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Gold Coast vs Essendon Tips - Suns send Bombers crashing

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 30 May 2024
Jeremy Darke 30 May 2024
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  • Gold Coast vs Essendon expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Heritage Bank Stadium, with the bounce at 4:00 PM (AEST)
  • Gold Coast expected to maintain their perfect home record.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Alex Sexton
Alex Sexton has been in good stride since returning from injury in Round 9. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Gold Coast vs Essendon, Round 12 2024 - Expert Prediction


This will be a telling game for both Essendon and the Gold Coast giving a true gauge of where their seasons are at. 
  • Gold Coast vs Essendon, Round 12 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Gold Coast Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Gold Coast Team News
  • Gold Coast Team List
  • Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trend
  • Essendon Team News
  • Essendon Team List

It is expected that the Suns will come out victorious and stake their claim as a finals contender with the Bombers dropping out of any serious top-four conversations.

Essendon are second on the ladder but have had a weaker strength of schedule to start the year. The Suns haven’t competed with any true contenders yet either but a win against the Bombers will prove that they can do the job against top eight teams, just as they did against Geelong a couple of weeks ago. 

Expect the Suns to keep their home record clean and Alex Sexton to be in the action again with over 20 Disposals.

  • The Gold Coast have won all 4 games this season at People First Stadium.
  • The Suns lead the league with 57.9 forward entries per game.
  • The Suns rank second in the AFL with 13.3 centre clearances per game.
  • Alex Sexton has averaged 24 disposals per game since returning from injury in Round 9.

Head to Head 


Essendon have not lost to the Gold Coast since Round 1, 2016 beating the Suns 7 times and the pair playing out a draw. 

Essendon beat the Coast 108-80 at Marvel Stadium in Round 2 last season, while the last time they played on the Gold Coast the match ended in a 73-all draw in 2022.

Gold Coast Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-23-23-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$236-53-33-2

It is fair to say that the Gold Coast are doing what was expected of them so far this season, sitting once again around the finals cut-off with 6 wins and 4 loses. 

Last week’s loss to Carlton was not as bad as the scoreline made it out to be in the end, going down 102-73. The Suns were in the match until the end of the third quarter with Carlton kicking two important goals either side of the final break which put them on a run of six straight goals and ended their day. 

The free-flowing nature of the Gold Coast attack has been their strength with Noah Anderson and Sam Flanders setting things up for their forward line with a league leading 57.9 Inside 50’s per game, however, there is still room for improvement taking the second-least Marks Inside 50 at just 9.8 per game.

Gold Coast Team News


Malcolm Rosas jnr is available this weekend, being cleared of a hamstring injury.

Gold Coast Team List


B: S.Collins, C.Ballard, M.Andrew
HB: S.Flanders, J.Jeffrey, A.Sexton
C: M.Rowell, T.Miller - C, S.Clohesy
HF: T.Berry, B.Humphrey, L.Johnston
F: B.King, B.Long, J.Lukosius
FOLL: J.Witts, N.Anderson, D.Swallow

I/C (FROM): R.Atkins, A.Davies, N.Holman, B.Ainsworth, S.Day, W.Graham, B.Uwland

IN: S.Flanders, R.Atkins, S.Day, W.Graham
OUT: J.Rogers (Omitted)

Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trend


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-12-31-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$573-87-11-1

Essendon have surprised the league sitting second on the ladder with an 8-2-1 record this season. Although, what needs to be magnified is that they have a 1-2-1 record against teams that are currently sitting in the top-eight and are 7-0 against bottom-ten teams.

The Bombers were pushed by the Tiger’s in Round 12 and were even on the brink of letting the win slip away with Richmond having 4 of the first five scoring shots of the fourth quarter that all resulted in behinds when the game was still in the balance. 

Essendon have the potential to be their worst enemy as a bottom-four team with a 44.2 Shooting Efficiency and a bottom-six team with a 22.0 Goal Efficiency.

Essendon Team News


Ben Hobbs will be until Round 15 with a calf injury.

Nik Cox avoided any serious injury to his hamstring and is set to play, while Will Setterfield has been cleared to play.

Essendon Team List


B: J.Ridley, B.McKay, J.Laverde
HB: N.Martin, M.Redman, A.McGrath
C: D.Heppell, S.Durham, J.Kelly
HF: J.Gresham, H.Jones, A.Perkins
F: J.Stringer, P.Wright, K.Langford
FOLL: T.Goldstein, J.Caldwell, Z.Merrett - C

I/C (FROM): E.Tsatas, N.Cox, N.Hind, N.Bryan, A.Davey Jnr, A.Roberts, J.Menzie

IN: H.Jones, N.Bryan, A.Roberts, J.Menzie
OUT: N.Caddy (Illness)

Verdict

The Suns will keep their perfect record at home and beat the Bombers and cover the 6.5-point line. Alex Sexton has been influential in his return from injury and will have 20+ disposals in the match.
Best Bet1: Gold Coast -6.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at PlayUP - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Alex Sexton 20+ Disposals @5/12 at Neds - 4 Units
Gold Coast -6.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 2 Units
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Alex Sexton
20+ Disposals
@5/12 - 4 Units
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