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Richmond vs Melbourne Tips - Dees dominate on Anzac Eve

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 23 Apr 2024
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Jeremy Darke 23 Apr 2024
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  • Richmond vs Melbourne expert predictions for Wednesday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:25 PM (AEST)
  • Melbourne slated to control the game, keeping the score under the game  total
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Melbourne Demons
Max Gawn will want a lift from his men this week. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Richmond vs Melbourne, Round 7 2024 - Expert Prediction


It is becoming one of the finest AFL traditions of the year when the Richmond Tigers face the Melbourne Demons on Anzac Eve. The Demons have dominated the spectacle winning the last three coinciding matches and that streak will be extended in 2024, with Melbourne adding more misery to the tenure of Adem Yze and the Richmond club. 
  • Richmond vs Melbourne, Round 7 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Richmond Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Richmond Team News
  • Richmond Team List
  • Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Team News
  • Melbourne Team List
  • Richmond vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 7 FAQ’s

Both teams are coming off the bye and will be eager to start the next phase of their season on a positive note. However, it will be the Dees that will reap the benefits of the week off after a tough loss to Brisbane, which in my opinion may have helped them with the Lions pointing out some small chinks in the armour which they then had time to work on. 

Richmond on the other hand, do not have chink, more like divots and a week of extra training is not going to help them with the current depth of their squad as they face the facts that a full rebuild is soon required. 

The Demons will get back to their conservative and structured defence and will take advantage of the lack of strength of the Tigers at the stoppages and will play more of this game in the Richmond back-third. Traditionally the Anzac Eve clash has been a battle with both teams lifting to the occasion, however, I can only see the Demons getting up this year covering the hefty line of 27.5 points as the favourite. 

Melbourne will have full control of this game and when their lead is substantial they will strangle the Tigers into submission which will keep the scoring under the game total.

  • Melbourne has won their past 4 games against Richmond.
  • Richmond has lost 5 of their 6 matches this season.
  • Richmond ranks last in the AFL with just 30.2 Total Clearances per game.  
  • 5 of the past 7 games between Melbourne and Richmond have hit the Under Game Total.

Head to Head 


Melbourne kicked 20.10 in a 32 point victory against Richmond last season in round 20, after the Tigers held a 20-point lead mid-way through the third quarter in a tight match where the lead changed five times. Richmond also bombed a 25-point lead in round 6, eventually losing 96-78.

The Dees have now won the past 4 games against the Tigers with Richmonds last win against Melbourne July 5, 2020.

Richmond Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-43-22-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$192-41-50-0

Richmond will come off the bye into round 7 hoping that the week off will help them reset as they chase their second win of the year. Their only victory was against arguably their toughest competition of the season, beating Sydney in round 3. 

In some books, you are only as strong as your last performance and that was a shocker for the Tigers, getting crushed by West Coast 109-70, where they were completely out-enthused by a younger and more hungry side. 

Richmond are getting owned at the stoppages ranked last in the AFL with 30.2 total clearances per game and 20.7 stoppage clearances.

Richmond Team News


Tyler Sonsie, Kane McAuliffe and Jacob Koschitzke have all been omitted with Jayden Short out injured. Dylan Grimes comes back into the run on side with Sam Naismith, Jacob Hopper and Sam Banks all joining the 5 man interchange with one to be used as the sub.

Richmond Team List


B: T. Young, N. Broad, D. Grimes
HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli
C: H. Ralphsmith, J. Graham, M. Pickett
HF: S. Campbell, R. Mansell, M. Rioli
F: M. Lefau, S. Bolton, D. Martin

R: T. Nankvervis (C), L. Baker, T. Dow
I/C: S. Naismith, K. McIntosh, B. Miller, J. Hopper, S. Banks


Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-14-12-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$102-42-22-0

Melbourne played their worst game of the season to date before the bye week going down 82-60 against the Lions. The Demons got pressured by Brisbane which caused too many turnovers and incepted passes. Brisbane played the match inside the Dees’ 50 and shut down the outside forcing Melbourne to play through the middle, which was not all that effective as Brisbane controlled the game from the start really. 

The bye will help Melbourne, who need to find a way to be more effective with the ball in their hand and score points, averaging just 83.33 points per game which is the second-least of any team in the top-eight.

Melbourne Team News


Ben Brown has been dropped after a poor performance last week with Koltyn Tholstrup also omitted. Christian Salem is out injured but Clayton Oliver has managed to overcome finger surgery over the bye, named to start. 

Kysaiah Pickett is back in the half-forward line with Bailey Laurie and Daniel Turner making up the numbers on the bench.

Melbourne Team List


B: T. Rivers, S. May, T. McDonald
HB: B. Howes, J. Lever, J. McVee
C: E. Langford, C. Petracca, J. Billings
HF: K. Chandler, J. Van Rooyen, K. Pickett
F: A. Neal-Bullen, B. Fritsch, H. Petty

R: M. Gawn (C), J. Viney, C. Oliver
I/C: C. Windsor, B. Laurie, T. Sparrow, T. Woewodin, D. Turner

Richmond vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 7 FAQ’s

How to watch Richmond vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 7?


You can watch the Richmond vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 7 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Richmond vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 7?

To buy tickets to the Richmond vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 7 game check the AFL website or the official Richmond site.

Verdict

Melbourne will continue their Anzac Eve dominance of Richmond and get their fourth straight victory, covering the 27.5-point line as favourites.
 
The Demons will shut out the Tigers at the stoppages and will restrict their scoring, which will keep the game total Under.
Best Bet1: Melbourne -27.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at BlueBet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 167.5 Game Total @8/9 at Justbet - 2 Units
Melbourne -27.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Betting Slip | 24 Apr 2024

Richmond v Melbourne