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Melbourne vs Essendon Tips - Tight margin predicted in clash of the Titans

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Last updated: 11 Jul 2024
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Ryan Tucker 11 Jul 2024
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  • Melbourne vs Essendon expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
  • Essendon favored to win against Melbourne in Round 18, strengthening their top 4 position.
  • Key player absence (Max Gawn) weakens Melbourne's middle, tipping the balance to Essendon.
  • Expect a closely fought game with Essendon likely winning by a margin of 1-39 points.
Ryan's best picks for the late Saturday slate in the AFL

Melbourne vs Essendon, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction


Essendon are predicted to consolidate their top 4 position with a win over the Dees this Saturday night. 
  • Melbourne vs Essendon, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Team News
  • Melbourne Team List
  • Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Essendon Team News
  • Essendon Team List
  • Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

The Bombers took a close win over the defending premiers last weekend in a nailbiter and have momentum coming into this clash with Melbourne. The Demons have lost their all-star ruckman in Max Gawn and those shoes are just too big to fill for anybody in this team. 

Essendon are 2nd in the league in Uncontested Possessions and average around 7 more Inside 50’s per game than Melbourne this season. The prediction is that they will utilise their ball movement and Handball Efficiency to get through and around the Melbourne defence who have struggled at times this season to contain the run. 

As usual between these teams the margin will remain tight all the way to the end so I am backing the Bombers to take the victory by 1-39.

  • Essendon average 238.4 Uncontested Possessions per game this season, 2nd most in the league
  • 5 of the 6 Demons losses this season have been by 1-39 points.
  • The Bombers boast a Handball Efficiency rate of 83.9%, 2nd best in the AFL
  • Melbourne are 9-6 to the Over this year and Essendon’s last 5 in a row have all gone Over the Game Total

Head to Head 


Despite both being Melbourne teams these two clubs have only met once per year since the beginning of the 2019 season. The Demons hold a 3-2 advantage in the Head to Head but it was Essendon who had the most recent success with a 104-77 victory last season. 

3 of the last 5 games have gone Over the Game Total with all 5 of the most recent matchups staying within the 1-39 Winning Margin, the biggest margin being 29. 

Essendon have a 3-2 ATS record in the last 5 games going into each game as the Underdog.

Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-32-32-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$206-105-64-1

Melbourne were finally able to stretch their legs a bit last weekend against the Eagles after coming off two games with single digit margins.

The Dees led from start to finish in last weekend’s game almost doubling their season average for Marks Inside 50 while topping with an Inside 50 Efficiency Rate of 57.1%, almost 10% more than their season average. They also held their opponent to the second lowest opposition total of the season in a testament to the their defensive pressure.

Melbourne Team News


Another big blow for the Demons with star Ruck Max Gawn expected to be out for 2-3 weeks with a chipped fibula. Ben Brown could return this weekend from a knee injury but will need to get through training, same deal for Harrison Petty as he looks to return from a hammy. 

Melbourne Team List


B: T.McDonald, S.May, J.McVee
HB: T.Rivers, J.Lever, J.Bowey
C: E.Langdon, C.Oliver, A.Neal-Bullen
HF: K.Pickett, J.van Rooyen, T.Sparrow
F: K.Chandler, B.Fritsch, J.Melksham
FOLL: H.Petty, J.Viney - C, C.Salem

I/C: C.Windsor, K.Tholstrup, T.Woewodin, D.Turner, A.Moniz-Wakefield
EMG: B.Laurie, A.Tomlinson, T.Fullarton

IN: H.Petty
OUT: M.Gawn (Injured)

Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-31-45-0

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$428-89-31-2

Essendon put up a good showing last weekend against the defending premiers to take a 12 point victory 92-80. The biggest difference between that game and the loss the previous week to Geelong was the Efficiency Inside 50. In the loss they recorded a 31.7% rate compared to 58.3% in their most recent win. 

They also recorded 80 more Uncontested Possessions against the Pies in a game where they dominated possession. 

Essendon Team News


No new major injury news for the Bombers following their win over Collingwood last weekend. Darcy Parish is progressing from a calf injury and could be back in 2 weeks time.

Essendon Team List


B: J.Ridley, B.McKay, D.Heppell
HB: N.Martin, M.Redman, A.McGrath
C: X.Duursma, S.Durham, A.Perkins
HF: M.Guelfi, H.Jones, N.Caddy
F: J.Stringer, P.Wright, K.Langford
FOLL: S.Draper, J.Caldwell, Z.Merrett - C

I/C: D.Shiel, J.Gresham, N.Cox, N.Hind, J.Kelly
EMG: W.Setterfield, J.Laverde, T.Goldstein

IN: D.Heppell
OUT: J.Laverde (Managed)

Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 18?

You can watch the Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne vs Essendon AFL 2024 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne site.

Verdict

With Gawn out for Melbourne it is going to be a struggle for them in the middle against an efficient Bombers outfit. Essendon to get the win by a small margin, expect some firecrackers!
Best Bet1: Essendon 1-39 Winning Margin @21/20 at bet365 Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 163.5 Game Total @7/8 at PlayUP - 2 Units
Essendon 1-39
Winning Margin
@21/20 - 2 Units
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Game Total
@7/8 - 2 Units
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Betting Slip | 13 Jul 2024

Melbourne v Essendon