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Ascot Betting Tips for November 30, 2024 - Race-By-Race preview for Winterbottom Stakes day
- The Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes headlines Saturday's Ascot program
- Tips for each Ascot race on November 30; key picks include Wind And The Lion and Western Empire
- Bet highlights: Jokers Grin, Wind And The Lion for wins, Mystical Man as a value bet
Expired
Nine race feature on Saturday's Winterbottom Stakes meeting from Ascot. (Getty)
The Winterbottom Stakes headlines the second Group 1 meeting of the Perth Summer Carnival and there's a decent support program around the sprint feature.
- Ascot Tips November 30
- Race 1 - 12:34PM Racing Towards Better Handicap Tips (1800m)
- Race 2 - 1:09PM Schweppes Handicap Tips (1800m)
- Race 3 - 1:49PM Quayclean Handicap Tips (1200m)
- Race 4 - 2:28PM Tabtouch Championship Road To Ascot Tips (1200m)
- Race 5 - 3:08PM Tabtouch Have You Got The Touch Handicap Tips (1200m)
- Race 6 - 3:43PM Tabtouch - Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic Tips (1400m)
- Race 7 - 4:17PM Ascend Trophies - Jungle Dawn Classic Tips (1400m)
- Race 8 - 4:52PM MCA Polytrack-Winterbottom Stakes Tips (1200m)
- Race 9 - 5:37PM Swan Draught Handicap Tips (1400m)
Our race-by-race preview for Saturday is included below.
Ascot Tips November 30
Race 1 - 12:34PM Racing Towards Better Handicap Tips (1800m)
Best: 11. War Matters. He's improved as this campaign has worn on, which includes a breakthrough victory over more seasoned rivals two starts back before a fourth-place finish in the key form race on November 16.
War Matters was back/held-up at key stages of that event and as a result, the gelding wasn't able to build momentum when he needed to and 1800m is worth a try off that run.
He's in a similar race this time around and with even luck in transit from barrier four under Brad partner, he's among the leading chances in an open race.
Value: 7. Mystical Man. The seven-year-old has no winning first or second-up form to his name, so there's improvement to come third-up over a more suitable trip and he brings the Border Force form from his last appearance.
Despite starting as 40/1 chance in that November 5 event, there's no doubting that Mystical Man should've finished much closer there as he was in traffic before only getting clear when the race was over.
Now fitter and with a low draw over this longer trip, there's no reason they can't be more positive this time around and off that luckless last start showing, he's over the odds here.
Race 2 - 1:09PM Schweppes Handicap Tips (1800m)
Best: 6. Royal Toronado. He's getting very deep into the prep now, which is the main query, however, the obvious form runner here is Royal Toronado, who is back to 1800m out of a fast run 2100m last week.
A winner over this track/trip two starts back, the four-year-old almost saluted from an impossible position last week and he drops 1.5kg off that big chasing effort.
While it's technically a rise in class, this race doesn't appear to be much stronger and his November 2 Triumph was recorded on a shorter turnaround.
Value: 10. Sowar. This honest veteran finds his most suitable assignment of the campaign so far and he has a good fitness based with three runs under his belt.
Sowar was set a task in the last of those when stepping up to the mile on November 16 and he was good at a big price before that when contesting a 1400m 66+.
He's been in the top four via his last three tries over the Ascot 1800m, which includes a victory back in April with 55kg on his back and carries that same impost here.
Race 3 - 1:49PM Quayclean Handicap Tips (1200m)
Best: 5. Comic Hero. Simon Miller backs up Comic Hero following an even second-up performance last Saturday and the gelding is down in grade for this attempt.
The five-year-old recorded the second fastest last 200m of the 66+ on November 23, while he rattled off the fastest closing splits via his return affair on November 9.
He was a stylish third-up winner over this track/trip last campaign and he got the better of Madame Magic in the process, who was stakes placed later in that prep.
Value: 6. Diablo Lad. Diablo Lad has been freshened-up following a poor second-up run at Northern and an elevated heart rate was detected after that event.
