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Caulfield Betting Tips, Best Bets & Odds for October 16

  • 10 races feature on Saturday's Caulfield Cup meeting
  • This feature Melbourne card starts at 12.15pm
  • The track is currently a Soft 5, although there's a chance of downgrades
  • Justin Darcy provides his race-by-race preview for October 16
Caulfield Betting Tips
Buffalo River will back-up after a second placing last Saturday. (Getty)
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Justin Darcy 15 Oct 2021
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Caulfield hosts a 10 race program on October 16 and our free betting tips and best bets are available.
  • Caulfield Tips for October 16
  • Race 1 - 12.15pm Magic Millions Grand Handicap Tips
  • Race 2 - 12.50pm Tile Importer Trophy Tips
  • Race 3 - 1.25pm Polytrack Gothic Stakes Tips
  • Race 4 - 2.00pm Schweppes Ethereal Stakes Tips 
  • Race 5 - 2.35pm Neds Classic Tips
  • Race 6 - 3.10pm Neds Moonga Stakes Tips
  • Race 7 - 3.45pm Lexus Tristarc Stakes Tips
  • Race 8 - 4.30pm Carlton Draught Alinghi Stakes Tips
  • Race 9 - 5.15pm Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup Tips
  • Race 10 - 5.50pm McCafe Caulfield Sprint Tips
  • Caulfield FAQs

Our Caulfield best bets are provided by expert form analysts and tipsters, and a preview of Saturday's racing is below.

READ: Get $2.30 for Zoutori & Colette to both Place


Caulfield Tips for October 16


Race 1 - 12.15pm Magic Millions Grand Handicap Tips


Selections: 10,5,4,1.

10. EAGLES CRAG is a really nice horse moving forward into the back-end of the spring where he is going to be able to go through his grades before reaching stakes level. Was a strong winner at Benalla last start and although he is rising in grade, has never looked anything short of city class across his career.

5. Seiners Express will handle these expected wet conditions and has been in super form of late, not finishing too far from Mr Brightside last start who has subsequently won again.

4. Saracen Knight could be the surprise packet now in the new stable of Danny O'Brien and with a wet track tick next to his name. He has shown a degree of excitement across his career.

1. Ballet Master will enjoy the wet conditions and getting back to Caulfield where he has run his best races. He is a dual acceptor with a race at Moe also in mind.

Race 2 - 12.50pm Tile Importer Trophy Tips


Selections: 4,2,1,6.

4. LADY ADELAIDE was a really strong winner last start at Sale where she was just kept wide and out of trouble, yet proved too strong to the line in what was a great effort on the clock as well. I like her drawn out where although she is going to get back, this filly can sustain a long runs.

2. Morioka probably should not be a maiden, but has been racing in some strong races of late, but prepared to forgive the last two efforts where the track pattern did not suit. Much better placed here.

1. Vianello has been racing in city grade, but average form race so I am more than happy to risk her at the price.

6. No Crying has been well backed at her past two starts, but could not get the job done, although I do like the form through Nicolite who has form around stakes place getter New York Baby.

Race 3 - 1.25pm Polytrack Gothic Stakes Tips


Selections: 8,3,4,1.

8. MISTER ME represents a heap of value  after winning like a good horse at Mornington, beating a Freedman-trained galloper in Bankroll who looks a nice horse. That win was nearly five lengths above the class average, so there was no fluke in what he did. Important to note as well, he won a trial to kick off the prep in Heavy 10 conditions, so the wet track is no worry.

3. Extreme Flight won well last start at Sandown, seemingly taking a liking to the spacious track. Caulfield is the new test, but did win in the wet at Moe to break the maiden.

4. Sandy Prince ran well in the Stutt Stakes last start but when racing against some quality horses he tends to find one or two better. This race is more suitable, as is the step back to 1400m.

1. Daily Bugle is probably suited back to 1400m, but he is a good enough horse to be competitive.

Race 4 - 2.00pm Schweppes Ethereal Stakes Tips 


Selections: 10,3,4,6.

10. KAPALUA SUNSET looks one of the better bets of the day after an astonishing maiden win at Kyneton where she ran near six lengths above standard time. She draws ideally in gate five and importantly, is away from the Thousand Guineas form which I am keen to avoid.  The daughter of Tavistock looks a proper stayer so 2000m is no issue, en route to a potenmtial Oaks tilt.

3. Stalking comes through the Manifold where she was fourth to Elusive Express and Yearning, the subsequent quinella in the Thousand Guineas which is the top tier of that form. I like her from an Oaks point of view as she looks a likely stayer, but not sure how she will match up against the favourite.

4. Adele Amour has Barb Raider form which is good enough for this, especially as that filly ran so well in the Thousand Guineas in a race that I do not believe was exactly suitable for her. She is bred to run in the wet being by Sebring.

6. Glint Of Hope ran well last start in the Elusive Express race, but now the question is whether she handles the wet and I have my concerns there.

Race 5 - 2.35pm Neds Classic Tips


Selections: 2,6,1,13.

2. GUNDEC will have a speedmap advantage over the favourite which I am hoping proves crucial come the end of this race. He controlled the race at Flemington last start running more than three lengths above the class average off a slow tempo, showing he has a turn-of-foot. Confident he gets through the wet and having beaten home Kapalua Sunset two starts back reads very well.

