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St Kilda vs North Melbourne Tips - Saints to win but Kangas to cover in low scoring game

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Last updated: 02 May 2024
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Ryan Tucker 02 May 2024
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  • St Kilda vs North Melbourne expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 4:35 PM (AEST)
  • Saints' past and present records indicate struggles in scoring, making Team Total Under a sound strategy.
  • Game Total Under has hit in 5 straight games between these teams, suggesting a possible continuation of this trend.
Expired
Jaidyn Stephenson
Jaidyn Stephenson of the Kangaroos (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

St Kilda vs North Melbourne, Round 8 2024 - Expert Prediction


There is little to no doubt on who wins this game (St Kilda) the question will be by how much. 
  • St Kilda vs North Melbourne, Round 8 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • St Kilda Team News
  • St Kilda Team List
  • North Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • North Melbourne Team News
  • North Melbourne Team List
  • St Kilda vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 8 FAQ’s

Every team that North Melbourne have played this year have scored over 100 points but the Saints are yet to score 100 themselves in a game this season and have only reached triple figures 3 times in their last 49 games, one of those against the Kangaroos in 2022. 

Based on those trends and the recent form of St Kilda i have no trouble in taking the Team Total Under for St Kilda with the follow on bet being the Game Total Under which has hit in 5 straight games between these teams.

  • St Kilda have only scored over 100 points in 3 of their last 49 games dating back to the 2022 season
  • The Saints turn the ball over at the highest rate of any team in the league, averaging 73 TO per game
  • North Melbourne are 1-6 ATS, a number which generally reverts to the middle over time
  • Only 1 of the last 6 games have had a winning margin of 40 points or more

Head to Head 


Since the beginning of the 2019 season the Saints and Kangaroos have met on 6 occasions with North winning the lone games in 2019 & 2020 before St Kilda embarked on a 4 game win streak leading us to this matchup.

5 of those 6 games have all been low scoring with 5 Game Totals going Under. The round 8 matchup between these teams last year resulted in a 64-32 win to the Saints keeping the total under 100 points. 

The most recent matchup in round 19, 2023 was a close affair with St Kilda running out eventual winners by only 8 points 69-61 in a game where they were favoured by 35.5 pts.

North Melbourne are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 against St Kilda.

St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-42-31-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$302-52-40-1

The Saints got out to an early lead against Port last weekend and even wrestled it back midway through the 3rd, but the Scoring pressure was in the end too much as the Power ended up taking the game by 10. 

The St Kilda numbers with the ball were significantly lower than their season averages with Port Adelaide having 208 Uncontested possessions keeping the pill out of the Saints hands. The turnovers continue to be a problem for St Kilda who again had over 70 in this game, they average the most in the AFL this season at 73 per game.

St Kilda Team News


In the lead up to teams being released we know that Max King will undergo a fitness test closer to the weekend to determine if he is right to play. Mason Wood has recovered from a broken collarbone and will be up for selection this or next week. Hunter Clark will also be a late decision. 

Max Heath has completed protocols surrounding a concussion from earlier in the season.

St Kilda Team List


B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie
HB: J.Webster, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera
C: A.Hastie, S.Ross, M.Wood
HF: D.Wilson, B.Hill, M.Phillipou
F: M.Owens, M.King, J.Hayes
FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, M.Windhager

I/C: R.Byrnes, L.Stocker, T.Membrey, R.Bonner, H.Garcia
EMG: L.Collard, Z.Cordy, T.Campbell

IN: J.Webster, M.Wood, M.King, J.Hayes
OUT: Z.Cordy (Managed), J.Higgins (Suspension), A.Caminiti (Omitted), C.Sharman (Omitted)

North Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
0-50-54-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$146-10-20-5

Well what is there to say about North. 0 from 7 to start the season have not even looked close to winning in any of those games. 

Last weekend against the Crows they at least scored over 80 points but they never led in the game and it was pretty much already over midway through the second period. There are some bright sparks in the team, Colby McKercher had a career high in Disposals with 32 in the game as well as taking 7 marks. But when compared to West Coast or even Hawthorn you don’t get the same feeling that they are improving on a weekly basis. 

North Melbourne Team News


In the early prognosis the Kangas have some worries over Jy Simpkin who will need to pass a fitness test to be in contention. Hamish Free will be out for a period of time following his second concussion. 

North Melbourne Team List


B: C.Comben, A.Corr, L.McDonald - C
HB: R.Hardeman, H.Sheezel, B.Scott
C: D.Tucker, L.Davies-Uniacke, C.McKercher
HF: Z.Duursma, T.Powell, Z.Fisher
F: P.Curtis, N.Larkey, C.Zurhaar
FOLL: T.Xerri, G.Wardlaw, J.Simpkin

I/C: T.Pink, L.Shiels, B.Drury, J.Archer, J.Stephenson
EMG: H.Greenwood, C.Lazzaro, W.Phillips

IN: T.Pink, L.Shiels, J.Archer, J.Stephenson
OUT: C.Lazzaro (Omitted), B.Nyuon (Omitted), W.Phillips (Omitted), D.Stephens (Omitted)

St Kilda vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 8 FAQ’s

How to watch St Kilda vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 8?

You can watch the St Kilda vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 8 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to St Kilda vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 8?

To buy tickets to the St Kilda vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 8 game check the AFL website or the official St Kilda site.

Verdict

St Kilda's form isn't amazing, North's isn't either but to find value in a game like this we need to dig a bit deeper. Saints have trouble scoring as they are a defensive team. Team Total Under which also leads to the Game Total Under. If you are feeling plucky take the Saints 1-39 or North to cover the big line.
Best Bet1: St Kilda Under 104.5 Team Total @10/11 at PlayUP - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 174.5 Game Total @8/9 at Justbet - 2 Units
Best Bet3: St Kilda 1-39 Winning Margin @5/4 at Elitebet - 1 Unit
St Kilda Under 104.5
Team Total
@10/11 - 3 Units
Bet at PlayUp
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Bet at PlayUP
Under 174.5
Game Total
@8/9 - 2 Units
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Bet at Justbet
St Kilda 1-39
Winning Margin
@5/4 - 1 Unit
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Bet at Elitebet

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