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Geelong vs North Melbourne Tips - Kangas put up a fight against the Cats

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 12 Apr 2024
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Jeremy Darke 12 Apr 2024
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  • Geelong vs North Melbourne expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium, with the bounce at 1:00 PM (AEST)
  • Will the Cats extend their win streak to 11 games against the Kangaroos?
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Jeremy Cameron
Jeremy Cameron has been exceptional for the Cats in the absence of Patrick Dangerfield. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Geelong vs North Melbourne, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction


The undefeated Cats will take on the winless Kangaroos on Sunday at GMHBA Stadium and those statistics will stay the same as it will be a familiar story between these two clubs with Geelong continuing a nine-year flawless dominance over North Melbourne. 
  • Geelong vs North Melbourne, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Geelong Team News
  • Geelong Team List
  • North Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • North Melbourne Team News
  • North Melbourne Team List
  • Geelong vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 5 FAQ’s

It was mid-season in 2015 when the Kangaroos tasted victory last time against the Cats and it is going to be at least another year before they get the chance to break their hoodoo with Geelong looking like a finals-bound team and won’t be beaten this weekend. 

The Kangaroos 0-4 record looks bad and North Melbourne aren’t great, but they have had a tough run against top teams to start the year. Their defensive half of the ball is what has been the issue for them and that will be were the Cats strike, putting hard pressure on the ball carrier and forcing them into mistakes and turnovers.

I don’t see this game blowing out despite the difference in records between the two teams. If you look at the way the Kangaroos were able to compete against both Fremantle and the Giants and even Carlton in the early stages, I give them a chance to keep this game under a 40-point margin.

There will be points from both teams in this game as I believe that the Kangaroos have been able to show smooth attacking footy in good periods and they will have their chance against the Cats who have actually leaked above average points to their opponents over their first four games. I am therefore getting on the over 178.5 game total in this one. 

  • Geelong have beaten North Melbourne in 10 straight matches.
  • All four of Geelong’s wins have been by a margin of 1-39.
  • North Melbourne have lost by less than 57 points in 3 of 4 matches in 2024.
  • 6 of 8 games involving North Melbourne and Geelong have gone over the game total in 2024.

Head to Head 


The Cats have not been beaten by the Kangaroos since round 15, 2015, accumulating 10 consecutive wins during that time with half of their victories coming at GMHBA Stadium.

Geelong beat the Kangaroos 125-63 in round 17 last season with Tyson Stengle kicking 5 goals and Oliver Henry kicking 4.

Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-03-12-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$382-24-00-0

Geelong got another gritty win in round 4, beating the Western Bulldogs 14.11.(95) - 14.7. (91), extinguishing a late attack by the Bulldogs who kicked 5 of the last 6 goals to reduce their lead from 28 to 4. Jeremy Cameron picked up some of the extra work left by the absence of Patrick Dangerfield who was out tith injury, racking up 27 disposals and eight marks along with 2 goals.

The win against the Bulldogs was Geelong’s fourth in as many games this season as they look destined to return to the finals after watching on last season. Kick pressure has been the key for the Cats this season, not giving their opponents any time with the ball making an average of 69.5 tackles a game which is good for second-best in the AFL behind Carlton.

Geelong Team News


The Cats will get a boost with the fitness of Patrick Dangerfield who is expected to play after recovering from a hamstring injury.

Gary Rohan is expected to play for the first time this season after being hindered by a back strain. 

Geelong Team List


B: T.Stewart - C, S.De Koning, C.O’Sullivan
HB: M.Duncan, J.Henry, M.Holmes
C: Z.Tuohy, T.Bruhn, O.Dempsey
HF: B.Close, T.Stengle, G.Miers
F: J.Cameron, T.Hawkins, O.Henry
FOLL: R.Stanley, B.Parfitt, M.Blicavs

I/C (FROM): T.Atkins, J.Bowes, J.Clark, Z.Guthrie, M.O’Connor, S.Mannagh, S.Neale

IN: C..O’Sullivan, S.Mannagh, S.Neale
OUT: Nil

North Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
0-41-33-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$403-10-20-2

The Kangaroos are 0-4 this season, but to be fair they have had a rather difficult schedule to start the 2024 season, considering they just missed The Spoon last year. Losses against the Giants, the Dockers, the Blues and most recently the Lions doesn’t sound as bad when you read it out loud. 

North Melbourne have been in the fight in their first three games, although Brisbane touched them up early in the first quarter last week in Adelaide, handing them their biggest loss of the year, beating them by 70 points after taking a 33-point lead into the first break.

North Melbourne Team News


Curtis Taylor is expected to make his return from a back injury this weekend as well as Riley Hardman who will come through concussion protocol.

North Melbourne Team List


B: C.Comben, A.Corr, K.Dawson
HB: H.Sheezel, C.McKercher, L.McDonald
C: D.Tucker, L.Davies-Uniacke, B.Scott
HF: Z.Duursma, T.Powell, E.Ford
F: P.Curtis, N.Larkey, Z.Fisher
FOLL: T.Xerri, H.Greenwood, J.Simpkin - C

I/C (FROM): D.Stephens, G.Wardlaw, T.Sellers, R.Hansen Jr, W.Phillips, B.Drury, L.Shiels

IN: T.Sellers, R.Hansen Jr, W.Phillips, J.Archer, B.Drury
OUT: C.Zurhaar (Injured), J.Stephenson (Omitted)

Geelong vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Geelong vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 5?

You can watch the Geelong vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Geelong vs North Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 5 game check the AFL website or the official Geelong site.

Verdict

Geelong will get the win but will not cover the 56.5 points as favourites beating North Melbourne by a margin of 1-39.
 
Both teams will put a decent score which will see th game total go Over the 178.5 points given by the book.
Best Bet1: Geelong 1-39 Little Win @11/5 at Justbet - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: North Melbourne +56.5 Handicap/Line @20/21 at Bet Right - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Over 178.5 Game Total @9/10 at Puntnow - 2 Units
Geelong 1-39
Little Win
@11/5 - 1 Unit
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North Melbourne +56.5
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@20/21 - 3 Units
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Betting Slip | 14 Apr 2024

Geelong v North Melbourne