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Ascot Racing Tips - Will she Dance to the Music?

Alex Marsh has previewed the bumper card from Ascot this Saturday.
Ascot Racing Tips for 23.11.2019
Scales Of Justice won the Railway Stakes in 2016. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

Ascot Racing Tips For 23.11.2019 - Will she Dance to the Music?

It's Railway Stakes day in the west with three listed events and a group two before the $1 million dollar Group One Railway Stakes in Race 8.

They've been able to make ground at Ascot recently and the rail moves back to the 2m position on a Good 4 surface.

Ascot Favourites

Race 7 No. 1 Dig Deep

Unfortunately the connections were unlucky for a fourth time this campaign at the barrier draw with this son of Deep Field having come up with gate ten.

He does appear as the obvious off the lead-up to the WA Guineas via his Fairetha Stakes effort on November 9 where he was the clear eye-catcher with this 1600m in mind.

Gets the services of champion hoop Damien Oliver who likely heads back from the wide alley but if the track plays like last Saturday, then it won't be an issue in making ground out wide.

Has a 3kg weight swing on Red Can Man from that last attempt and whilst he'll need some luck, Did Deep is still the one to beat.

Ascot Roughies

Race 8 No. 8 Variation

In a typically competitive Railway stakes line-up, this honest type appears to be getting under the radar in the betting.

The last run was at Caulfield on October 19 when getting home as runner-up behind the useful Streets Of Avalon and Variation didn't exactly beat home a field of walkers himself.

His form at Ascot overall is terrific where the only time he's finished outside the top three from ten attempts was in the 2017 Railway Stakes as fourth and was beaten only three quarters of a length.

I have Samizdat on top but at long odds, this gelding goes into the exotics and quaddie if you're hunting a blowout.


Ascot Best Bet

Race 6 No. 3 Dance Music

This looks a third-up black-type target for this War Chant mare who improved off a fresh flop as runner-up here on November 9.

She wasn't able to quite match it with the progressive Uni Time late there but is open for improvement to peak now and in this line-up, can take up the early running.

Has already won in listed company over this track and trip whilst she's prepared by strong Simon Miller yard that is striking at better than twenty five per cent at Ascot over the last twelve months.

Her main threat is clearly Electric Light but with the tactical advantage over that mare, Dance Music makes a strong case as the best bet at Ascot.


Ascot Next Best Bet

Race 9 No. 10 Carocapo

Following the same form lines as Dance Music with this Jim Taylor trained six-year-old who's aiming to score in the last race on the card.

Barring a second-up performance that was too bad to be true, he's been working towards a win and last start third placing was terrific under the circumstances.

He elected to take a trail off the leader in that event where after it dropped off at the 200m, Caracapo was there to be run down but he was clearly the pick of the on-pace brigade.

Similar to our best bet where Pike rides the key threat, Carocapo is another that'll need less luck in the run than Black Sabbath and starts shorter if the form is franked earlier in the card.

Ascot Best Value Bet

Race 5 No. 5 Wrinkly

He won't die wondering will this front runner who teams up with the Brad and Neville Parnham combination.

Has a habit of being rather hit or miss over the journey although his effort last week when only be gobbled up late by Abdicator, suggested he's not far away now with fitness under the belt.

Wrinkly has won on the seven day turnaround before and whilst this is a tougher field on paper, there's many that are either out of form or have genuine queries in this.

His class is the query, but makes his own luck and at the double figure price, is value on an each way basis.


Ascot Quaddie

Race 6: 3
Race 7: 1,2,6,9,10
Race 8: 6,7,8,12,13
Race 9: 8,9,10

$75 gets you 100%.

Railway Stakes Day Information

What time is the first race?

Race 1 will start at 12.24pm local time.

What time is the Railway Stakes?

The Group One Railway Stakes is scheduled to start at 4.50pm local time.

Who is William Pike riding in the Railway Stakes?

"The Wizard" William Pike is on Regal Power in the feature who is currently an $8.50 quote with Neds

Who won the 2018 Railway Stakes?

Galaxy Star won this group one in 2018.

How do I bet on Ascot?

All of the Australian corporate bookmakers have markets up.

Sportsbetting.com.au is one of the options available.

How do I live stream Ascot?

Visit our live streaming hub where you can get all the information on how to live stream racing and sport.

Verdict

The value keeps diminishing but we'll still go with Dance Music as the best chance on the program.

Carocapo is fit now and the one to beat in the last at a good price.

Probably fancy him more for the place but Wrinkly is still capable of giving a sight in Race 5.

Best Bet: Dance Music @2.25 at Ladbrokes Australia - 12 Units
Next Best Bet: Carocapo @4.20 at Beteasy - 6 Units
Value: Wrinkly @12.00 at bet365 Australia - 2 Units

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Betting Slip | 23 Nov 2019

Race 6 Ascot

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