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Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Tips - Doggies solidify their place in the eight
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- Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne expert predictions for Friday’s AFL game
- The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 7:15 PM (AEST)
- Bulldogs have won six of their last seven games, including victories against top teams.
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Jez's picks for AFL Friday.
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne, Round 21 2024 - Expert Prediction
The Western Bulldogs will cement their spot in the finals bracket with their sixth win in 7 games when they beat Melbourne by a 1-39 margin.
- Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne, Round 21 2024 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Western Bulldogs Team News
- Western Bulldogs Team List
- Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Melbourne Team News
- Melbourne Team List
- Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 21 FAQ’s
The Bulldogs have risen from a mediocre start to the season to beat four top contenders for the premiership in the past 6 weeks. They now find themselves in their familiar spot of just inside or outside the top-eight and will now need to solidify their place in the finals over the next couple of weeks.
The Bulldogs come up against Melbourne who have been inconsistent and poor over the second half of the season and are looking more likely to miss the finals than still be hanging around.
The Demons attack is what has hurt them all season and that will be the case in this game, failing to score enough points against the Western Bulldog defensive structure that has been incredibly impressive over the past couple of games.
- 7 of 9 Melbourne losses this season have been by a margin of 1-39
- The Western Bulldogs have won their past 3 games, all against top-eight teams.
- The Western Bulldogs have held their past two opponents to 48 points in each match.
- Melbourne averaged 76.6 points in their past 10 matches.
Head to Head
Melbourne have won 5 of the past 9 matches against the Western Bulldogs and 4 of the past 5.
However, the last win for the Dogs was the last time they played at Marvel Stadium back in 2022 and the following two wins by Melburne have both been by just 9 points.
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 12-7 | 5-5 | 6-3 |
Where did the Doggies come from…..????
They have taken down four serious contenders in the past 6 weeks, beating Freo, Geelong, Carlton and took no bigger scalp than they can last week, embarrassing league leaders the Sydney Swans by 39 points last weekend.
Looking at the last 3 wins against the Swans, Cats and Blues, the Bulldogs have a +34 inside 50 differential, a +36 ground-ball gets differential, a +38 interception count and a 74-point advantage in scores from turnovers.
It has been near perfect footy from the Bulldogs who have played a lot of the match inside their forward third by winning the ball hard and cutting off the attack of their opponents and turning it into their own offence.
Western Bulldogs Team News
The Bulldogs are getting healthy at the right time of the year. James O’Donnell could return this week after being missing for the past month with a hamstring strain.
Anthony Scott suffered another concussion and will likely miss the rest of the regular season.
Western Bulldogs Team List
B: T.Duryea, B.Khamis, N.Coffield
HB: L.Bramble, R.Lobb, B.Dale
C: L.Vandermeer, E.Richards, B.Williams
HF: A.Treloar, A.Naughton, J.Ugle-Hagan
F: C.Weightman, S.Darcy, R.West
FOLL: T.English, M.Bontempelli - C, T.Liberatore
I/C: C.Daniel, R.Garcia, L.McNeil, L.Jones, C.Poulter
EMG: J.Macrae, J.Freijah, O.Baker
No changes
Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$25 | 8-11 | 6-7 | 4-2 |
Melbourne are hanging onto their slim chances of playing in September but cannot afford to drop another game this season , especially to a team such as the Bulldogs who they are competing for position against.
Melbourne lapsed for five-ish so minutes either side of the third quarter break allowing GWS to kick five straight goals which put the match out of reach for them in round 20, losing to the Giants 85-83 with their 4 goals at the end of the final term not giving them enough for victory.
Melbourne have just been unable to find the consistency needed in their own attack to be able to reward what is usually a good defensive stand. The Dees concede the sixth least points in the AFL, however, their 1427 points for is worth 14th-best and is where the imbalance in their performance lies.
The Demons are below average in all scoring statistics inside 50 with 23% G/In50, 44.1 ss/In50 and 46.7 S/In50.
Melbourne Team News
Caleb Windsor has a low-grade syndesmosis injury and will be sidelined indefinitely.
Koltyn Tholstrup will need to pass concussion protocol if he is to play on Friday.
Melbourne Team List
B: J.Lever, S.May, J.McVee
HB: J.Bowey, T.McDonald, A.Moniz-Wakefield
C: E.Langdon, C.Oliver, A.Neal-Bullen
HF: K.Pickett, J.van Rooyen, B.Fritsch
F: K.Chandler, H.Petty, J.Melksham
FOLL: M.Gawn - C, J.Viney, T.Rivers
I/C: B.Howes, T.Sparrow, K.Tholstrup, T.Woewodin, D.Turner
EMG: J.Billings, B.Laurie, A.Tomlinson
IN: B.Howes, T.Sparrow, K.Tholstrup
OUT: C.Windsor (Injured), J.Billings (Omitted), B.Laurie (Omitted)
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 21 FAQ’s
How to watch Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 21?
You can watch the Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 21 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 21?
To buy tickets to the Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 21 game check the AFL website or the official Western Bulldogs site.
Verdict
Melbourne will be held to less than 76.5 points in their 1-39 loss to the Bulldogs.
Western Bulldogs
1-39 Winning Margin
$2.20 - 3 Units
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Melbourne Under 76.5
Team Total
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