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Ascot Betting Tips for December 2, 2023 - Race-By-Race preview for Winterbottom Stakes day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 01 Dec 2023
Alex Marsh 01 Dec 2023
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  • Get our tips and best bets for the Ascot Races in Perth
  • The Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes headlines Saturday's WA card
  • The track should start in the Good 4 range
  • Our race-by-race preview for December 2 is included below
Expired
Ascot Tips for 25.10.2023
Ten races feature on the 2023 Winterbottom Stakes card from Ascot. (Getty)
 

Ascot host a ten-race program on December 2 and our free betting tips along with our preview are available below.
  • Ascot Tips December 2
  • Race 1 - 12:05PM Amelia Park Handicap Tips (2100m)
  • Race 2 - 12:45PM Schweppes Handicap Tips (1500m)
  • Race 3 - 1:25PM Quayclean Handicap Tips (1000m)
  • Race 4 - 2:05PM Drummond Golf Handicap Tips (1800m)
  • Race 5 - 2:45PM Tabtouch Regional Championship Final Tips (1200m)
  • Race 6 - 3:25PM Furphy Handicap Tips (1400m)
  • Race 7 - 4:02PM Tabtouch - Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic Tips (1400m)
  • Race 8 - 4:43PM Ascend Trophies - Jungle Dawn Classic Tips (1400m)
  • Race 9 - 5:20PM Crown Perth - Winterbottom Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 10 - 5:55PM Lexus Of Perth Handicap Tips (1200m)

Our Ascot best bets are provided by expert form analysts and tipsters, with free betting tips available right here.


Ascot Tips December 2


Race 1 - 12:05PM Amelia Park Handicap Tips (2100m)


Best: 1. Playhouse Patron. While he doesn't have the recent winning touch of the fav (Diamond Scene), Playhouse Patron has been going well in stronger races and he's now suited up in distance.

They're both four-year-olds and the one who was competitive at stakes multiple times as a two and three-year-old was this gelding, who has placed twice in Listed grade.

He does go back up in the weights with no claimer engaged this time, but it was hard to miss his last run and on an each-way basis, he appeals in the Ascot opener.

Value: 7. I Love Your Smile. The big knock here is the bar plates going on, especially off a first-up win, although that has been factored into her price and she's one of the more talented runners in this.

I Love Your Smile has always shown ability, having recorded a fifth on debut in last year's WA Sires' and she was unlucky a few times before taking out a maiden in May.

She progressed quickly from the provincials, with a Class 1 victory before placing in a Saturday affair and the winter culminated with three fair runs at stakes level.

Race 2 - 12:45PM Schweppes Handicap Tips (1500m)


Best: 9. Yonga Lass. She's won three of four this prep and isn't any harder than her latest victory, where the mare was back and in traffic early in the straight before getting a late gap under Pike.

Although she'll need some more luck here with a wider draw, Yonga Lass is tactically versatile and after contesting her last two at 1400, the extra 100m may suit now.

Her only loss of the prep came second-up when runner-up to Desennea, a galloper who franked that form next time via a decent 66+ plus affair here at Ascot.

Value: 13. Thorogood. This son of Oratorio is building into his prep nicely and while he's back up in grade to 66+ level, it may well set up for him kinder, as he carries 3kg less here and they now draw low.

Gate two does give them more options early, especially now over this longer trip, with the gelding coming off a third 1200m outing of the prep on November 11.

Thorogood has won over 1400m and 1650m, so there are no queries at the distance and off a soft map, he could be dangerous down in the weights here fourth-up.

Race 3 - 1:25PM Quayclean Handicap Tips (1000m)


Best: 6. Hang Glider. It's not a dissimilar story to that of Yonga Lass in the second, as while he's the best horse and in winning form, this galloper has to overcome a tricky draw in Saturday's assignment.

Hang Glider always had talent as a younger horse, but he couldn't put it all together, but the November 4 victory indicates that the penny may have dropped.

That fresh win was in good time for the class and meeting, and while he was tried over 1200m a few times over winter, keeping him to 1000m for now is a plus.

