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Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers Tips - Dogs to bombard Essendon in win at Marvel

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Last updated: 12 Apr 2024
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Ryan Tucker 12 Apr 2024
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  • Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers expert predictions for Friday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
  • Despite recent losses, the Bombers are expected to put up a fight, making the game an exciting Friday night spectacle.
  • The current form, team news, betting trends, and expert predictions are all included in the detailed game preview.
Expired
The Bont
Marcus Bontempelli of the Bulldogs (Getty Images)

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction


The Bulldogs and Bombers clash in an epic Friday night battle at Marvel Stadium with the Doggies predicted to run out comfortable winners.
  • Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Western Bulldogs Team News
  • Western Bulldogs Team List
  • Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Essendon Bombers Team News
  • Essendon Bombers Team List
  • Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2024 Round 5 FAQs

Both teams left Gather Round in Adelaide with a big fat L last weekend with the Bombers being totally embarrassed by Port Adelaide in a 69 point loss. 

They now sit at 12th on the ladder with two wins and two losses and with their upcoming schedule alternating between top tier and bottom tier teams there is a chance for some movement over the next month and half. The question will be though in which direction. 

For the Western Bulldogs they hang on to 8th spot on the ladder on percentage, leading a group of five teams all on the same points. They were edged out by Geelong last weekend in a 4 point loss and were pressing hard to win with two minutes remaining in the game. 

The Dogs are clear favourites in this match-up and with the defensive effort Essendon put up last week the number may be a little inflated. The historical trend is a large Bulldogs margin but our predictive modelling keeps the the number Under 40 and that is what we will be riding this week.

  • Western Bulldogs have a 75.4% Disposal Efficiency so far this season, 3rd best in the league
  • The Bulldogs lead the AFL in Uncontested Possessions at 250.8 per game, way above the league average of 218.3
  • Essendon allow an above average number of Opposition Uncontested Possessions (222 per game) 8th worst in the league
  • Marcus Bontempelli has the 2nd best Player Rating in the AFL averaging 27 Disposals per game

Head to Head 


The Western Bulldogs dominate the Head to Head numbers against Essendon over the past five seasons. 

Since 2019 they have clashed 6 times with the Bulldogs winning five. They have taken the victory in the last three games in a row with two of those being by margins of 40+.

The Dogs have covered in all of their wins and the last three games straight have gone Under the Game Total. The previous three straight went Over. 

Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-22-23-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$141-00-12-1

The Bulldogs scrapped their way back into the game against Geelong last weekend finishing with only a 4 point losing margin. 

At one stage in the 4th quarter they were down by almost 30 points but it was a case of too little too late to secure the points.

The Dogs trio of Adam Treloar, Tom Liberatore and Marcus Bontempelli combined for 107 Disposals while the team exceeded their season average of Inside 50 Efficiency converting at a rate of 54.9% compared to 50.7% on the season.

Western Bulldogs Team News


The early news from afl.com.au is that Ryan Garnder will have to test his foot to be considered this weekend. Lachie Smith is still a few weeks away after suffering a training injury over the weekend.

Western Bulldogs Team List


B: E.Richards, L.Jones, B.Williams
HB: T.Duryea, B.Khamis, J.Johannisen
C: O.Baker, A.Treloar, H.Gallagher
HF: L.Vandermeer, A.Naughton, R.West

F: S.Darcy, J.Ugle-Hagan, C.Weightman
FOLL: T.English, M.Bontempelli - C, T.Liberatore

I/C: L.Bramble, B.Dale, J.Macrae, J.O’Donnell, R.Sanders
EMG: C.Daniel, R.Lobb, R.Garcia

IN: J.O’Donnell
OUT: C.Daniel (omitted)

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-22-22-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML
Over/Under
1-39
40+
$02-22-10-1

Essendon were in the game early against Port. They kicked a goal about seven minutes into the 2nd quarter bringing the score level but then the game escaped them. 

The Bombers had trouble at ball ups in the middle losing their Centre Clearances 19-6 and took only five marks Inside 50 for the whole game, half their season average of 10.8.

Zach Merrett and Nic Martin once again got their hands on the ball a lot with 36 and 35 Disposals respectively but it was the team’s defensive efforts which let them down. 

The good old one percenters metric tells the tale with Essendon ranked dead last at 37.8 per game compared to the AFL average of 45.3.

Essendon Bombers Team News


The early word from afl.com.au is not great for Essendon. Soft-tissue injuries are again making themselves known at the club with Archie Perkins set to miss a month of footy with a Hamstring injury. 

Jordan Ridley will be out for 4-6 weeks with a recurring quad problem whilst Will Setterfield has reinjured his knee, ruling him out of contention.

Zach Reid and Matt Guelfi are still a few weeks away with muscle injuries. Dylan Shiel and Tex Wanganeen will be eased back through the VFL.

Essendon Bombers Team List


B: D.Heppell, B.McKay, N.Hind
HB: N.Martin, M.Redman, A.McGrath
C: X.Duursma, D.Parish, J.Kelly
HF: S.Durham, K.Langford, A.Davey Jnr
F: J.Gresham, J.Stringer, B.Hobbs
FOLL: T.Goldstein, J.Caldwell, Z.Merrett - C

I/C: S.Draper, N.Cox, J.Laverde, H.Jones, J.Menzie
EMG: E.Tsatas, S.Weideman, N.Caddy

IN: S.Durham, A.Davey Jnr
OUT: W.Setterfield (Injured), A.Perkins (Injured)

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2024 Round 5 FAQs

How to watch Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2024 Round 5?

You can watch the Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2024 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2024 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2024 Round 5 game check the AFL website or the official Western Bulldogs site.

Verdict

With the injuries piling up on the Bombers their depth is being tested. The Bulldogs are a good team, but they aren’t a great team. 

The narrative here is that they will be held close by the Bombers early in the game but be able to win comfortably. The margin will be kept within 40 in line with our predictive modelling with the Game Total going Under.
Best Bet1: Bulldogs 1-39 Winning Margin @21/20 at Betr - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 172.5 Game Total @8/9 at Topsport - 2 Units
Bulldogs 1-39
Winning Margin
@21/20 - 2 Units
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Game Total
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Betting Slip | 12 Apr 2024

Western Bulldogs v Essendon