He was effectively giving a barrier trial when resuming over this track/trip prior to that last start flop, where he was out the back from a wide gate and ridden colder than usual.
His only two failures prior to this campaign were over winter on wet tracks and his last victory was recorded over the Ascot 1200m when third-up back in March..
Race 4 - 2:28PM Tabtouch Championship Road To Ascot Tips (1200m)
Best: 7. Invincible Power. The ex-Victorian has been ticking over well, with Invincible Power just peaking late via his WA debut before taking out the Albany qualifying heat on November 16.
He was well backed in that second-up tilt, where the gelding overcame a checkered path from off the speed and he's one of the few lightly raced horses in this field.
There was a big market push for him last start and from a middle draw for this 100k Regional Championships feature, he can stalk the speed from midfield before launching late.
Value: 10. Secret Attire. She did put in a shocker as a well beaten fav in the Kalgoorlie qualifier and the five-year-old was too bad to be true in that last start performance.
With Eevalina and Science Degree in the market for this final, we have to respect that last starting price, especially given how well she was going for Peter Fernie prior to that.
The daughter of Vancouver wasn't out of the money in her first seven appearances for the new stable and she started under $5 in all of those outings.
Race 5 - 3:08PM Tabtouch Have You Got The Touch Handicap Tips (1200m)
Best: 6. Jokers Grin. He's putting together a very tidy resume, with five wins from just the six starts and with progression over the next 12 months, Jokers Grin could be a Winterbottom contender next year.
The query is that he steps up to 1200m after recording five victories over 1000m, however, there were excuses in his debut loss over this trip, where he was wide and over-raced.
While this is his toughest assignment to date, the four-year-old is clearly the progressive horse in this field and with 4.5kg less from his last run, the winning streak is predicted to continue.
Value: 10. Cool Memory. He'll improve from this and likely furnish deeper into the prep over longer trips, although Cool Memory was effective over sprint distances early.
A genuine stakes class horse who proved those credentials in winter before a spell, the Darren McAuliffe-trained galloper looks one of the few in this field with upside.
Cool Memory is down on the 54kg minimum for Saturday's first-up attempt and Joseph Azzopardi takes the fresh engagement (he's been a board for two of his three wins).
Race 6 - 3:43PM Tabtouch - Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic Tips (1400m)
Best: 1. Wind And The Lion. On breeding, 1400m looks a stretch for this talented three-year-old, however, he gives every indication that he'll run the trip and there's Improvement to come third-up.
Wind And The Lion should be unbeaten, with a wide draw over 1000m proving costly on return after a stylish debut win in winter, while he bounced back to the winners stall last start via the main lead-up.
From barrier two, he should get every chance under Chris Parnham and in a three-year-old line-up that has appears to have a decent tail, he's clearly the one to beat here.
Value: 7. Earthstorm. Although she's still a maiden, Earthstorm has placed three times at stakes level and she stays at 1400m after a fair third-up effort on November 5.
She settled a long way back in that last tilt before attempting a wide run, while it's worth noting that she was specked at a price ahead of that Burgess Queen assignment.
From a middle draw, the should be more positive this time around and with weight off some key rivals under the set weights and penalties conditions, she could be dangerous.
Race 7 - 4:17PM Ascend Trophies - Jungle Dawn Classic Tips (1400m)
Best: 1. Baby Paris. She proved herself at 1400m with an all-the-way win over last year's Perth Carnival and Baby Paris gave nothing else a chance when second-up a fortnight ago.
Aside from recording a comfortable margin, there was more merit to the win given the pattern of that program, with that November 16 card favouring swoopers in the middle and wider lanes.
She'll land straight on the speed again for Troy Turner and with the daughter of Playing God well placed against her own sex again, she's a deserving in the Jungle Dawn Classic.
Value: 4. Amber Glide. Now fourth-up and off a good platform, Amber Glide is peaking for a target assignment on Saturday, where the grey gets the services of William Pike.
