2024 AFL Finals Week 1

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Port Adelaide vs Geelong Tips - 3rd Qualifying Final in 5 years between Power and Cats

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 03 Sep 2024

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Ryan Tucker 03 Sep 2024

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Port Adelaide predicted to win Qualifying Final against Geelong at Adelaide Oval.
Geelong's mid-season defense adjustments improved their points conceded per game.
Port Adelaide's dominance in stoppage clearances and Inside 50s will be key factors.

Ryan dives deep into the Port vs Geelong match up to find the top picks!

Port Adelaide vs Geelong, Qaulifying Final 2024 - Expert Prediction

For the 3rd time in 5 years the Port Adelaide Power and Geelong Cats will meet in a Qualifying Final. Port Adelaide will make it three finals victories in a row against Geelong with a small margin at the Adelaide Oval.

Port Adelaide vs Geelong, Qaulifying Final 2024 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Port Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Port Adelaide Team News
Port Adelaide Team List
Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Geelong Team News
Geelong Team List
Port Adelaide vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round Week 1 FAQ’s

Geelong come into week 1 of the Finals boasting the 2nd largest Points Against tally of the top 8 teams at 1928. Their defence was called into question during the middle third of the season where they allowed over 100 points to their opposition in 5 of 8 games. Some adjustments were made and in the last 5 games the average was down to 79 but in Finals footy defence is key. The Cats ranked last in Opposition Clearances including being second last in Stoppage Clearances, both metrics where Port Adelaide are above average.

The Power will look to dominate from the Stoppages then get out and try to strike deep into 50 through Georgiades, Dixon or Horne-Francis. Port will need to make use of their opportunities though, as the lowest scoring team out of all the top 8 they cannot afford to waste the limited chances in front of goal on offer in finals footy.

Geelong allowed 83.82 points per game to their opposition this season, 11th most in the AFL and 2nd most in the top 8.
The Cats give up 40.9 Clearances per game to their opposition, the most of any team in the league.
Port Adelaide took the most Marks Inside 50 of any team this year, averaging 13.7 per game.
The Power averaged 65.5 Tackles per game this season, the most of any team in the AFL.

Head to Head

Port Adelaide and Geelong have met in 8 regular season games as well as two finals matches since the beginning of the 2019 season. Port have won only 3 of 8 regular season games but have managed to defeat the Cats in both Qualifying Finals matchups in 2020 and 2021 while also covering the line in both matchups.

The teams played in Round 9 earlier this season with Port Adelaide taking the chocolates on the road at GMHBA Stadium 101-95.

The Game Total went under in both previous Finals matchups but in only 3 of the other 8 games played through this period. The Over has hit in the last 4 consecutive games.

Port Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	4-1	1-4

2024 Betting Trends

$10 ML	Over/Under	1-39	40+
$40	10-13	10-5	6-2

Port Adelaide solidified themselves as contenders in the back half of the season winning 8 of their last 9 regular season games, including 6 in a row to round out the year. Their biggest achievement in that period was putting 148 points on the Minor Premiers Sydney in one of the most shocking games of the year.

Port were a top 5 team for Inside 50’s, Shots at Goal, Tackles and Hit Outs to Advantage during the year. Their weakness this season was most definitely Accuracy in front of the sticks which thankfully for their fans didn’t result in too many losses. The Power also were the team that conceded the 3rd most Free Kicks per game.

Port Adelaide Team News

Kane Farrell injured his hamstring in the last round of the season and will not play again this year. Dan Houston's suspension will keep him out for the remainder of the finals, even if Port make the big dance. Todd Marshall is progressing well in concussion protocols and will be tested closer to match day.

Port Adelaide Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	3-2

2024 Betting Trends

$10 ML	Over/Under	1-39	40+
$28	13-10	10-5	5-3

The Geelong season was bookended by some class performances from the playing group. 7-0 to start the year was followed by 1-6 with a number of pundits claiming the Cats were done for. But they managed to turn things around and finished strongly going 7-2 to finish the year and cement themselves in the top 4 once again.

Interestingly the Cats had the worst Disposal Efficiency of any team in the league but still managed the highest number of Metres Gained per match. That coupled with being top 2 in Contested Possessions and Centre Clearances meant teams were outmatched across key areas of the park through the season.

Geelong Team News

Tom De Koning, Tom Stewart and Lawson Humphries are all expected to be available for the Cats in their first finals matchup. Tom Hawkins could return through the VFL this weekend and will likely feature if Geelong can make a deep finals run.

Geelong Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Port Adelaide vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round Week 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Port Adelaide vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round Week 1?

You can watch the Port Adelaide vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round Week 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Port Adelaide vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round Week 1?

To buy tickets to the Port Adelaide vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round Week 1 game check the AFL website or the official Port Adelaide site.

Verdict

Port Adelaide v Geelong

Port Adelaide will take this one and progress to within one win of the Grand Final.

Port Adelaide 1-39

Winning Margin

$2.05 - 2 Units

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Game Total

$1.88 - 2 Units

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