NBL Round 3 Tips: Predictions by Josh Higgins from The Basketball Fix Podcast

With both teams coming into this interesting matchup winless, it is going to be a tough and physical encounter as both teams try to keep their seasons alive. 

For the 36ers it will be star players Kendric Davis, Dejan Vasiljevic and Montrezl Harrell trying to carry this team to victory. For the Phoenix it will be former Grand Final MVP Derek Walton Jr and Nathan Sobey trying to get them rolling in this contest. 

Sobey has struggled in recent times trying to assert himself into this lineup and rotation but the 36ers are a team who he historically plays well against. He has the highest average points against his former team, averaging 20.8 PPG over his journey. If he can settle himself into this game and hit some early shots, we may see a breakout game for Nathan Sobey.

It won't be all roses for S.E.M as Adelaide are a very strong team at home winning the past 5 games at the Adelaide Entertainment Centre. 

Josh's Tips: Adelaide To Win ($1.58 EliteBet) & Nathan Sobey for 15+ Points ($1.56 PlayUp)

One of the more difficult games to pick for a number of reasons, as the Cairns Taipans are trying to figure out their game plan and even style of play. Compared to an experienced and veteran savvy Championship team in the Tasmanian JackJumpers, who have shown that defence is key. 

For me the matchup with the most importance is Rob Edwards v Milton Doyle. Edwards coming off a game where he scored 31 points in a win will be eager to continue that form against one of the premier defenders in the league. 

Doyle is currently averaging 18 PPG and will look to attack Edwards on the other end to try and get the Tasmanian JackJumpers over the line. 

As we know though, these JackJumper games are always low scoring and always tight so when we are looking at the over/under market, be aware of that. 

Josh's Tips: Tasmania To Win ($1.48 Dabble) & Milton Doyle for 15+ Points ($1.32 EliteBet)

The oldest rivalry there is will be reignited on Friday night in the Jungle at RAC Arena. 

Perth are a more offensively minded team compared to United who are more defensive and  the question like always will be, who can stop Bryce Cotton? Will it be Shae Illi, Matthew Dellavedova or someone else, all things considered this is the toughest matchup in the NBL currently. 

In terms of these contests, 4 of the past 6 matches have gone under 179.5 points as these games turn chippy and tough down the stretch making it hard to score the ball. With the game total currently set at 180.5 this is going to make it very interesting. 

Keanu Pinder is a player to watch in this matchup, coming off a poor performance at the hands of the Sydney Kings and will look to rewrite his past sins. In his past 9 matchups against Melbourne United, Pinder has had over 6+ rebounds in all of them. 

Josh's Tips: Keanu Pinder 6+ Rebounds ($1.69 EliteBet) & Under 180.5 Points ($1.91 Dabble)

The Hawks come into this battle at home as the top team in the NBL with their perfect record of 3-0. 

The Hawks average a league high 103.7 PPG and the 36ers give up an astounding 101.5 PPG. This game has all the making of another dominating performance by the Hawks, who have won 2 of their 3 games by over 10 points and have an average winning margin of 15.3 points. 

The key match up though will be how the Hawks slow down NBA veteran Montrezl Harrell who has been dominant in both of his opening games in the NBL, averaging 16.5 points and 9 rebounds. Can Sam Froling do the job or will it be a combined effort to limit him? 

Darius Days is another player that can definitely take over this game. The Hawks import has impressed everyone with his tough play style and comes into this one with averages of 15 points and 8 rebounds and could look to improve both of these averages this game, as the 36ers allow 40 rebounds against them so far. 

For me though this one has Hawks domination all over it.

Josh's Tips: Hawks To Win By 11+ ($2.55 PlayUp) & Darius Days Double Double ($3.60 EliteBet)

There won’t be a more one sided game than this in round 3, as the only thing Bullets fans will be happy about is that they get to see their team at home. 

The Kings being $1.37 favourites in this matchup, this does present any real value. The Kings have started the season with a perfect 2-0 record on the road and will not blemish their undefeated road streak in Brisbane.

There are not many good signs for the Bullets as they are the worst team at allowing their opponents to have a very high field goal percentage as well as 3 point percentage. They have also allowed a league worst 102 PPG in their horrible start to this season. 

The key matchup for this game has to be how do the Bullets slow down the dangerous combination of Jaylen Adams and Xavier Cooks. With both of these superstars averaging over 20 points per game it will be interesting to see how the superstar duo goes against a very weak and undermanned Bullets team who are trying to find their place in NBL25.

Josh's Tips: Jaylen Adams For 20+ Points/Sydney Kings Win ($2.25 Dabble) & Sydney Kings To Lead At Every Quarter Break ($2.40 PlayUp)

The road for Cairns doesn't really get much easier after a matchup with the NBL24 Champions, they then face NBL24 runner-up in their home stadium. 

Melbourne who come into this game as heavy favourites will have all the pressure on them to get the job done, but if there is anything we know about Melbourne, we know they are a strong home team. With wins in 14 of their 19 home games last season, they will look to replicate that this season and be contenders for the Championship once again.

One stat to note though is Cairns have won 5 of the past 6 games against Melbourne United and could look to extend a 3 game winning streak against them this weekend. The key for the Taipans though will be starting hot as Melbourne have lost 2 of their first 3 first quarters this season. 

The key matchup for this game has to be the duel between Jack White and Tanner Groves. Groves. Jack White coming off of a huge double double and will be eager to get in front of his home fans this weekend and show them how much he has improved. 

Melbourne should be too strong in this game but the Taipans have had the edge over United for the past couple of matchups and will give them a scare in the first quarter.

Josh's Tips: Jack White For 15+ Points ($1.49 EliteBet) & 1st Quarter Winner - Cairns Taipans ($2.57 PlayUp)

To cap off what is going to be an exciting round, we are left with one game, the JackJumpers versus the Wildcats. 

This has quickly become one of the most exciting rivalries in the NBL and we are sure this game will be no different. The pain and revenge is real for the Wildcats going down to the JackJumpers in a semi final series last season after a second placed finish.

When we look back to last season it was the Wildcats who came out on top of the season series with a 2-1 win/loss record. The only loss though was in Tasmania, where the JackJumpers have made a fortress. 

These two teams couldn't have more different play styles even if they tried. The Wildcats are one of the best offensive sides averaging a top two, 96.5 PPG and the Tasmanian JackJumpers have built their entire existence off of defence only allowing a league low 80 PPG. 

The Wildcats will have to be on the top of their game to knock off the JackJumpers at home and it will take a whole team effort. The worry for the JackJumpers is going to be the overall depth that the Wildcats have, with Cotton, Pinder, Windler, Webster, Pepper, Doolittle and Henshall to name a few. 

Josh’s Tips: Perth Wildcats To Win By 1-10 Points ($3.30 PlayUp)

As always enjoy your weekend of NBL action and remember to always gamble responsibly.