Value: 8. Here's Dreaming. She got a long way back from a wide draw when resuming over this track/trip on October 14 and while late inroads were made in that first-up effort, it was way too big of an ask.

Here's Dreaming has been kept fresh and jumping from a middle draw in this event is a positive, as there's speed drawn on both sides and she'll camp in behind them.

She could be one run away, with 1200m perhaps her ideal journey going off that most recent showing, although most of her form to date has been over five furlongs.

Race 4 - 2:05PM Drummond Golf Handicap Tips (1800m)


Best: 8. Desennea. This four-year-old is working through the grades well, winning three of four starts in this second prep and now stepping up to a 72+, which allows him to stay down on the 54kg minimum.

Given he got the better of Mountain Ash last start, a rival who is also in the market, Desennea is coming out of a race that should measure up to this stronger event.

He's had three tries at 1600m, so there's a decent platform to tackle this extra furlong and while drawn out here, he'll roll forward early under Michael Poy.

Value: 11. Megami. The daughter of Playing God was stakes-placed behind She's Fit back in March before running fourth behind that same galloper in the WA Oaks, with that Group 3 run over 2400m here.

Given her prior wins were all around the mile range, Megami appears better suited to the middle-distance trips and they have kept her a mile deep into the prep.

She got a much-needed confidence booster when dropping to a provincial Class 5 last start, where decent bets were landed and carries 6kg less from that win.

Race 5 - 2:45PM Tabtouch Regional Championship Final Tips (1200m)


Best: 4. Elite Fighter. These Regional Finals are often competitive and one of the eye-catchers from the Albany heat on November 19 was Elite Fighter, who was back and buried before coming off heels late.

It's worth noting that he has no fresh form on paper, which adds further merit to that return run, while he has won twice second-up, so this looks a clear target.

Another positive is the step-up journey for this 100k feature and from a map that has him blending in from off midfield, he's right in the mix with even luck.

Value: 12. Strarauthoress. Whether he can make the necessary improvements to win this after two competitive showings in 2021 and 2022 is a question mark, however, his lead-up form has been similar.

After what was effectively a trial fresh over 1100m behind a dominant winner, Strarauthoress came from off speed in a muddling affair for second in the Albany heat.

All things equal, Elite Fighter is the better coming from that key lead-up race, however, this gelding can get the early tactical edge from gate three here.

Race 6 - 3:25PM Furphy Handicap Tips (1400m)


Best: 3. San Fabrizio. Although the map appears tricky, San Fabrizio is tactically versatile and in a stronger affair first-up, he arguably should've beaten the in-form Yonga Lass over 1400m on November 18.

He had to overcome some trouble before finding the late to grab fourth in that resumption and he's now back in grade second-up to a 'One Metro Win' affair.

This looks like one of Damien Oliver's strongest engagements on Winterbottom Stakes day and with even luck, he only needs to hold his form to be right in this.

Value: 4. Mama Tembu. She had recorded back-to-back triumphs at Belmont before the seasonal switch to Ascot and after two flat performances in October, Mama Tembu was sent for a freshen-up.

The five-year-old is more than capable of turning around here on return, where she looks suited in what could be a fast run seven furlongs, as she can launch late.

While Mama Tembu hasn't been the easiest galloper to catch for punters over the journey, she's placed in stronger races than this over the last few seasons.

Race 7 - 4:02PM Tabtouch - Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic Tips (1400m)


Best: 3. Stormchaser. I wouldn't be that worried by the rise in trip second-up following a five-furlong return, as class got him home first-up over that sprint journey and 1400m shouldn't worry Stormchaser.

While he's now at Listed level, the son of Impending is back against his own age after nailing Bayezid fresh, a galloper who had won here the start prior.

A lot of his rivals are deep into their preps now and have perhaps already peaked, whereas the talented Stormchaser is the fresh one here with all of the upside.

