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Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants Tips - Suns to keep scores close and cover in AFL

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 06 Apr 2024
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Ryan Tucker 06 Apr 2024
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  • Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Adelaide Hills, with the bounce at 12:30 PM (AEST)
  • The match is predicted to be a close one with the Gold Coast Suns expected to cover the large line.
  • GWS Giants, having won three games this season, stand second on the ladder.
Expired
Gold Coast Suns
Ben Ainsworth of the Suns celebrates a goal with teammate Matt Rowell (Getty Images)

Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants Tips


The Suns and Giants will start the last day of the 2024 Gather Round in the Adelaide Hills with Gold Coast predicted to cover the large line.

Gold Coast started 2024 with a bang taking two wins from their opening two games. They were brought back down to earth last weekend by the Bulldogs who put 115 on them in Melbourne. The Suns have made a number of changes to their squad ahead of this game which could have an affect on their stamina bringing in new legs without much AFL run so far this season. 

GWS have picked up where they left off in 2023 winning three from three to start the season. They sit second on the ladder and have been dominant in their attack in all three of their wins. With that said they have played the two teams predicted to fight for the wooden spoon even allowing one of them to score over 80 points. 

The Suns are by no means a top tier team but compared to their previous two opponents the Giants will have a tougher game on their hands come Sunday. GWS outdo the Gold Coast in almost all statistical measures but it isn’t by much with the Suns even excelling at Stoppages averaging 37.3 Hit-Outs and 39.3 Clearances so far this season. 

  • GWS have allowed two of their three opponents this season to score over 80 points 
  • The Suns and Giants are 16th and 18th in the AFL in Tackles Inside 50 
  • GWS and Gold Coast are 1st and 2nd in the league in Contested Possessions
  • The Suns take the most Intercept Marks of any team with 77 per game

Head to Head 


GWS hold a 5-1 lead in the head to head since 2019 and have won the last two games straight. In the single match-up last season at Manuka Oval the Giants kicked 15 goals to take the win 103-63 covering the short -6.5 line. 

The Under has hit in 4 straight games between these teams with the Over hitting in the previous two. Three of the last four games have been decided by Margins of less than 40 points. 

Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-11-21-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$11-22-00-1

The Suns have definitely made improvements in the off-season under new coach Damian Hardwick. They are a more dynamic team with a strong defensive effort which can be seen by the Intercept Marks (1st) and Spoils (1st).

They are still having some trouble getting the ball into the 50 and converting their chances with an average of 40.2 scoring shots from Inside 50 but only 14.2 Goals from those chances. 

Gold Coast Suns Team News


Connor Budarick, Brandon Ellis, Levi Casboult, Ben Long, Ned Moyle and Alex Sexton have all been omitted from the squad. 

Mac Andrew, Malcolm Rosas and Jarrod Witts all get starting spots whilst Sam Day, Bailey Humphrey and Darcy McPherson are on an extended IC/Emergencies list. 

Sam Clohesy, Ethan Read and Will Graham will all make their debuts with Clohesy doing it from the first whistle. 

Gold Coast Suns Team List


B: B.Uwland, C.Ballard, S.Collins
HB: D.Swallow, W.Powell, M.Andrew
C: B.Fiorini, T.Miller - C, S.Clohesy
HF: B.Ainsworth, J.Walter, T.Berry
F: N.Holman, B.King, M.Rosas
FOLL: J.Witts, N.Anderson, M.Rowell

I/C (FROM): R.Atkins, S.Flanders, S.Day, J.Lukosius, B.Humphrey, W.Graham, D.Macpherson

GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-02-12-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$92-12-01-0

GWS have taken three wins from three games to start the year with the Opening Round victory over Premiers Collingwood their best win of the lot. 

The victories over North Melbourne and West Coast were to be expected but it is still good to get them under the belt early in the season. 

The Giants have kicked the most Goals on average of any team so far this year reaching over 100 points in all 3 games. They have also made use of their chances Inside 50 averaging 49.4% Efficiency up forward.

GWS Giants Team News


Nick Haynes, Ryan Angwin and Lachlan Keeffe have been added to the IC/Emergencies list. 

GWS Giants Team List


B: H.Perryman, S.Taylor, C.Idun
HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash
C: J.Wehr, J.Kelly, F.Callaghan
HF: B.Daniels, J.Riccardi, T.Bedford
F: T.Greene - C, J.Hogan, C.Brown
FOLL: K.Briggs, S.Coniglio, T.Green

I/C (FROM): X.O’Halloran, H.Thomas, H.Himmelberg, A.Cadman, J.Peatling, N.Haynes, R.Angwin, L.Keeffe

Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 4 FAQs

How to watch Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 4?

You can watch the Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 4 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 4?

To buy tickets to the Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 4 game check the AFL website or the official Gold Coast Suns site.

Verdict

It would be easy to bet blindly on the Giants here considering the blowout wins they have had this season and the dominance they have held over the Suns. But Gold Coast are a different team this year and GWS have not had to really contend with any pressure yet this year. The line is over 3 Goals so i am taking the Suns to cover which is in line with the predictive models. The Total will go Under as it has the past 4 games.
Best Bet1: Gold Coast +21.5 Handicap Line @10/11 at Justbet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 170.5 Game Total @8/9 at dabble - 1 Unit
Gold Coast +21.5
Handicap Line
@10/11 - 2 Units
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Bet at Justbet
Under 170.5
Game Total
@8/9 - 1 Unit
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