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Melbourne vs Geelong Tips - Melbourne hand Geelong their first loss of the 2024 AFL season

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 02 May 2024
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Jeremy Darke 02 May 2024
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  • Melbourne vs Geelong expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
  • contested possessions likely to determine this 1st vs 4th battle.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Max Gawn
Max Gawn having a career-best season in his 14th year in the AFL. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Melbourne vs Geelong, Round 8 2024 - Expert Prediction


Melbourne will put an end to Geelong’s unbeaten run to start the season, locking them out of their forward 50 and restricting their chances on goal, winning this match in a real fight for contested possessions. 
  • Melbourne vs Geelong, Round 8 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Team News
  • Melbourne Team List
  • Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Geelong Team News
  • Geelong Team List
  • Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 8 FAQ’s

Geelong are the surprise leaders of the AFL and continue to get wins, however, their first victory over a top-eight team was last weekend against Carlton. Taking nothing away from the Cats, who have done everything ask of them, they will now find it difficult to break the stingiest defence in the AFL. The Dees conceded just 66.28 points a game and will shut down geelong and force them to play into contested situations where they are less comfortable. 

The Dees will keep this match low-scoring and go Under the 164.5-point game total, which plays best into their own hands to snatch a victory as the underdog. 

  • Melbourne have won 3 of 4 games at the MCG this season.
  • 5 of the past 6 games between Melbourne and Geelong have had a game total of Under 164.5 points.
  • 4 of the past 5 Melbourne games have gone Under the Game Total.
  • Max Gawn has kicked a goal in 3 of his past 4 games.

Head to Head 


Geelong has had Melbourne’s number over the last couple of years beating them 91-63 in 2022 and 78-63 in round 15 last season, with both games being played at GMHBA Stadium.

The Cats hold the upper hand in the head to head battle since 2019 with a slim 4-3 record.

Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-14-11-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$112-52-23-0

Melbourne have had an impressive start to the year with a 5-2 record, returning after their bye-week with a rebound performance, thrashing the Tigers 85-42 on Anzac Eve after losing to the Lions disappointingly before the break.

No team has conceded less points than the Melbourne Demons this season, who allow their opposition an average of just 66.28 points per game. The Dees back-three has been a force with Steven May, Tom McDonald and Trent Rivers putting up a wall making it difficult for their opposition to get any clean ball.

Max Gawn is also having his career-best year with higher average numbers in Disposals (19.7), Marks (6.1), Tackles (3.9), Clearances(5.1) and Kicks (12.6) than he has had in his past 13 seasons at the club. 

Melbourne Team News


No new injury concerns this week for Melbourne. Jake Bowey is on track for a return next week while Christian Salem and Charlie Spargo are still 3-4 weeks away.

Melbourne Team List


B: B.Howes, S.May, J.Lever
HB: J.McVee, T.McDonald, T.Sparrow
C: A.Neal-Bullen, C.Petracca, C.Windsor
HF: J.Billings, B.Fritsch, K.Chandler
F: K.Pickett, J.van Rooyen, D.Turner
FOLL: M.Gawn - C, J.Viney, C.Oliver

I/C: E.Langdon, B.Laurie, T.Rivers, H.Petty, T.Woewodin
EMG: L.Hunter, M.Hore, B.Brown

No changes

Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
5-05-04-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$594-36-01-0

Geelong continue to impress as the only unbeaten team left in the AFL after another tough win last week against Carlton, coming out on top against the Blues 18.10 (118) - 15.15 (105).

The Cats were in control of the match from the outset, maintaining the lead from the 6th minute of the match, kicking out to a 33-point lead in the fourth quarter before Carlton kicked four straight goals to make the score a little more respectable. 

Geelong's midfield stole the show once again in the game against the Blues maintaining their season’s form as one of the best at the stoppages and getting clean ball out. The Cats have been a menace all season picking off their opponents averaging 74.4 intercepts, which is second-best in the AFL.

Geelong Team News


Tom Stewart is expected to be cleared from concussion protocol and play on Saturday. 

The bad news is that Patrick Dangerfield has reinjured his hamstring and will miss up to six weeks.

Geelong Team List


B: J.Henry, S.De Koning, J.Kolodjashnij
HB: Z.Guthrie, T.Stewart - C, M.Holmes
C: Z.Tuohy, T.Atkins, M.Blicavs
HF: B.Close, J.Cameron, G.Miers
F: T.Stengle, T.Hawkins, O.Henry
FOLL: R.Stanley, C.Guthrie, T.Bruhn

I/C: O.Dempsey, M.Duncan, J.Bowes, G.Rohan, J.Clark
EMG: M.O’Connor, B.Parfitt, S.Neale

IN: T.Stewart, G.Rohan, J.Clark
OUT: M.O’Connor (Managed), P.Dangerfield (Injured), B.Parfitt (Managed)

Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 8 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 8?

You can watch the Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 8 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 8?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 8 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne site.

Verdict

The Dees defence will be the cornerstone to their victory, keeping the total Under 164.5 points. Max Gawn is on a little run and is worth getting on for a cheeky goal.
Best Bet1: Melbourne Demons Money Line @1/1 at PlayUP - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 154.5 Game Total @10/11 at Topsport - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Max Gawn 1+ Goal @5/4 at Justbet - 1 Unit
Melbourne Demons
Money Line
@1/1 - 2 Units
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Under 154.5
Game Total
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Betting Slip | 04 May 2024

Melbourne v Geelong