Value: 4. Dreamers Never Die. A stablemate to Stormchaser, Dreamers Never Die is one of the outsiders in the Lee-Steere Classic field, however, he's giving the impression that he'll eat up 1400m now third-up.

An impressive debut winner at Belmont back in May, Dreamers Never Die then found two wet tracks at starts two and three before being tipped out.

Despite that early victory over 1000m, he's struggled early with the tempos of the sprint trips in this second campaign, but he's still ticking along okay.

Race 8 - 4:43PM Ascend Trophies - Jungle Dawn Classic Tips (1400m)


Best: 4. Rusty Dreams. Visually, she was plain when fading for fourth second-up in the Jungle Mist Classic, although there were excuses in that outing, with an elevated heart rate detected in the post-race.

I'm happy to forgive that performance, as the 1200m return was still strong despite finishing third as a short fav and getting out to 1400m third-up is perfect.

She was also set alight early in that last effort, as they had to overcome a wide alley, but with a good draw over this trip, Rusty Dreams maps for a softer run here. 

Value: 1. Baby Paris. 1400m appears the main query with Baby Paris, as all of her prior winning form is over sprint distances, although you can't sack a horse before it has even been tried over the trip.

In her favour on Saturday is barrier three, as she'll no work just off what looks a modest tempo and that wasn't the case last start, where she was three-wide.

The mare understandably tired given the work she did on a strong speed there, but she was a $5 chance in that Jungle Mist and now a double-quote is available.

Race 9 - 5:20PM Crown Perth - Winterbottom Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 8. Triple Missile. This six-year-old returns west after eight runs in Victoria for Lindsey Smith and while he's had setbacks over the last 12 months or so, Triple Missile has been able to complete two runs this prep.

A talented sprinter with a huge turn-of-foot, Triple Missile has won four races at Ascot and he bettered the times of the 2021 Winterbottom Stakes when saluting over this track/trip two years ago.

Champion jockey Damien Oliver will ride Triple Missile in his second last Group 1 engagement before retirement and to overcome what could be a sticky map, this galloper couldn't be in better hands.

Value: 4. Hot Zed. One of the leading locals is this gelding prepared by Hall Of Fame trainer Lou Luciani, a sprinter who was a tad unlucky when fourth in last year's Winterbottom and he's arguably going better now.

1000m is too slick for Hot Zed now and with those five-furlong outings purely there as prep runs first and second-up, the six-year-old was able to build off that platform when saluting last start.

While he was sent out as a $13 chance in that recent Group 3 Colonel Reeves tilt, he saluted like a good thing when sprinting hard late in that 1100m affair after covering ground throughout.

Race 10 - 5:55PM Lexus Of Perth Handicap Tips (1200m)


Best: 2. Bitofmerit. While he's the most brilliant sprinter in this lineup when right, Bitofmerit can deliver the occasional head-scratcher and that was the case first-up, although he wasn't beaten far there.

After being eased back from a wide draw, the son of Demerit recorded aq more encouraging display second-up over 1100m and the sectionals backed it up.

Lucy Fiore now has a few options early from barrier three and coming back in grade from one of the key Winterbottom lead-ups, the gelding is well-placed third-up.

Value: 4. Corn Cob. He beat nothing via a visually impressive trial on his home deck, however, Corn Cob didn't get out of second gear in that Geraldton workout and we already know he's metro class.

Although many of those better city runs have come over a little further, he's always been a versatile galloper in regards to distance (has won four over 1200m).

Whether he's sharp enough to match a few of these classy sprinters remains to be seen, however, he's very genuine and the market is underrating him first-up.
                                                

Verdict

Our best & value bets for Saturday's Winterbottom Stakes meeting are:

Best Bet1: Stormchaser To Win @16/5 at bet365 Australia - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Bitofmerit To Win @9/2 at Bet Right - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Triple Missile Each Way @81/10 at Boombet - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Playhouse Patron Each Way @6/1 at Neds - 2 Units
Stormchaser
To Win
@16/5 - 3 Units
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Bitofmerit
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@9/2 - 3 Units
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Triple Missile
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