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Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions Tips - Brisbane cover in tight battle with Melbourne

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 10 Apr 2024
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Jeremy Darke 10 Apr 2024
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  • Melbourne vs Brisbane expert predictions for Thursday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
  • Can Brisbane fix their shooting efficiency against Melbourne?
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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AFL Brisbane Lions, Melbourne Demons
A real tussle expected at the G on Thursday. (Getty Images)

Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction


The Brisbane Lions will be looking to build on their first win of the season, but they come up against the Melbourne Demons who are stop them in their tracks this week. The Dees can stay perfect since their opening round loss, although Brisbane are likely to cover the large line as the dog. 
  • Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Team News
  • Melbourne Team List
  • Brisbane Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Brisbane Team News
  • Brisbane Team List
  • Melbourne vs Brisbane AFL 2024 Round 5 FAQs

The Demons have played very controlled and methodical footy this season and have been getting the results to show for it. The Dees have been tough to break down at the back with the back-four picking off their opponent and forcing them to play the entries that they want them to play. 

The Brisbane that we have seen so far in 2024 are going to have the same problems against Melbourne, as the Demons will wear them down and then attack at their opportune moments. 

I expect a close game though as the past few contests between the Demons and the Lions have been. The score will likely be on the lighter side which has me leaning towards Brisbane to cover the fairly hefty 15.5-point line they are presented as the underdog.

The game total has been set at 166.5 at most books and our models suggest that this result will go Under. The likelihood is due to the stern Melbourne defence and once again the inaccuracy of Brisbane shooting at goal. 

  • The winning margin in the past three contests between Brisbane and Melbourne has been by 13 points or less.
  • Brisbane have  kicked just 48 goals and 51 Behind in total this season.
  • Melbourne are averaging just 68 points against in their 5 matches this season.
  • 3 of 4 Brisbane games have gone Under the game total this season.

Head to Head 


Melbourne and Brisbane shared the spoils last season with both teams getting a home win. Brisbane won the round 2 clash 93-82, while Melbourne returned the favour by coming back from 28 points down in the third quarter to beat Brisbane 105-104, kicking four goals in the final seven minutes.

Melbourne have had the better run over Brisbane in recent years, winning five of their past seven matches against the Lions since 2021. 

Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-14-12-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$202-32-12-0

Melbourne put in a gritty performance against Adelaide to open Gather Round, beating the Crows by 15 points to seal their fourth consecutive win. 

Melbourne didn’t have it all their way early but their persistence and all-round dominance began to pay off once they started to hit the target at Adelaide Oval as the Demons needed to overcome the 18 behinds from their 28 scoring shots. 

Melbourne have been near perfect since their loss in opening round to the Sydney Swans. Defensively they rarely take a step wrong and a Christian Petracca and Max Gawn midfield has them winning more often than not at the stoppages.

Melbourne Team News


Daniel Turner has been given the knod this week after being out for the past six weeks with a hip injury.

Melbourne Team List


B: T.Rivers, S.May, T.McDonald
HB: B.Howes, J.Lever, J.McVee
C: E.Langdon, C.Petracca, A.Neal-Bullen
HF: J.Billings, H.Petty, K.Tholstrup
F: J.van Rooyen, B.Fritsch, T.Sparrow
FOLL: M.Gawn - C, J.Viney, C.Oliver

I/C: C.Salem, C.Windsor, K.Chandler, T.Woewodin, B.Brown
EMG: B.Laurie, J.Schache, A.Tomlinson

IN: K.Tholstup
OUT: K.Pickett (suspended)

Brisbane Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-31-31-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$291-30-31-0

Brisbane finally got their 2024 tally started with a 112-42 win over North Melbourne last Friday at Norwood Oval. 

Joe Daniher kicked 5 goals to lead the onslaught from the Lions, who never looked phased and continued their early domination after going into the long break leading by 56 points. 

Brisbane will be hoping that their first win of the season will help them turn things around from their 1-3 start to the 2024 season. 

Despite Brisbane’s first win they were still incredibly inefficient in front of goal and are now ranked as the fifth-worst team in the AFL with a 43.3 shot efficiency. 

Brisbane Team News


Both Lachie Neale (ankle) and forward Zac Bailey (ankle) have been cleared to play in Thursday night's cölash with Melbourne.

Brisbane Team List


B: B.Starcevich, J.Payne, R.Lester
HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews - C, D.Gardiner
C: J.Fletcher, Z.Bailey, J.Berry
HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, H.McCluggage
F: C.Rayner, J.Daniher, D.Zorko
FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale

I/C: K.Lohmann, C.Ah Chee, L.McCarthy, J.Tunstill, N.Answerth
EMG: L.Morris, J.Lyons, D.Fort

No changes

Melbourne vs Brisbane AFL 2024 Round 5 FAQs

How to watch Melbourne vs Brisbane AFL 2024 Round 5?

You can watch the Melbourne vs Brisbane AFL 2024 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne vs Brisbane AFL 2024 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne vs Brisbane AFL 2024 Round 5 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne site.

Verdict

Having a punt head to head I would give this game to the Dees, however, Brisbane will keep this game close and they will cover the 15.5-point line.
 
The Demons have controlled their oppositions scoring this season and will do it again against Brisbane which will keep this total towards the Under.

Best Bet1: Brisbane +15.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at Puntnow - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 166.5 Game Total @20/21 at betM - 2 Units
Brisbane +15.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Under 166.5
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