half-length Mackinnon Stakes defeat before a spell. His lead-up work has been excellent.

8. Bear Story is a two-time stakes winner on Aus debut here and his jump-outs have been strong. Big watch.


Race 9 - 5:40PM Resimax Group Plate Tips (1200m)


Selections: 1,4,6,7.

1. PINSTRIPED should've won an Australian Guineas on this program 12 months ago and while he didn't progress over spring, the son of Street Boss remained competitive in stronger company. Before his CS Hayes win, he defeated out-and-out sprinters over 1200m at The Valley first-up and is sharp enough to take this out.

4. It'sourtime has placed four times at stakes level, including runner-up finishes up the straight behind Halvorsen and Extreme Warrior, which reads well here. Has great fresh stats and this is winnable.

6. Kentucky Casanova raced too fresh in a return flop here, but responded with back-to-back victories and is right down in the weights after the claim.

7. D'Jumbuck loves the Flemington straight six, although the fav is against some much stronger chasers here.

Flemington FAQs

What time is the first race at Flemington?

The first race at Flemington jumps at 12.35pm AEST.

Who is the best bet at Flemington?

We are siding with Timour as the best bet at Flemington.

How can I live stream the Flemington races?

Visit our live streaming hub to see how you can live stream the Flemington races.

    

Verdict

Timour (Race 2) is a leading hope on a competitive card, while Pinstriped (Race 9) is a strong each-way chance fresh.

Attrition (Race 7) is decent odds in the Australian Guineas.

Best Bet: Timour To Win @11/4 at betfair - 5 Units
Value Bet: Pinstriped Each Way @7/1 at Justbet - 4 Units
Feature Bet: Attrition Each Way @8/1 at Bet Right - 1 Unit
Timour
To Win
@11/4 - 5 Units
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Bet at betfair
Pinstriped
Each Way
@7/1 - 4 Units
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Bet at Justbet
Attrition
Each Way
@8/1 - 1 Unit
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Referral Code: BETS

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Betting Slip | 04 Mar 2023

Flemington - March 4