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Memsie Stakes Runner-By-Runner Preview

  • The Memsie Stakes is the first Victorian Group One for the new season
  • A strong field has been assembled for the Saturday feature from Caulfield
  • We analyse the chances of each runner in the Memsie Stakes
  • Betting Suggestions & Staking Plan provided
Memsie Stakes runner-by-runner guide
Who will take out the 2020 Memsie Stakes? (Getty)

Melbourne hosts it's traditional group one kick-off for the new season at Caulfield this Saturday via the running of the Memsie Stakes.

A strong line-up has been assembled and we go through the chances of each runner ahead of the $750,000 feature.
SPEEDMAP:

From barrier seven, Declan Bates shouldn't have too much trouble taking up the early lead on Begood Toya Mother and those drawn wide that will push forward include Streets Of Avalon, Savatiano and potentially Glenfiddich from 10.

Iconoclasm should get every chance early to find the box-seat from gate one and So Si Bon is another that'll look to settle in the first half a dozen from barrier three.

Behemoth appears to have drawn a little sticky in two, however, he does have some versatility and Craig Williams will be wary of the possible traffic ahead. He should at least land midfield if not a shade closer.

RUNNER-BY-RUNNER PREVIEW:

1. Regal Power (9) @ $17.00 via Palmerbet - J: W.Pike. T: G & A. Williams

Why he can win: Generally he improves from his fresh runs and his last two second-up efforts have included a Group One Railway Stakes win and victory in the 2020 All Star Mile which was at Caulfield. A more genuine tempo will suit.

Why he can't win: He was plain in the P.B Lawrence and remaining at 1400m appears a knock for now (he was beaten four and a half lengths the last time he remained at this distance second-up). Could be a run short still.

2. Harlem (6) @ $126.00 via Sportsbet - J: J.Mott. T: Dabernig & Hayes

Why he can win: Proven group one weight-for-age galloper and is no stranger to lobbing at huge odds. Has been very competitive in all first-up attempts at Caulfield and from barrier six, he should get every chance under Jamie Mott.

Why he can't win: Very hard horse to catch and hasn't won below 2000 metres, so the fresh tilt at seven-furlongs appears too sharp. Most likely looking for them longer journey's a little further into the spring.

3. Gatting (12) @ $51.00 via PlayUp - J: L.Nolen. T: P.Moody

Why he can win: It's not a dissimilar profile that saw him win the Makybe Diva Stakes last spring and he'll have some residual fitness having been up in winter. Perhaps one targeted towards the early spring by new trainer Peter Moody.

Why he can't win: Now a seven-year-old and did go backwards in three earlier runs this year in what were very winnable races for him in the west. May need at least a mile to show his best these days and he has barrier 12 to contend with.

4. So Si Bon (3) @ $26.00 via Unibet Australia - J: D.Stackhouse. T: Dabernig & Hayes

Why he can win: His last two wins have come at Caulfield and wasn't disgraced in the CF Orr Stakes over these same conditions first-up in the autumn. Has the benefit of a solid Aurie's Star run under his belt, draws well and was runner-up in the Memsie last year.

Why he can't win: Whilst he's been competitive in some group one weight-for-age events, he does appear better suited to the Handicaps and has never won over 1400 metres. Might be using this as a stepping stone for the Rupert Clarke.

5. Streets Of Avalon (15) @ $23.00 via Sportsbet - J: B.Melham. T: S.Nichols

Why he can win: Has an excellent record over the seven furlongs at Caulfield which includes a Group One Futurity Stakes win earlier in the year. Can put himself into the race and appears as of the few that's actually set for the Memsie.

Why he can't win: Very flat in the P.B Lawrence where he was expected to figure. Track is currently a Soft 6 with some rain predicted on Thursday (has no form on wet tracks) and has been given no favours by the wide draw. Perhaps had his birthday in the Futurity?

6. Mr Quickie (5) @ $26.00 via PlayUp - J: D.Dunn. T: P.Stokes

Why he can win: Was enormous when produced fresh into the Maybe Diva last spring, so is certainly capable of a big run first-up. Is a winner at Caulfield and has prevailed in three of four 1400 metre outings. A good speed will suit and Dwayne Dunn has options from the gate.

Why he can't win: Hasn't won since the 2019 Queensland Derby and had chances to do so in two campaigns that have followed that. Has found the mile a little sharp in his last two fresh attempts, so the seven furlongs has to be a query here.

7. Behemoth (2) @ $4.20 via Bet365 - J: C.Williams. T: D.Jolly

Why he can win: Comfortably accounted for the talented Dalasan fresh in Adelaide to back-up an excellent trial which indicated he was going as well as ever. This looms as a genuine target and he should have the best turn of foot in the race at 1400m. Looks the one to beat.

Why he can't win: Barrier two could be potentially be a little sticky for this big gelding that relishes space to wind-up and launch late. Has proven to be a little more dynamite over shorter trips to date, has failed via his one Caulfield run and is still yet to win at group one level.

8. Iconoclasm (1) @ $51.00 via Palmerbet - J: D.Moor. T: D.O'Brien

Why he can win: Draws perfectly to lob handy from barrier one where the box-seat is on offer if Moor wants it or he could push on if there's a bias. Has a great strike rate overall and has won over the 1400 metres at Caulfield. Very genuine when conditions suit.

