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2020 Victoria Derby Betting Tips, Preview & Odds

  • Justin Darcy outlines some of the chances in this year's Victoria Derby
  • Is Let's Karaka Deel the one?
  • Can Young Werther stay the trip?
Victoria Derby Tips
Warning was the winner of the 2019 Victoria Derby (Getty Images)

Victoria Derby Information


  • DateSat 30 Oct, 2021
  • Race Time05:00
  • RacecourseFlemington
  • Race Distance2500 metres
  • Conditions3yo - Set Weights
  • StatusGroup 1
  • Prize Money$2,000,000
The Victoria Derby is the crowning event for the staying 3YO's on the first day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival.

Run over 2500m, the horses with the miles in the legs, and either coming through the Norman Robinson or the Spring Champion Stakes feature prominently.

This year, the untapped Young Werther heads the betting while the Normal Robinson form features the first three home in the first five in betting.

2020 Victoria Derby Betting Odds

No
Horse
Trainer
Jockey
Barrier
Odds
1Cherry TortoniP. PayneB. Egan14$6
2AlbaradoT. Busuttin & N. YoungM. Zahra8$8
3Johnny Get AngryD. PaganL. King5$26
4Let's Karaka DeelC. Maher & D. EustaceJ. Allen3$7
5Young WertherD. O'BrienD. Oliver4$3
6Hit The ShotM. CumaniF. Kersley9$8
7CetshwayoD. O'BrienJ. Kah10$21
8Redwood ShadowM. Price & M. Kent JnrJ. McNeil12$11
9Wertheimer T. Busuttin & N. YoungH. Bowman6$26
10Tour Of DutyM. MoroneyJ. McDonald13$26
11Token SpiritR. Griffiths & M. de KockD. Lane11$51
12Born To SucceedS. HasanM. Walker7$101
13WisakaM. MoroneyB. Melham2$34
14KenzanD. O'BrienD. Moor1$67

Odds are provided by Sportsbet and are correct on 27/10/2020.

2020 Victoria Derby Tips

Victoria Derby 2020 Best Bet - Let's Karaka Deel (Tipped at $61)

I still cannot believe the price he opened up at, and that he is still good each-way value.

Forget he went around in the Derby trial, not seeing the light of day for one stride for the entire event.

He then crawled in the Norman Robinson at Caulfield, which was always going to suit those 3YO's back in the field with a better turn of foot.

Expect him to roll forward again and set a more genuine tempo that can hopefully take the sting out of the rest of the field, including the favourite who is having just his third start and a big step up in trip.

Let's not forget Warning finished second in the same race last year before bolting in the Derby.

Victoria Derby 2020 Next Best Bet - Young Werther

Having just the two runs and four weeks between runs is not ideal for this son of Tavistock, but we have seen Danny O'Brien choose a similar path in the past leading up to a Derby for Russian Camelot.

He should be unbeaten, incredibly stiff in behind last start in the Super Impose which proved a strong form race last year for the Derby.

He was scratched from the Moonee Valley Vase on Saturday due to the wet track and how much that run could have taken out of him, so you would think he will have done a hard piece of work to bring his fitness up to scratch.

He has incredible x-factor and if fit enough, he is going to prove a force to be reckoned with.

Victoria Derby Value Bet - Hit The Shot

I like the profile of this horse coming into the Derby.

What we know he has is a turn of foot, so if he stays the journey really well, his turn of foot will go a long way, but otherwise he may need a slowly run event as he got last time in the Norman Robinson.

He won his maiden with class on the Ballarat Synthetic track over 1400m, before tackling a race at Moonee Valley that never suited. 

Since that run, he finished fourth in the Derby Trial, storming home from that back of the field and again in the Normal Robinson, finding himself in third position.

The only query from that run is does he genuinely want the 2500m or did he finish so hard purely because they ran along so slowly?


Victoria Derby FAQ

What date is the 2020 Victoria Derby?

The 2020 Victoria Derby is scheduled to run on Saturday, October 31, 2020 at Flemington.

What time is the 2020 Victoria Derby?

The Victoria Derby generally starts at around 4pm.

How can I live stream the 2020 Victoria Derby?

Visit our live streaming hub for all the information on how to live stream the Victoria Derby and all other Australian horse races.

Who won the 2019 Victoria Derby?

Warning won the 2019 Victoria Derby.

What distance is the Victoria Derby?

The Victoria Derby is run over a distance of 2500 metres.

What's the best bet in the 2020 Victoria Derby?

We're with Let's Karaka Deel as the best bet in the 2020 Victoria Derby.

US

Verdict

Having already backed Let's Karaka Deel at $61 (3 units), we will be backing Young Werther in the race as the main danger.

Best Bet: Young Werther To Win @200 at BetMGM - 10 Units
Value Bet (Tipped at $61): Let's Karaka Deal Each Way @600 at bet365 Sport NJ - 3 Units

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