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Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Tips - Saints to show no mercy on injured Tigers

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 06 Apr 2024
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Jeremy Darke 06 Apr 2024
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  • Richmond vs St Kilda expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Norwood Oval, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
  • Richmond's injuries to key players will likely lead to a St Kilda win
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Expired
Jack Steele, St. Kilda
Jack Steele to be heavily involved for the Saints. (Getty Images)

Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Tips


Richmond’s injury list continues to grow and with the loss of Tom Lynch and Noah Balta the Tigers are tipped to go down to St Kilda this week by a hefty margin.
  • Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Richmond Tigers Team News
  • Richmond Tigers Team List
  • St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • St Kilda Team News
  • St Kilda Team List
  • Richmond vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 4 FAQs

The Saints do have their own injury issues and have been inaccurate in front of goal in their two losses this season, however, they showed against Collingwood that if they hit the target they can compete with the best of them. 

The Saints have the defensive capabilities to shut down the running game of Richmond that caught the Swans out last week, which will reduce the attacking output of the Tigers even more than with the injury interruptions in their forward line. 

The likes of Jack Steele and Sebastian Ross should see a lot of ball movement through the middle and if they can hit their targets inside 50, it will give their forwards a chance to improve on their goalkicking. 

I predict that Steele will have 25+ disposals in the game and will lead St. Kilda through the middle of the park laying the platform for a comfortable win on the higher side of 1-39.

Points will be at a premium for Richmond with two of their key men up front missing, which will see the total in the game hitting the under.

  • Richmond’s 3 losses have all been by a margin of 1-39
  • 3 of the past 4 St. Kilda victories over Richmond have been by a margin of 1-39.
  • 5 of 7 games involving Richmond and St. Kilda this season have hit the Under. 
  • Jack Steele averages 26.7 disposals this season.

Head to Head 


Richmond and St Kilda split their 2023 series 1-1. Richmond took a 90-70 win in round 14 and Saints returned serve 93-57 in round 22.

St Kilda has won three of the past four games against Richmond, however, the head to head record is tied at 4-4 since the 2019 season.

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-32-21-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$21-31-30-0

Richmond pulled off a stunning win against the Swans to get their first victory under Adem Yze 11.16 (82) to 11.11 (77). The Tigers got out to a quick start and put solid pressure on the Swans and forced them into mistakes. 

Tim Taranto had 35 disposals linking up with defender Nick Vlastuin who had 29 disposals, moving the ball through the hands which appeared to frustrate the Swans into missed tackles opening up the midfield for the Tigers. 

The win gives Richmond something to build off, as long as they can overcome the long list of injuries that are building up.

Richmond Tigers Team News


Another long-term injury for Tom Lynch will see the forward miss 10 weeks with a hamstring injury. 

Noah Balta was also injured in the Tigers win against the Swans, going down with a medial ligament injury that has him out for 6 weeks.

Jack Graham, Dylan Grimes and Dustin Martin are all a chance to play this week.

Richmond Tigers Team List


B: T.Young, N.Broad, N.Vlastuin
HB: J.Short, T.Brown, D.Rioli
C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, M.Pickett
HF: S.Campbell, R.Mansell, M.Rioli
F: M.Lefau, D.Martin, S.Bolton

FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, T.Dow, J.Ross
I/C (FROM): T.Sonsie, J.Graham, J.Koschitzke, B.Miller, S.Naismith, H.Ralphsmith, K.McAuliffe

IN: D.Martin, J.Graham, J.Koschitzke, S.Naismith, H.Ralphsmith, K.McAuliffe
OUT: N.Balta (Injured), T.Lynch (Injured), L.Baker (Suspension)

St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-22-11-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$51-21-20-0

The Saints couldn’t back up their impressive win against Collingwood with another victory, going down to Essendon in a heartbreaker after leading the whole game until 20 minutes into the final term.

Inaccuracy hurt St. Kilda, just as it did in their opening match of the season against the Cats. The Saints kicked 9.13 (67) in an almost replicer performance against Geelong where they kicked 9.14 (68). 

The positive for the Saints is that their defensive structure is keeping them in games but if they do not find a way to get marks in better positions they will fall in tight matches all season long.

St Kilda Team News


No new injuries for St Kilda after their loss to Essendon. 

Marcus Windhager will miss this round through suspension.

St Kilda Team List


B: J.Battle, Z.Cordy, C.Wilkie
HB: L.Stocker, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera
C: R.Byrnes, S.Ross, B.Hill
HF: J.Higgins, M.Phillipou, M.Owens
F: D.Wilson, M.King, T.Membrey
FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, Z.Jones

I/C (FROM): L.Collard, D.Butler, A.Hastie, H.Garcia, R.Bonner, T.Campbell, A.Caminiti

IN: M.King, L.Collard, H.Garcia, T.Campbell
OUT: M.Windhager (Suspension)

Richmond vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 4 FAQs

How to watch Richmond vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 4?

You can watch the Richmond vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 4 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Richmond vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 4?

To buy tickets to the Richmond vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 4 game check the AFL website or the official Richmond site.

Verdict

Jack Steele will be heavily involved with 25+ disposals as the Saints beat the tigers by a margin of 1-39.
 
The Saints defence is their backbone and will hold the game total under 165.5 points.

Best Bet1: St. Kilda 1-39 Little Win @23/20 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 165.5 Game Total @32/33 at Bet Right - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Jack Steele 25+ Disposals @8/25 at Neds - 4 Units
St. Kilda 1-39
Little Win
@23/20 - 2 Units
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Game Total
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Jack Steele
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