6. Gunstock will need a touch of luck and maybe a more positive ride from gate two, but he has not exactly shown blistering early pace to date. It was a very high rating race last start and it is more a question of whether he will be better suited at Flemington where he has more time to wind up?

1. Micro did not have the best of luck at Moonee Valley last start but I am happy to forgive that and count him as a chance here up in trip.

13. El Patroness beat Gunstock last start, but now up in trip, I'm expecting the tables to turn.

Race 6 - 3.10pm Neds Moonga Stakes Tips


Selections: 8,4,5,10.

8. BUFFALO RIVER is a confusing horse, but on the week back-up and on to a wet track, expecting him to bounce back, and if not he is in the sack file for life. The six-year-old is yet to win on a good track, but is unbeaten on heavy tracks and is yet to miss a place on soft tracks which includes three wins, so more rain the better.

4. Justacanta is another wet tracker, but I do have questions over how good his form is. Other are better ability wise, but a wet deck will bring him into the equation.

5. Gaulois is another who needs to raise the bar, but has not missed the top two in six starts on a heavy deck. Can't see him winning if the rain does not arrive though.

10. King Magnus has been in a ripping vein of form and a little freshen up will have him coiled up and ready to go here, although he is racing fit and in-form horses.

Race 7 - 3.45pm Lexus Tristarc Stakes Tips


Selections: 2,3,4,1.

This is looking a rather simple race the more I look at it. 2. COLETTE should just win if the track is a Soft 7 or worse given her wet track credentials and the quality of horse we know she is in these conditions. The question is going to be how as she come back after her little hoof issues, but I am sure Cummings will not run her unless she is right and has galloped well this week.

If the track is rated a Soft 6 or better, I will be leaning towards 3. Nimalee who brings down the Sydney form and is super effective on both good and soft ground. She just missed Vangelic (leaders track) at her latest run and is a second-up winner.

4. Chaillot stood out in early markets, but going through her form, I have questions over the quality of her last win seeing as it has not rated overly high. It was magic to the eye, but needs to lift again.

1. Kahma Lass was too good for Buffalo River last week, and now looks suited up in grade but in fillies and mares grade.

Race 8 - 4.30pm Carlton Draught Alinghi Stakes Tips


Selections: 8,10,2,12.

8. NEVER TALK brings down some nice form lines off good tracks which are not suitable for her, so striking what we expect to be a track with a lot of give in it will be right up her alley. She was not far from Count De Rupee last start, who should have won the Silver Eagle last week and importantly, draws off the fence, so she will have room to move down the outside.

10. Rubisaki may bot find her peak again, but she is a little like Mystic Journey, where she should win if anywhere near her top. She loves wet ground, but it is whether she can find something like her best form after an up and down prep last time in?

2. Varda is another who swims and is overall a very consistent mare. She is a two-time second-up winner.

12. Lashes could run well at big odds first-up where she has been in the money five out of six times. She loves the wet and has been trialling super, but is a dual acceptor in Queensland as well.

Race 9 - 5.15pm Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup Tips


Selections: 2,15,4,3.

These tips are all based on an expected wet track, but I just simply cannot go past 2. INCENTIVISE whether it is rain, hail or shine. I have been a big knocker of him at his last two starts as to whether he is as good as the market gives him respect for and I was well and truly proven wrong last start in the Turnbull Stakes where he produced a performance that very few can do.

15. Young Werther was the one who tested him last start by looking the winner, but being repelled by the better horse. Up in trip is really suitable along with a wet track where he has run some of his better figures on. Seems a little like stable mate Vow And Declare in the year where he won the Melbourne Cup.

4. The Chosen One loves the slop and will be doing a rain dance on Friday night. Was super last week on a firm deck behind Delphi who had a big break on him around the bend. He ran third in this race last year to Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck which is more than good enough.

3. Explosive Jack is the one who was looking for more ground in the Turnbull last start, and will be better suited on soft ground. Gate one might be the issue.

Race 10 - 5.50pm McCafe Caulfield Sprint Tips


Selections: 3,10,9,11.

Going with the proven sprinter of the field in 3. MALKOVICH who has the Caulfield box ticked when winning here in the winter and placing second in the Monash Stakes to end the prep. His win on soft ground over this trip in June was more than five lengths above the standard time, and he has been trialling up super for his return so happy to end the day with him.

10. Curran poses as a danger with a remarkably consistent career record and another win to kick off his prep. The wet ground is his test but I can't knock the consistency.

9. Oxley Road is the brother to Exceedance who loved the mud, but this colt seems to be handy on both firm and soft tracks. He will be ready to go third-up.

11. Enthaar will make her anticipated return to the track, but wet ground has me cautious around backing her.

Caulfield FAQs

What time is the first race at Caulfield?

The first race at Caulfield jumps at 12.15pm.

Who is the best bet at Caulfield?

We are siding with Kapalua Sunset as the best bet at Caulfield.

How can I live stream the Caulfield races?

Visit our live streaming hub to see how you can live stream the Caulfield races.

AU

Verdict

Kapalua Sunset and Buffalo River will run as our best bets of the day.

Mister Me will run as our value bet.

Best Bet: Kapalua Sunset To Win $2.25 at Neds - 11 Units
Next Best Bet: Buffalo River To Win $3.30 at BlueBet - 8 Units
Value Bet: Mister Me Each-Way $34.00 at Topsport - 1 Unit

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