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Hawthorn vs Adelaide Tips - Hawks on the hunt for their fifth win

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 30 May 2024
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Jeremy Darke 30 May 2024
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  • Hawthorn vs Adelaide expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 1:45 PM (AEST)
  • Adelaide's poor MCG record and Hawthorn's strong forward-play tactics highlighted.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Dylan Moore
Dylan Moore proving to be instrumental for the Hawks. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Hawthorn vs Adelaide, Round 12 2024 - Expert Prediction


The young Hawks are soaring at the moment and they will continue to circle the top-eight when they get their fifth win of the season against Adelaide.
  • Hawthorn vs Adelaide, Round 12 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Hawthorn Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Hawthorn Team News
  • Hawthorn Team List
  • Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Adelaide Team News
  • Adelaide Team List
  • Hawthorn vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 12 FAQ’s

The Crows have a horrendous record at the MCG, winless at the iconic ground since 2017 and Hawthorn will swoop and continue their hot form that has seen them win four of their past 6 matches and even pushing third-placed Port to the final moments of the game. 

The Hawks are not holding back and are playing for heavy ball inside 50 pushing up their halfback line and connecting deep with their half forwards. This tactic will trouble the Crows and we will see the Hawks put up decent points so Adelaide will be forced to try and create their own pressure, moving the ball through their midfield, which hasn’t been their strongest attribute in 20224.

Hawthorn will be in this match and could very well upset the Crows as they did Brisbane last week.

  • Adelaide have not won at the MCG in 10 matches.
  • Hawthorn have won 4 of 5 games against bottom-ten teams this season.
  • The Hawks have scored over 80 points in 3 of their 4 victories this season.
  • Hawthorn have scored an average of 86.75 points in their past 4 games against Adelaide.

Head to Head 


The Hawks and Crows have gone one-for-one over the past 5 seasons, each winning every second game for a total of three wins each.

The pair played in Round 6 last season at UTAS Stadium with the Crows getting up 79-76. The last time they played in Melbourne in Round 17, 2022, the Hawks got up by 32 points.

Hawthorn Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-24-12-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$06-53-41-3

The Hawks are slowly becoming one of the surprise packets of the 2024. After losing 5 games to open the season, four of which were against current top-eight teams, Hawthorn have gone four from six losing only to Sydney comfortably and having a 41-point lead against Port before blowing it in the final quarter. 

The Hawks are a young energetic side that have shown a lot of promise and they paid off last week against Brisbane where they did not make the same mistake as they did against the Power and kept the aggression and forward-pressure throughout the whole match instead of being sitting ducks.

Conor Nash is playing high in the midfield from the fullback position and half-forwards Dylan Moore and Connor Macdonald are playing the whole way through the midfield, while also moving deep into their attacking 50.

Hawthorn Team News


Loyd Meek is under an injury cloud after the ruckman suffered an ankle injury in the Hawks win against the Lions.

Nick Watson will be available, recovering from hamstring tightness, although Mitch Lewis's timeline is still uncertain.

Hawthorn Team List


B: J.Impey, S.Frost, C.Jiath
HB: K.Amon, J.Sicily - C, W.Day
C: J.Scrimshaw, C.Nash, J.Weddle
HF: L.Breust, D.Moore, C.Dear
F: J.Gunston, B.Hardwick, M.Chol
FOLL: N.Reeves, J.Newcombe, C.Mackenzie

I/C: S.Mitchell, M.D’Ambrosio, J.Worpel, C.Macdonald, J.Ginnivan
EMG: E.Phillips, M.Ramsden, F.Maginness

IN: N.Reeves
OUT: L.Meek (Injured)

Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-24-13-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$274-72-62-0

The Crows certainly got things firing and had no problem filling the goal-kicking boots in the absence of Izak Rankine last week against the Eagles, kicking 21 goals and 32 scoring shots in their 137-38 victory over West Coast.

Six Crows kicked multiple goals in the match with Chayce Jones the only Adelaide player to kick 3 goals. The real positive was Adelaide’s ability to control the stoppages owning the hit outs 45-23 and being strong in centre winning the clearances 14-11.

The ship in Adelaide looks to be settling after a mediocre start to the season that has not reached the expectations. Matthew Nicks needs to get some more consistency from his men and that task will start this week as the Crows try to put together consecutive wins for just the second time this season.

Adelaide Team News


Elliott Himmelberg will be out a longer period after getting surgery on his cheekbone. Izak Rankine is also a couple of weeks away with a hamstring injury.

Adelaide Team List


B: B.Smith, J.Butts, C.Jones
HB: J.Borlase, M.Keane, M.Michalanney
C: M.Hinge, J.Soligo, J.Dawson - C
HF: L.Sholl, T.Walker, J.Rachele
F: C.Burgess, D.Fogarty, B.Keays
FOLL: R.O’Brien, M.Crouch, H.Schoenberg

I/C: R.Laird, S.Berry, L.Nankervis, B.Cook, L.Murphy
EMG: W.Hamill, N.McHenry, K.Strachan

No changes

Hawthorn vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 12 FAQ’s

How to watch Hawthorn vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 12?

You can watch the Hawthorn vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 12 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Hawthorn vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 12?

To buy tickets to the Hawthorn vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 12 game check the AFL website or the official Hawthorn site.

Verdict

Hawthorn will put up a fight and cover the 6.5 points as the underdog while kicking over 80.5 points against the Crows.
Best Bet1: Hawthorn +6.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at PlayUP - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Hawthorn Over 80.5 Team Total @10/11 at Bet Right - 2 Units
Hawthorn +6.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Hawthorn Over 80.5
Team Total
@10/11 - 2 Units
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