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Sydney vs Geelong Tips - Swans finally get revenge with a big win over the Cats.

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 07 Jun 2024
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Jeremy Darke 07 Jun 2024
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  • Sydney vs Geelong expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at SCG, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
  • Swans are two wins clear at the top of the AFL ladder.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Best Bets for AFL Sunday & Monday, June 9-10.

Sydney vs Geelong, Round 13 2024 - Expert Prediction


It has been 624 days come game day when the Swans will get their third chance to rectify their heavy defeat in the 2022 Grand Final against Geelong, but this time they will get it done, handing the Cats a big defeat, covering the 19.5-point line as favourites. 

The Swans look unbeatable at the moment and they will take this opportunity to put up a score on the Cats and make amends for the last year after the grand final loss. The swans are averaging 102 points per game this season and will score over their Team Total of 95.5 points.

The Sydney midfield has been exceptional and has been the engine room for them, linking back and forward line with fluency through the hands of Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney, who have continued to excel and develop into a formidable midfield pairing. Gulden will once again get his hands on the ball against Geelong and will record 25+ disposals.

  • Geelong have won just 1 of 5 games against current top 8 teams.  
  • The Swans lead the AFL in Goal Accuracy (54.6) and Goal Efficiency (27.3).
  • Geelong allow their opponents the most contested possession wins (138.0/G) and stoppage clearances (29.9/G).
  • Errol Gulden has made 25+ disposals in his past 8 games.

Head to Head 


Sydney were unable to get their revenge against Geelong in 2023 after getting pounded by the Cats by 81 points in the 2022 Grand Final. Geelong rubbed a kilo of salt in the wound in the pair’s first meeting of 2023, destroying Sydney again by 93 points in round 6. The Swans then failed again in round 16 with the game ending in a 54-point draw after Sydney had a 14-point lead in the third quarter.

Geelong have a stranglehold on Sydney, winning 6 of their past 8 games since the 2019 season.

Sydney Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
5-05-03-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$486-56-14-0

Sydney are in full control of the competition at the moment, two wins clear of Essendon in second place at the top of the AFL ladder. I still keep checking to see if their loss against Richmond is real as no team has really looked like challenging Sydney in long periods of the game, besides the Tigers.

The Western Bulldogs took a 4-point lead into halftime against the Swans in the previous game before their bye in round 12, however, it was more that Dogs were at their limit and Sydney never looked like losing in reality and were up by 30 points half-way through the fourth.

The Swannies are working their opponents and then taking their chances with both hands leading the AFL in Goal Accuracy (54.6) and Goal Efficiency (27.3). 

Sydney Team News


Tom McCartin has been cleared to play after suffering concussion in round 11.

Robbie Fox is still a week or two away, still suffering a little with his shoulder injury.

Sydney Team List


B: D.Rampe - C, T.McCartin, L.Melican
HB: O.Florent, N.Blakey, J.Lloyd
C: J.McInerney, Ch.Warner, E.Gulden
HF: S.Wicks, L.McDonald, T.Adams
F: T.Papley, J.Amartey, W.Hayward
FOLL: B.Grundy, I.Heeney, J.Rowbottom

I/C (FROM): M.Roberts, H.Cunningham, H.McLean, J.Jordon, B.Campbell, A.Francis, P.Ladhams

IN: T.McCartin, C.Cleary, P.Ladhams
OUT: Nil

Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-40-52-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$206-67-31-1

Geelong broke a four-game skid with a 30-point win over Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, moving them back into the top 3 on the ladder. The Cats did do it the hard way though, clawing their way back from a 29-point deficit in the second quarter, kicking the final 5 goals of the match to flip the margin. 

The Geelong midfield has not had the same effect on their opponents as it did in the opening seven rounds of the season where they were undefeated. The Cats are allowing their opponents the most contested possession wins (138.0/G) and stoppage clearances (29.9/G) which has translated to a loss in territory and less chances in their own attacking half.

Geelong Team News


The Cats are starting to look healthy again with Patrick Dangerfield a good chance to play next week, however, Ollie Henry will miss this week with a hamstring complaint.

Geelong Team List


B: J.Henry, S.De Koning, J.Kolodjashnij
HB: M.Duncan, T.Stewart - C, O.Mullin
C: M.Blicavs, M.Holmes, Z.Tuohy
HF: B.Close, J.Cameron, G.Miers
F: T.Stengle, T.Hawkins, S.Neale
FOLL: T.Conway, T.Atkins, T.Bruhn

I/C (FROM): Z.Guthrie, J.Bowes, M.O’Connor, J.Clark, G.Rohan, O.Dempsey, S.Mannagh

IN: M.Blicavs, J.Clark, R.Stanley, S.Mannagh
OUT: O.Henry (Injured)

Verdict

The Swans will get a good win kicking over 95.5 points on their way to cover the 19.5 point line as favourites. Errol Gulden will be heavily involved and will get another 25+ disposals in the match.
Best Bet1: Sydney -19.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at PlayUP - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Sydney Over 95.5 Team Total @9/10 at Topsport - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Errol Gulden 25+ Disposals @11/20 at Justbet - 3 Units
Sydney -19.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Sydney Over 95.5
Team Total
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Betting Slip | 09 Jun 2024

Sydney v Geelong