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Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Tips - Improved Kangas put up a fight against the league leading Swans

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 11 Jul 2024
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Jeremy Darke 11 Jul 2024
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  • Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at SCG, with the bounce at 1:45 PM (AEST)
  • North Melbourne has shown improved form, keeping recent games close.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Jez gives you the trends to follow in the early window of AFL in round 18.

Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction


The Sydney Swans are in a mini slump while North Melbourne are beginning to find their feet. With Isaac Heeney out the Swannies will continue to struggle and North Melbourne will keep this game within reach and cover the line as the underdog. 
  • Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Sydney Swans Team News
  • Sydney Swans Team List
  • North Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • North Melbourne Team News
  • North Melbourne Team List
  • Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

Surprisingly the history between these clubs is a tough battle no matter where they stand on the ladder. The Swans have failed to bury North Melbourne when they have faced each other over the past 5 seasons with the Kangass always causing Sydney more trouble than they do against other teams.

Following the trends, I’m backing the Kangas to keep this game under a 50-point winning margin to the Swans, which they have done in their past seven games by holding Sydney under 111.5 points, which they have done in 6 of their past 7 games.

  • The past 7 Swans victories over North Melbourne have been by a margin of 1-39. 
  • North Melbourne have had an average losing margin of 7 points in their past 3 losses. 
  • North Melbourne has covered the line in 6 of their past 7 games.
  • North Melbourne have held their opponents to an average of 82.8 points in their past 5 matches.

Head to Head 


Sydney have won the last 7 games against North Melbourne, including a tight encounter in round 10 of the 2023 season, edging out the Kangas by just 3 points with a late Hayden McLean goal completing a 16-point fourth quarter comeback.

Despite North Melbourne’s poor form over the past 5 seasons, Sydney have failed to dominate the Kangas, with their biggest victory just 38 points since 2019 and a winning margin mean of 11 in their six meetings.

Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-23-25-0

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$3911-58-35-0

The league leaders are in a slump after dropping their past two games to Fremantle by 1 point and more shockingly St Kilda by 2 points last weekend.

So what has happened to the Swans? Are teams figuring them out?

The simple answer is yes. Sydney have been impeccable over the the first half of the season but have not been the same over the past two weeks and a lot of it has to do with their ability to move the ball from their own half. 

Heading into their match against St Kilda the Swans had dropped from 1st to 11th since round 10 in score returns from defensive half turnovers, 1st to 9th in counterattack punish defensive half turnovers and 4th to 15th in average uncontested marks outside their forward 50. All statistics pointing towards their opponents reading their ball movement from their own half. 

Sydney Swans Team News


The Swans will be without Isaac Heeney, who has now been ruled out of the Brownlow race after being suspended for one week for striking St Kilda’s Jimmy Webster in Sydney’s loss last week.

Co-captain Callum Mills will return to the Swan’s side for his first game of the season, recovering from a rotator cuff injury.

Luke Parker will return to the squad after serving his suspension. 

Sydney Swans Team List


B: D.Rampe, T.McCartin, L.Melican
HB: O.Florent, N.Blakey, M.Roberts
C: J.Lloyd, Ch.Warner, E.Gulden
HF: J.Jordon, L.McDonald, R.Fox
F: T.Papley, J.Amartey, W.Hayward
FOLL: B.Grundy, (Replacement to be named), J.Rowbottom

I/C: B.Campbell, C.Mills - C, J.McInerney, T.Adams, H.McLean
EMG: S.Wicks, L.McAndrew, L.Parker

IN: C.Mills
OUT: S.Wicks (Omitted), I.Heeney (Suspended)

North Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-35-01-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$828-82-60-8

Being a Gold Coast fan it is no surprise that the Suns handed North Melbourne their second victory of the season, but kudos to the Kangas for getting it done.

To be fair, a win has actually been building for the North Melbourne club, who have been much better since their first win of the year against West Coast. Their average losing margin in their first 11 games before their win was a painful 52.09 points. Since beating the Eagles, they lost to Collingwood by 1 point, Melbourne by 3 points and the Western Bulldogs by 17 points.

The Kangaroos have simply been better defensively since round 13, holding their opponents to 83 points or less in 4 of 5 matches compared to 100+ points in each of their first 11 games. 

North Melbourne Team News


George Wardlaw will need to pass concussion protocol before he is selected this week.

Zac Fisher will also need to have his foot injury cleared.

North Melbourne Team List


B: A.Corr, C.Comben, T.Pink
HB: J.Archer, H.Sheezel, L.McDonald
C: D.Stephens, L.Davies-Uniacke, C.McKercher
HF: D.Tucker, B.Teakle, E.Ford
F: P.Curtis, N.Larkey, C.Zurhaar
FOLL: T.Xerri, T.Powell, J.Simpkin - C

I/C: C.Taylor, G.Wardlaw, B.Scott, L.Shiels, K.Dawson
EMG: J.Stephenson, W.Phillips, R.Hansen Jr

IN: G.Wardlaw
OUT: W.Phillips (Omitted)

Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 18?

You can watch the Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official Sydney Swans site.

Verdict

North Melbourne will cover the hefty line of 48.5 points as the underdog by containing the scoring of the Swans to under 111.5 points.
Best Bet1: North Melbourne -48.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at PlayUP - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Sydney Under 111.5 Team Total @8/9 at Topsport - 2 Units
North Melbourne -48.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
Bet at PlayUp
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Bet at PlayUP
Sydney Under 111.5
Team Total
@8/9 - 2 Units
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Betting Slip | 13 Jul 2024

Sydney v North Melbourne