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Richmond vs Essendon Tips - Tigers can’t take a trick at the G as the Bombers predicted to cruise to victory

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Last updated: 23 May 2024
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Ryan Tucker 23 May 2024
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  • Richmond vs Essendon expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
  • Essendon predicted to win by a high margin in Round 11.
  • Richmond has been struggling with heavy losses and injuries.
  • Essendon maintains a 6 game undefeated streak and ranks second on the AFL ladder.
Expired
Andrew McGrath
Andrew McGrath of the Bombers (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Richmond vs Essendon, Round 11 2024 - Expert Prediction


Essendon will show no mercy as they continue the Tigers unhappy 2024 season. 
  • Richmond vs Essendon, Round 11 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Richmond Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Richmond Team News
  • Richmond Team List
  • Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Essendon Team News
  • Essendon Team List
  • Richmond vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 11 FAQ’s

Despite the recent history between these teams, they are at two opposite ends of the competition right now and in radically different form. Of course the Tiges could lift in a game they feel semi-confident in that they know their opponent but it would also entail Essendon to completely capitulate which they have shown no signs of so far this season.

I am predicting a big score here for the Bombers and the margin will again be high in the double figures.

  • Richmond’s average losing margin this season is 47.4 points and 69.2 points in their last 5 games
  • The Bombers have averaged 87.3 points in their undefeated run of 6 games 
  • The Tigers give up the leagues most Uncontested Possessions per game at 243.5
  • Essendon are 3rd in the AFL in Uncontested Possessions averaging 232 per game

Head to Head 


These cross-town rivals have met in 6 games since the beginning of the 2019 season with Richmond holding a 5-1 advantage in the head to head. Essendon did though have the most recent win, a 71-70 victory at the MCG in their Round 10 clash last year.

The Over/Unders are split 3-3 in the last 6 games whilst 5 of the 6 clashes have all finished with Winning Margins of 1-39.

Richmond are 4-2 ATS having gone in as favourites in all 6 games.

Richmond Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
0-50-53-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$594-61-50-4

Well what can we say about Richmond, they beat the Swans in round 3 but have then gone on to lose their next 6 games by an average of 58 points. Last week’s demolition at the hands of the Lions (163-44) was their biggest defeat so far this year and whilst it didn’t make the list of most points conceded by a Tigers team it ranks as the 9th biggest losing margin in their history. 

That game was also off the back of a 91 point hiding at the hands of the Bulldogs. It is safe to say that the Tigers need to get some genuine AFL players back from the injury list and try to find some sort of spark to increase their motivation.

Richmond Team News


Richmond probably have the longest injury list in the league at the moment but there are a number of players that could be back this or next week. Liam Baker, Sam Banks, Jacob Bauer, Seth Campbell and James Tresize could all possibly be in contention for selection if they get through training. 

Jack Graham, Jacob Hopper, Rhyan Mansell and Tim Taranto could see game time as early as next week.

Richmond Team List


B: B.Miller, N.Broad, J.Short
HB: N.Vlastuin, T.Brown, D.Rioli
C: H.Ralphsmith, L.Baker, K.McIntosh
HF: M.Pickett, S.Bolton, T.Sonsie
F: M.Lefau, D.Martin, N.Balta
FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, D.Prestia, T.Dow

I/C: S.Campbell, S.Green, K.McAuliffe, S.Ryan, N.Cumberland
EMG: K.Smith, S.Banks, T.Young

IN: L.Baker, S.Campbell, S.Ryan
OUT: T.Young (Omitted), R.Mansell (Injured), M.Coulthard (Omitted)

Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-13-21-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML
Over/Under
1-39
40+
$553-76-11-1

The Bombers are quietly going about their business and have snuck up to second on the AFL ladder following their thrashing of the Kangaroos last weekend. Essendon haven’t lost a game since round 4 and have a relatively favourable draw over the next month which could possibly see them leading the AFL come the end of June.

Essendon smashed their season average for Inside 50’s last weekend against North Melbourne racking up 63 entries in the game. 

Essendon Team News


Darcy Parish will miss the next few weeks with a calf injury with the timeline expected to be after the Bombers bye in Round 14. Harry Jones is suspended and will miss this weekend while Sam Durham will need to pass a fitness test on his ankle to be up for selection. 

Essendon Team List


B: J.Ridley, B.McKay, J.Laverde
HB: N.Martin, M.Redman, A.McGrath
C: D.Heppell, S.Durham, J.Kelly
HF: J.Gresham, N.Caddy, A.Perkins
F: J.Stringer, P.Wright, K.Langford
FOLL: T.Goldstein, J.Caldwell, Z.Merrett - C

I/C: B.Hobbs, N.Cox, N.Hind, A.Davey Jnr, M.Guelfi
EMG: E.Tsatas, N.Bryan, J.Menzie

IN: J.Ridley, N.Caddy, N.Cox
OUT: E.Tsatas (Omitted), D.Shiel (Omitted), H.Jones (Suspension)

Richmond vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Richmond vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 11?

You can watch the Richmond vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Richmond vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Richmond vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 11 game check the AFL website or the official Richmond site.

Verdict

Essendon will win big and the question is just whether it is under or over 40 points. I am taking over purely on the defensive form of the Tigers who have shown nothing to instill confidence the past few weeks. With a low Game Total there isn't much confidence in the Tigers attack either, take the Under.
Best Bet1: Essendon -40.5 Line @9/10 at Neds - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 165.5 Game Total @9/10 at BlueBet - 2 Units
Essendon -40.5
Line
@9/10 - 2 Units
Take it to the Neds Level
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Bet at Neds
Under 165.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 2 Units
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