She's coming out of the right form race for this mares event, with a third-of-ten finish in the RJ Peters and she has been competitive against a similar group to this over her last three preps.
From gate nine and with most of the early speed influences drawn to her inside, expect a typical cold ride from 'The Wizard' and if the track pattern allows, she'll be there at the business end.
Race 8 - 4:52PM MCA Polytrack-Winterbottom Stakes Tips (1200m)
Best: 2. Western Empire. He's an interesting runner, with the seven-year-old focusing on shorter distances this campaign and while he was a beaten fav, the gelding was still good on return in the Colonel Reeves Stakes
The 2021 Railway Stakes winner was a stylish second-up winner last prep and the Williams stable have focused on the Winterbottom Stakes and the Gold Rush as the target races this time in.
Western Empire has drawn ideally in barrier four, as he can stay off the rails given he has as much speed as those to his inside, while Overpass and Bravo Centurion will be working early from wide gates.
It's been a decent turnaround since rejoining the Williams yard, as the gelding was off the boil after showing so much promise early and he's got the class despite 1200m being a little on the short side.
Next Best: 5. Maharba. Interstate horses have won 11 of the last 16 running's of the Winterbottom Stakes and Maharba is one of just three visitors who has accepted for the 2024 edition of the Perth sprint feature.
Grahame Begg is as astute as they come and while Group 1 action has ended for the year in the eastern states, there were other options for this four-year-old (Meteorite and Pakenham slot race).
Maharba was against the track pattern when outperforming a 50/1 quote on return at Caulfield and he bounced off that to salute on Derby Day (not in the best ground there either).
Regular rider Jordan Childs travels west for this key engagement and from barrier six aboard a galloper who is tactically versatile, the pair can settle forward of midfield with cover.
Value: 12. Rockin' Rupert. The early Winterbottom Stakes market has the Colonel Reeves Stakes as the main local form reference and with that in mind, the bolters odds for Rockin' Rupert is a little surpising.
Aside from Western Empire, the six-year-old has gone as well any contender coming from that 1100m lead-up race, where he only got warm late after being held-up at key stages.
Rockin' Rupert contested that November 16 Group 3 first-up off only one trial and with his last four victories all being recorded over six furlongs, he's suited up in distance on Saturday.
The gelding has been in career best form this year, with three wins from five starts last campaign and while he drifted back early via the recent return tilt, he's capable of settling closer.
Race 9 - 5:37PM Swan Draught Handicap Tips (1400m)
Best: 5. Wubin Gold. Wubin Gold looked a good thing on last week's Railway Stakes card, but unfortunately for partners in the last on that program, she got back and found trouble at key stages.
This isn't any harder, with Colin Webster backing the four-year-old up off a luckless effort and the given the second-up win came with clear room from off the speed, drawing out here isn't a huge negative.
She won over this trip last campaign before having excuses as a beaten odds-on fav and for a galloper who has the talent to measure up in better races, she's worth another chance here.
Value: 1. Falcon Trader. He has a reasonable record, with seven wins and six placings from 22 starts and Falcon Trader arrives here off a nice return over 1200m at Geraldton.
Six furlongs might just be a touch sharp for the five-year-old these days, with his last four victories all having come in the 1400m-1600m range, so he's suited up in distance.
The Brett Pope-trained galloper has the tactical speed to overcome a wide draw and with decent form in higher grade last prep, Falcon Trader can give a sight at decent odds.
Verdict
Our best & value bets for Saturday's Winterbottom Stakes card are:
Jokers Grin
To Win
$1.95 - 3 Units
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Wind And The Lion
To Win
$3.20 - 3 Units
Betting Exchange
Referral Code BETSAU
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Wubin Gold
To Win
$4.80 - 3 Units
Racing Promos & Social Betting
bet with mates
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Mystical Man
Each Way
$41.00 - 1 Unit
Same Race Multi & Instant Deposit
Referral Code: BETS
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