Why he can't win: He's not appreciating the spaced-out runs and all of his form in on firmer tracks. Improves deeper into his work and hasn't fired a shot in five group one attempts to date. Neither Oliver or Williams ride which seems a lead in itself.

9. Cascadian (8) @ $11.00 via Unibet Australia - J: D.Oliver. T: J.Cummings

Why he can win: Was certainly one of the better runs in the P.B Lawrence and champion hoop Damien Oliver remains in the saddle from that return. Consistent, handles any conditions and now in his third Australian preparation, looks ready to produce this spring.

Why he can't win: There's definite question marks around his Sydney form which doesn't scream group one weight-for-age contender. Is yet to fire second-up and looks a galloper that will be better suited going into the Rupert Clarke and Toorak Handicaps.

10. Begood Toya Mother (7) @ $19.00 via Bet365 via - J: D.Bates. T: D.Bowman

Why he can win: Makes his own luck on the speed and stripping fitter off his Regal Roller attempt, can roll along at a genuine tempo under Declan Bates which will suit. Is a three-time winner at Caulfield which includes a group one triumph via the 2019 Rupert Clarke.

Why he can't win: Has failed produce since that Rupert Clarke win and he was airborne during that period. Has been well held in his last three weight-for-age attempts so there's a definite query on him at this level and he was only fair first-up.

11. Mystic Journey (4) @ $11.00 via Sportsbet - J: B.Egan. T: A.Trinder

Why she can win: Arguably did enough fresh considering she was three-wide throughout and from barrier four this time around, will do far less work in transit. Won her only two other attempts over the 1400 metres at Caulfield and is open to improvement here second-up with more favours.

Why she can't win: Has been below her best and hasn't taken the required next step since her late three-year-old efforts. Five-year-old mare now that's had some setbacks since then. There has to be doubts around her recapturing her best.

12. Arcadia Queen (13) @ $7.00 via Palmerbet - J: D.Lane. T: G & A. Williams

Why she can win: High class mare who was a definite pass mark fresh when holding ground in the P.B Lawrence off a long spell which was her first Melbourne run. Is arguably the most talented galloper in the field and could easily win the Memsie without surprising.

Why she can't win: Whilst fair first-up, she does need to lift off that performance to figure here and is perhaps still a run or two short of producing. Has a tough barrier to overcome and we have to go back to 2018 to find the strong figures which brought the big hype.

13. Savatiano (11) @ $4.80 via Unibet Australia - J: M.Zahra. T: J.Cummings

Why she can win: Was well fancied to win the P.B Lawrence and duly saluted to make her one of the few arriving to this feature in winning form. Genuine mare that hasn't finished outside the top two from seven second-up attempts and is unbeaten over the 1400 metres at Caulfield.

Why she can't win: Drew well and needed to last start whereas here she has barrier 11 this tiime and as a result, will be working early to find a position. Might lack the class of some of the better gallopers who arrive to the Memsie fitter now.

14. Princess Jenni (14) @ $51.00 via Bet365 - J: E.Brown. T: D.Brideoake

Why she can win: By all reports she's working very well which perhaps explains the more aggressive approach to take on this group one challenge compared to prior campaigns where they have been conservative early. Has won at Caulfield and can finish strong off a good tempo.

Why she can't win: Up to a mile and with the fresh performance behind her has been the recipe in the past. Was disappointing in much easier company via her last two efforts over the autumn and neither Ben Melham or Damien Oliver ride this Saturday.

15. Glenfiddich (10) @ $12.00 via Sportsbetting.com.au  - J: C.Newitt. T: P.Moody 

Why he can win: Resuming three-year-old that has ability and by all reports, has been working strongly which goes a long way to explaining the fresh Memsie tilt here down in the weights. Straight to 1400m suits this colt who was tough throughout a long two-year-old campaign.

Why he can't win: There's an obvious query in tackling the older opposition for the first time and there's still question marks on the depth of that Melbourne juvenile form from last season. This is a steep ask from the events he was participating in.



Memsie Stakes FAQs

When is the 2020 Memsie Stakes?

The 2020 Memsie Stakes is scheduled to run on Saturday, August 29.

What time is the 2020 Memsie Stakes?

The 2020 Memsie Stakes is scheduled for a 4.45pm (AEST) start time.

It will run as Race 8 on the Caulfield program.

Where is the Memsie Stakes held?

The Memsie Stakes is held at the Caulfield Racecourse in Melbourne.

What's the Memsie Stakes worth?

The Memsie Stakes is worth $750,000 in total.

$450,000 of that goes to the winner.

Who won the 2019 Memsie Stakes?

Scales Of Justice won the 2019 Memsie Stakes at a starting price of $3.70.

What distance is the Memsie Stakes?

The Memsie Stakes is run over a distance of 1400 metres.

How can I live stream the 2020 Memsie Stakes?

Visit our live streaming hub for all the information on how to live stream the Memsie Stakes and all other Australian horse races.

Verdict

Behemoth is the deserving favourite and the one to beat in the 2020 Memsie Stakes off a strong fresh win.

Three-year-old Glenfiddich shouldn't be discounted and down in the weights, makes each-way appeal.

Princess Jenni is huge odds but worth including for the roughie or exotic players.

Best Bet: Behemoth To Win @4.20 at bet365 Australia - 6 Units
Value Bet: Glenfiddich Each Way @12.00 at Sportsbetting - 3 Units
Roughie: Princess Jenni Each Way @51.00 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit

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