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Port Adelaide vs St Kilda Tips - Port to rebound from big loss to etch out gutsy win against the Saints

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Last updated: 25 Apr 2024
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Ryan Tucker 25 Apr 2024
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  • Port Adelaide vs St Kilda expert predictions for Friday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
  • Expert prediction favors a win for Port Adelaide against St Kilda in Round 7 of the AFL 2024.
  • Port Adelaide's superior attacking prowess likely to play a vital role in the game.
  • Port Adelaide and St Kilda's head-to-head record suggests potential dominance by Port Adelaide.
Expired
Travis Boak
Travis Boak is expected to return for the Power against St Kilda (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Port Adelaide vs St Kilda, Round 7 2024 - Expert Prediction


Port Adelaide will recover from their flogging last weekend to put a score on the Saints in Adelaide. 
  • Port Adelaide vs St Kilda, Round 7 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Port Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Port Adelaide Team News
  • Port Adelaide Team List
  • St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • St Kilda Team News
  • St Kilda Team List
  • Port Adelaide vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 7 FAQ’s

Both teams were absolutely blown off the park last weekend with margins of over 40 points in each game. In uncharacteristic displays of footy it was not only the defensive ends that struggled but neither team could move the ball forward with any consistency leading to massive reduction of scoreboard pressure. 

Port Adelaide have been a dominant force for the majority of this young season having put big scores on West Coast, Richmond, Essendon while also having a day out against the Dees in their round 3 loss. Things have just worked on the attacking end of the field for the Power meaning they have been relatively untested in defence. We did see though cracks in the games against Melbourne and Fremantle which again made their appearance in last weekends thrashing at the hands of Collingwood.

St Kilda played their worst game of the season so far in almost all metrics. So much so that we can say that this was probably just a blip on the radar and they throw this out the window and get back to basics in defence and attack moving forward. As we have come to expect with Ross Lyon coached teams the focus is on defence and St Kilda have scored over 70 points in only 2 of their 6 games so far this season. 

The Game Total is set high in this game off the back of defensive lapses from both teams. My prediction is that this one will be a defensive tussle at times but Port will have the ability to kick away in attack enough to keep a healthy buffer but keep the Total Under.

  • Port Adelaide have won 5 of the last 6 games against St Kilda including 4 in a row
  • Port are 2nd in the AFL in Inside 50’s with an average of 58.7 per game
  • St Kilda average only 50.3 forward entries per game ranking them at 13th in the league
  • 4 of the last 5 games between these teams have gone Under the Game Total

Head to Head 


Port Adelaide hold a commanding Head to Head record in recent years over St Kilda. Since 2012 these teams have played 13 times with Port winning 12 including the last 4 in a row. St Kilda’s last win came in round 8 of the 2020 season.

4 of the last 5 games have finished with Winning Margins of between 1-39 points. The Game Total last year went Over but prior to that went Under for 4 straight games.

Port Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-22-33-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$114-22-12-1

Port Adelaide got out to a great start last game against Collingwood leading 39-8 until late in the 1st quarter. It was then pretty much all downhill from there with Collingwood going on to kick 13 goals to 4 up until the 3rd quarter break. The score could have been even more had the Pies been able to kick straight with 21 behinds in the game adding to their 17 goals.

Port couldn’t get their hands on the ball being outpossessed by Collingwood 364-301 in the game. The Power had only 47 Inside 50’s compared to their season average of 58.7 entries per game.

Port Adelaide Team News


The early prognosis is that Travis Boak will return to the team after missing the past two weeks with a back injury. Tom Scully will test his calf closer to game day whilst long lay-offs are expected for Quinton Narkle and Trent McKenzie.

Port Adelaide Team List


B: K.Farrell, E.Ratugolea, B.Zerk-Thatcher
HB: La.Jones, A.Aliir, D.Houston
C: M.Bergman, O.Wines, W.Drew
HF: D.Byrne-Jones, T.Marshall, C.Rozee - C
F: S.Powell-Pepper, C.Dixon, W.Rioli
FOLL: J.Sweet, J.Horne-Francis, Z.Butters

I/C: J.Mead, J.Burgoyne, T.Boak, M.Georgiades, D.Williams
EMG: D.Visentini, F.Evans, T.Clurey

IN: C.Dixon, T.Boak, D.Williams
OUT: R.Burton (Omitted), I.Soldo (Injured), J.McEntee (Omitted)

St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-32-32-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML
Over/Under
1-39
40+
-$222-42-30-1

St Kilda never led in their game against the Bulldogs last weekend having only 19 scoring shots in the match, the same number of Goals their opposition scored. It was the biggest loss for the Saints this season and the first time they have allowed an opponent to score over 80 points in a game.

The Doggies had 16 (12.8) Centre Clearances compared to the Saints 9 (10.8) in a telling statistic compared to season averages. St Kilda took only 4 Contested Marks in the game compared to the Bulldogs 15.

St Kilda Team News


The Injury list is long at the Saints but it is starting to thin out. The early prognosis is that Dan Butler will miss up to a month with a hamstring strain. Max King will need to test his fitness to be cleared to play with Paddy Dow expected to line up this weekend without any complaints. James Van Es is a game time test as is Lance Collard.

St Kilda Team List


B: J.Battle, Z.Cordy, C.Wilkie
HB: D.Howard, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera
C: R.Byrnes, S.Ross, B.Hill
HF: J.Higgins, D.Wilson, C.Sharman
F: M.Phillipou, A.Caminiti, T.Membrey
FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, M.Windhager

I/C: M.Owens, L.Stocker, A.Hastie, H.Garcia, R.Bonner
EMG: L.Collard, J.Hayes, T.Campbell

IN: D.Howard, A.Hastie
OUT: D.Butler (Injured), Z.Jones (Omitted)

Port Adelaide vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 7 FAQ’s

How to watch Port Adelaide vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 7?

You can watch the Port Adelaide vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 7 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Port Adelaide vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 7?

To buy tickets to the Port Adelaide vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 7 game check the AFL website or the official Port Adelaide site.

Verdict

Port Adelaide’s attack and ball movement is just too good for St Kilda to stand up against for the entire game. With such low scoring from the Saints it only takes a couple of goals to get out in front and keep hold of a lead. The picks here are Port 1-39 with the Little Win hitting at 72% so far this year, add to that Game Total to stay Under
Best Bet1: Port Adelaide 1-39 Winning Margin @1/1 at Justbet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 160.5 Game Total @8/9 at Puntnow - 2 Units
Port Adelaide 1-39
Winning Margin
@1/1 - 3 Units
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Under 160.5
Game Total
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Bet at Puntnow

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