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Ascot Betting Tips for December 9, 2023 - Race-By-Race preview for Northerly Stakes day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 07 Dec 2023
Alex Marsh 07 Dec 2023
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  • Get our tips and best bets for the Ascot Races in Perth
  • The Group 1 Northerly Stakes headlines Saturday's WA card
  • The track is currently in the Good 4 range
  • Our race-by-race preview for December 9 is included below
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ascot tips
Nine races will be run on Saturday's Northerly Stakes card from Ascot. (Getty)
 

Ascot host a nine-race program on December 9 and our free betting tips along with our preview are available below.
  • Ascot Tips December 9
  • Race 1 - 12:05PM Magic Millions Plate Tips (1000m)
  • Race 2 - 12:45PM Amelia Park Plate Tips (1000m)
  • Race 3 - 1:25PM Scenic Shot Handicap Tips (2200m)
  • Race 4 - 2:05PM Tabtouch - G.A. Towton Cup Tips (2200m)
  • Race 5 - 2:44PM Tabtouch Westspeed Platinum Series Final Tips (1400m)
  • Race 6 - 3:25PM The Drummond Club Handicap Tips (1200m)
  • Race 7 - 4:05PM Furphy Handicap Tips (1000m)
  • Race 8 - 4:45PM Drummond Golf - Northerly Stakes Tips (1800m)
  • Race 9 - 5:22PM Tabtouch Have You Got The Touch Handicap Tips (1600m)

Our Ascot best bets are provided by expert form analysts and tipsters, with free betting tips available right here.


Ascot Tips December 9


Race 1 - 12:05PM Magic Millions Plate Tips (1000m)


Best: 5. Madhi Girl. The bookies were always going to find this Simon Miller-trained debutante off two big trial wins, with even money the quote for the fav and Chris Parnham jumps off Big Shots to ride.

While we haven't seen her pestered or under pressure, Madhi Girl looks a very straightforward juvenile and 1000m straight up is ideal for the speedster.

It'll be interesting to see what the market does late, as she's not the only one who has worked well, although her last trial was in good time for the class.

Value: 3. Street Band. He was mentioned from the trials ahead of his debut in the Crystal Slipper, which was a nice run without threatening and this colt has a lot of natural improvement to come.

Street Band did make some late inroads, however, he was green in the home straight and then over the last 100m of that event, he proceeded to lay out.

He'll likely prosper over more ground in time, although there's an option of settling closer here from a low draw and he does have a touch of quality.

Race 2 - 12:45PM Amelia Park Plate Tips (1000m)


Best: 6. Final Siren. This is a big step up from Albany, but off two terrific wins there to open his account there, a visit to town to town is certainly warranted and he's against his own age for the hat-trick bid.

Multiple winners have come out of both of his races and via his 1000m demolition on debut, he ran faster time than both the Class 1 and the 70+ on that card.

There was some depth to the Class 2 field that he easily disposed of at start two and once again, it was a race that rated well relative to the class.

Value: 5. Snippy Which. With kinder draws, she could've easily added to the debut victory in her first prep, with Snippy Which rounding out the winter campaign with a pair of Saturday metro placings.

Those 1200m outings followed the first start success over this trip and she beat a handy Esprit Garcon there, who has bolted in with both starts this prep.

Her victory coincided with the one time that she drew low, so the filly was able to take up a closer trailing position and has barrier four via Saturday's return.

Race 3 - 1:25PM Scenic Shot Handicap Tips (2200m)


Best: 7. Bernbrae. This mare spiked fourth-up in her first prep when breaking through over a similar distance, while she was Group 3 placed over 2400m in the WA Oaks last time in when ridden on the speed.

Bernbrae was due to return a fortnight ago, however, that scheduled Railway Stakes day opener was abandoned and she then opted to skip last week's 65+.

Along with avoiding a flying Diamond Scene here, a rival whom she's had little luck against of late, the four-year-old now gets the services of William Pike.

Value: 3. Playhouse Patron. Given he'd shown change-up speed over shorter trips, last Saturday's run was quite bizarre, where the son of Patronize was left flatfooted before picking up again very late.

He may just struggled to dash initially with 60kg, with Playhouse Patron looking more like a Grand Annual contender than a horse who saluted over 1200m fresh.

It's worth noting that he was 1600m to 2100m in last Saturday's attempt and along with having a low draw on the back-up, the gelding carries 2kg less.

Race 4 - 2:05PM Tabtouch - G.A. Towton Cup Tips (2200m)


Best: 3. Atlantis Beach. While his first and second-up runs at Group 3 level read well, I'm not sure why Black Fantasy is an odds-on fav going off the AJ Scahill, a race where almost all of these are coming from.

He's got improvement to come, albeit Black Fantasy was still a tad plain in that key lead-up and in a messy affair, Atlantis Beach was one of the unluckier runners.

The son of Toorak Toff found himself shuffled back and buried from gate one, so he was forced to retreat and then come off heels just to get clear late.
Value: 4. Neufbosc. This grey veteran has had a bizarre career, having arrived to Australia off a Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe attempt in 2018 and he did win a Group 3 in France earlier in that calendar year.

After a disappointing stint in the east, Neufbosc has become an honest trier under the care Neville Parnham, with a 2021 Perth Cup win being a clear highlight.

He's ticking over okay for another look at that feature and with fitness on his side, along with a 2100m run now completed, he's an each-way hope here.

