AFL
  • Home
  • AFL

Melbourne vs St Kilda Tips - Dees put Saints finals hopes up in flames

ryan-tucker
Editor
Last updated: 23 May 2024
Ryan Tucker 23 May 2024
Share this article
Or copy link
  • Melbourne vs St Kilda expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
  • Melbourne is experiencing a form slump but is expected to break it with a win over St Kilda.
  • St Kilda’s restrictive defensive strategy hasn’t been effective, leading to a worse slump.
  • Key metrics show low-scoring trends and narrow winning margins between these teams, supporting Melbourne’s chances.
Expired
Christian Petracca
Christian Petracca of the Demons will look to improve his form against the Saints (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Melbourne vs St Kilda, Round 11 2024 - Expert Prediction


Melbourne are in a form slump, there is no ifs, buts or maybes. The positive for them is that St Kilda is in a bigger slump. The Dees will break their losing streak with a comfortable win at the G.
  • Melbourne vs St Kilda, Round 11 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Team News
  • Melbourne Team List
  • St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • St Kilda Team News
  • St Kilda Team List
  • Melbourne vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 11 FAQ’s

St Kilda are a defensive minded team that have effectively put all their eggs in the one basket in trying to restrict teams from scoring to win games, it isn’t going to plan and the game plan is falling apart. 

Melbourne on the other hand have just been a little inconsistent over their last month of footy and it is the perfect situation for them to bounce back with a convincing win over the Saints.

  • Melbourne score 37.3 points per game from Stoppages, 4th in the AFL. St Kilda rank 2nd last in the league in the same metric.
  • The average Winning Margin between these teams since 2019 is 23 points
  • The Under has hit in 5 of the last 6 games between these teams.
  • A combined 16 of 20 games played for these teams this season have resulted in Winning Margins of between 1-39 points 

Head to Head 


These teams have played 6 times since the beginning of the 2019 season. Melbourne have won the last 4 games in a row with St Kilda winning the two preceding. 

Each winning team has covered the line across those 6 games with the Under hitting in 5 of 6 and the last 4 straight.

The Winning Margin has been 1-39 in the last 5 games in a row. The remaining game in this period finished with exactly 40 point margin. 

Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-32-31-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$23-73-43-0

Narrm are on a two game slide with last weekend’s match against the Eagles finishing with a 35 point losing margin. The Dees never led in the game against their 16th placed opposition in an uncharacteristic defensive display for a team that had allowed the second fewest points in the league heading into the round. 

Melbourne were way down on their overall Disposal Efficiency which saw them take less Marks and restrict their opportunities to get the ball forward. Their opposition mounted a lot of pressure in the forward 50 with the Demons being tackled 22 times within scoring range. 

Melbourne Team News


It is now confirmed Jake Lever will miss over a month following surgery on his knee, this will hopefully ensure he is right to go come September when the team needs him most. 

Jacob van Rooyen will need to pass final concussion tests to be able to play with Jake Bowey needing to get through training on his ankle to be up for selection.

Melbourne Team List


B: J.Bowey, S.May, T.Rivers
HB: J.McVee, T.McDonald, C.Salem
C: E.Langdon, C.Oliver, C.Windsor
HF: A.Neal-Bullen, H.Petty, K.Pickett
F: K.Chandler, B.Fritsch, S.McAdam
FOLL: M.Gawn - C, J.Viney, C.Petracca

I/C (FROM): J.van Rooyen, L.Hunter, J.Billings, A.Tomlinson, B.Howes, T.Fullarton, T.Woewodin

IN: E.Langdon, J.van Rooyen, L.Hunter, A.Tomlinson, T.Fullarton
OUT: J.Lever (Injured), B.Brown (Omitted)

St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-42-31-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$492-83-60-1

Euro-Yroke faltered last weekend against the Dockers losing their 5th game in 6 matches. They now sit 14th on the ladder with only 3 wins on the season that is slipping out of their grasp at an alarming rate.

The Saints reached only 33.3% Efficiency Inside 50 last weekend against Walyalup while also allowing their opponent 42 Stoppage Clearances. The score finished with a 17 point margin but only due to the Dockers inaccuracy in front of goal.

St Kilda Team News


The Saints have one of the shortest injury lists in the league with only 2 players named. Arie Schoenmaker has missed a couple of weeks with concussion but should be right to go this week, James Van Es will miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury.

Dan Butler will return following a chunk of time on the sidelines with a hammy. 

St Kilda Team List


B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie
HB: J.Webster, L.Stocker, N.Wanganeen-Milera
C: R.Byrnes, J.Sinclair, M.Wood
HF: D.Wilson, B.Hill, L.Henry
F: J.Higgins, M.King, A.Caminiti
FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, M.Windhager

I/C (FROM): Z.Jones, L.Collard, S.Ross, M.Owens, P.Dow, R.Bonner, C.Sharman

IN: L.Stocker, R.Byrnes, J.Higgins, S.Ross
OUT: M.Phillipou (Omitted)

Melbourne vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 11?

You can watch the Melbourne vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 11 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne site.

Verdict

Melbourne are not at their best right now so to think that this game will result in a blowout is maybe a bit too farfetched. But a win is a win and St Kilda are just in trouble at the moment. Melbourne with a small margin and Saints with a low total bringing the Game Total Under.
Best Bet1: Melbourne 1-39 Winning Margin @1/1 at bet365 Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 153.5 Game Total @9/10 at PlayUP - 2 Units
Melbourne 1-39
Winning Margin
@1/1 - 2 Units
Referral Code BESTBETS
Great odds on Australian racing

Our bet365.com.au referral code is BESTBETS. bet365 does not offer bonus codes in Australia and this referral code does not grant access to offers but can be used during registration. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Imagine what you could be buying instead.Call Gambler's Help; National Gambling Helpline: 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au 18+

Bet at bet365 Australia
Under 153.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 2 Units
Bet at PlayUp
Your Best Bet - Proudly Australian

18+ only. Gamble Responsibly. Ts and Cs apply.

Bet at PlayUP

Top Betting Sites

special-offer-1Betting offers

Upcoming Events

20 July 2024

  • 2024 Supercars Sydney SuperNight
  • -
  • Motor Sport
  • Roughie Tips - July 20
  • -
  • Horse Racing
Load More
Betting Slip | 26 May 2024

Melbourne v St Kilda