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Melbourne vs North Melbourne Tips - North predicted to cover large line in a heated Melbourne derby

Last updated: 20 Jun 2024
Ryan Tucker 20 Jun 2024
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  • Melbourne vs North Melbourne expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
  • North Melbourne have shown better form and momentum recently compared to Demons.
  • Melbourne have lost key player Christian Petracca and have struggled in recent games.
  • Expert predicts North Melbourne covers the 31-point headstart in Round 15 clash.
Ryan gives his best tips for all three Saturday AFL games.

Melbourne vs North Melbourne, Round 15 2024 - Expert Prediction

How much attention do we pay to recency bias? In this case I am paying ALL the attention. North will cover with a massive headstart this Saturday.
  • Melbourne vs North Melbourne, Round 15 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Team News
  • Melbourne Team List
  • North Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • North Melbourne Team News
  • North Melbourne Team List
  • Melbourne vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 15 FAQ’s

The rut that the Demons are currently in isn’t something that can just be fixed overnight, especially now one of their best players in Christian Petracca is out for the season. The midfield and backs have been punished out on the track the past two games and will be under immense pressure to perform against the team with only 1 win.

The Kangaroos have the opportunity to see their game against Collingwood in a positive light and take that scoring momentum into this one, or they have the chance to second guess themselves and crumble under their own expectations. 

My prediction is that there will be a bit of both and considering we are being offered 31 points to back the Kangaroos we are backing recent trends to get us home.

  • North Melbourne are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games.
  • The Demons are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games.
  • The Kangaroos are the most Accurate team in front of Goal this season kicking at 55.6%
  • Melbourne are 14th in the league in Opposition Centre Clerances allowing 12.3 per game.

Head to Head 

These two teams have met on 6 occasions since the beginning of the 2019 season with Melbourne winning the last 5 straight.

All 5 of the Demons wins have been by 30 or more points with the Round 7 game last year finishing with a Margin of 90 points. 

5 of the last 6 games have gone Over the Game Total whilst the ATS record stands at 3-3 for both teams.

Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+

The Demons have hit a rough patch being totally outclassed in their last two games against Fremantle and Collingwood. They were also humiliated recently by the West Coast Eagles in a stark turnaround from their early season form which saw them take 6 wins from their first 8 games. 

In their last two, Melbourne have scored 49 and 51 points respectively in an attacking effort that likens Ressies on a Sunday afternoon. But their forwards aren’t all to blame as the ball in both matches has hardly been in the forward half. The midfielders and backs have totally lost their way and it will be up to Coach Simon Goodwin to try and right the ship asap!

Melbourne Team News

The biggest news out of the Dees camp is that Christian Petracca is set to miss the rest of the season with a rib/spleen injury suffered in Melbourne’s loss to Collingwood in Round 13. 

Jake Lever was hopeful to return from a knee injury but still has a week or two of rehab to go.

Melbourne Team List

B: B.Howes, S.May, T.Rivers
HB: C.Salem, A.Tomlinson, J.McVee
C: A.Neal-Bullen, C.Oliver, C.Windsor
HF: K.Chandler, H.Petty, J.van Rooyen
F: K.Pickett, B.Fritsch, E.Langdon
FOLL: M.Gawn - C, J.Viney, T.Sparrow

I/C: J.Bowey, T.McDonald, K.Tholstrup, K.Brown, D.Turner

EMG: B.Laurie, T.Fullarton, T.Woewodin

IN: A.Tomlinson, K.Tholstrup, K.Brown
OUT: C.Petracca (Injured), J.Billings (Omitted), B.Laurie (Omitted)

North Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U

2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML

North Melbourne were all but home after half-time of last week's game against the defending premiers Collingwood. A 54 point lead early in the 3rd was totally erased with just minutes remaining on the clock and the Pies with all the momentum. The umps put their whistles away in the last 2 and North just couldn’t get back a major to win.

On the positive side for the Kangaroos they smashed their season averages of Disposals, Inside 50’s and Inside 50 Efficiency showing that on their day they can match it with the best of them. 

North Melbourne Team News

Brayden George will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury but the club will finally see Griffin Logue return through the VFL. 

Colby McKercher is also expected to lace up the boots with Jy Simpkin to test his fitness later in the week.

North Melbourne Team List

B: A.Corr, C.Comben, T.Pink
HB: J.Archer, H.Sheezel, L.McDonald
C: D.Stephens, L.Davies-Uniacke, B.Scott
HF: T.Powell, B.Teakle, E.Ford
F: P.Curtis, N.Larkey, C.Zurhaar
FOLL: T.Xerri, G.Wardlaw, J.Simpkin - C

I/C: C.Taylor, D.Tucker, L.Shiels, Z.Fisher, W.Phillips

EMG: Z.Duursma, R.Hardeman, C.Harvey

IN: D.Stephens, J.Simpkin
OUT: J.Stephenson (Omitted), K.Dawson (Suspension)

Melbourne vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 15 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 15?

You can watch the Melbourne vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 15 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 15?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 15 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne site.


North Melbourne have shown form over the past month whilst the Demons have shown the reverse. They are now without one of their best players in the middle where the majority of struggles have been. The Kangaroos aren't suddenly a great team but a bit of form and momentum coupled with a big line is too enticing!
Best Bet1: North Melbourne +32.5 Line @9/10 at Boombet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 170.5 Game Total @9/10 at dabble - 2 Units
North Melbourne +32.5
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Betting Slip | 22 Jun 2024

Melbourne v North Melbourne