Race 5 - 2:44PM Tabtouch Westspeed Platinum Series Final Tips (1400m)


Best: 6. Kings Sicario. The November 24 heat over this track/trip suggests there's very little between Playz With Fire and Kings Sicario, and with each-way odds available for the latter, he makes some appeal.

The Gangemi galloper was only second-up in that recent clash and after a tardy start, he overcame a troubled passage to record the fastest last 600m of the race.

Although he only has one win to his name from 11 starts, Kings Sicario has been competitive in every run and while drawn out, he was likely going back anyway.

Value: 2. Civvy Street. Given he's a lot more exposed than the market fancies, the son of War Chant may not have the upside, but going off that key reference a fortnight ago, the gelding warrants respect.

Civvy Street came from last with a wide run to record the second-fastest last 600m of that November 25 event, which is the main form race for this final.

He'll likely settle off them again under apprentice Luke Campbell, who takes 2kg off and if playing exotics here, he's a must if hunting value in wider options.

Race 6 - 3:25PM The Drummond Club Handicap Tips (1200m)


Best: 8. Exceltrain. In arguably the most open race on the program, there are two I could entertain at each-way quotes and this resuming four-year-old from the Daniel & Ben Pearce stable is one of those selections.

Being Westpeed eligible and with bonuses attached for that in this 'One Metro Win' contest, Exceltrain should be forward enough fresh, arriving here off a trial win.

He showed enough last season to suggest that he's at least Saturday class and with his two biggest flops coming at a mile, perhaps 1200m-1400m is his range.

Value: 1. Falcon Trader. He was unbeaten from four starts in his second prep despite being raw, so the ceiling is still an unknown with Falcon Trader, who wasn't knocked about when third in a November trial.

He beat Duchess Of Gossip in the first of those triumphs and that's terrific reading, as that mare won five of her next six starts and she was stakes places last month.

This big, strong son of My Admiration has built up a nice rapport with Brandon Louis, who takes 1.5kg off and he will push forward from barrier ten.

Race 7 - 4:05PM Furphy Handicap Tips (1000m)


Best: 10. Hanchi. He is taking more seasoned rivals via a 72+, however, Hanchi is bringing some of the hottest three-year-old form lines to this affair and given his versatility, the drop in trip should be fine.

He won two of three starts in his first campaign and did bounce back from a start two failure to roll A Lot Of Men, who is a leading Northerly Stakes contender.

Hanchi started this prep with a second to Oscar's Fortune and was then back/wide when fifth behind Ripcord, and those two both placed in the Winterbottom.
Value: 11. Sky Duke. He was placed for a kill first-up at Bunbury and the four-year-old duly delivered there when beating Rock This Town, who had bolted in the start prior at Northam via the same grade.

Sky Duke broke the class record in the process, so he's clearly going well for legendary trainer Neville Parnham and his stable is in great touch over the carnival.

This is a harder assignment second-up, but he carries 5kg less for his trouble and despite recording two 1200m wins last year, they're keeping him over shorter.

Race 8 - 4:45PM Drummond Golf - Northerly Stakes Tips (1800m)


Best: 1. Zaaki. The Annabel Neasham-trained veteran is aiming for his fifth Group 1 victory in the Northerly Stakes and as the proven class runner at WFA level, he couldn't be better placed to achieve that.

While he hasn't tasted Group 1 success this year, he did prevail over this 1800m journey when taking out the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes in May, while he has been competitive in four runs this campaign.

It's no shock that 1800m is his pet trip (five wins from seven attempts), as a strong 2000m occasionally pulls him up, although those runs have generally been via much deeper events in the east.

Value: 16. A Lot Of Good Men. Admittedly the last four three-year-old winners of the Northerly Stakes have all been fillies, however, it's still a decent profile for the boys, with Playing God and Ihtsahym among the recent victors.

Trained by Trevor Andrews, who prepared Modem to win the 2004 edition of this feature, A Lot Of Good Men was the clear eye-catcher in the WA Guineas, where the colt rattled home for second.

Chris Parnham takes the reins on A Lot Of Good Men for this Group 1 assignment and ideally from a few pairs closer in the run, this colt can make his presence felt with just 52kg on his back.

Race 9 - 5:22PM Tabtouch Have You Got The Touch Handicap Tips (1600m)


Best: 6. Starry Heights. With a winning streak of now five on the trot and for the strong Pike/Willims combination, Starry Heights is already a short fav in the last and he'll start as the clear punters elect here.

This appears to be a shade easier than the 72+ which he saluted in first-up and given the market drift there, Starry Heights was expected to improve off that.

Brooklyn Pier is in career-best form and yet he sailed past him in that 1400m affair, while he now steps to a mile, a trip that he's unbeaten over from four attempts.

Value: 3. Billy Ray. This ex-Bob Peters runner has always been a little hit-or-miss, however, he's very classy on his day and now under the care of Peter Fernie, the gelding has found form for the new yard.

Billy Ray saluted easily third-up despite starting at 40/1 there and following that in the RJ Peters, there's no doubt that he should've finished closer in that Group 3.

The son of Sebring was back and held up in that last appearance, yet wasn't beaten all that far considering and overall, there's much less depth to this race.
                                                

Verdict

Our best & value bets for Saturday's Northerly Stakes meeting are:

Best Bet1: Starry Heights To Win @20/21 at betfair - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Hanchi To Win @23/10 at Neds - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Kings Sicario Each Way @13/2 at Ladbrokes Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Atlantis Beach Each Way @25/1 at Bet Right - 1 Unit
Starry Heights
To Win
@20/21 - 4 Units
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Betting Slip | 09 Dec 2023

Ascot - December 9