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Geelong vs Carlton Tips - Cats to consolidate top spot making it 7 in a row

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Last updated: 25 Apr 2024
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Ryan Tucker 25 Apr 2024
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  • Geelong vs Carlton expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 4:35 PM (AEST)
  • Geelong predicted to win against Carlton in the AFL's 2024 Round 7 match.
  • The game is expected to hinge on the Ruck contests, with Geelong having the advantage.
  • Carlton is predicted to restrict Geelong's scoring, keeping the margin within 1-39.
Expired
Tom Stewart
Tom Stewart will miss this game for the Cats with concussion. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Geelong vs Carlton, Round 7 2024 - Expert Prediction


Geelong are predicted to beat Carlton by a small margin this Saturday at the MCG, covering the -2.5 line as favourites.
  • Geelong vs Carlton, Round 7 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Geelong Team News
  • Geelong Team List
  • Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Carlton Team News
  • Carlton Team List
  • Geelong vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 7 FAQ’s

This game will be decided in the Ruck contests with Geelong having the upper hand in Hit Outs and Overall Clearances. There is also some great matchups in the Geelong forward line and Carlton backline which will dictate whether or not the Cats can rack up a score or if it stays tight.

The prediction is that Carlton will be able to restrict Geelong somewhat in their scoring keeping the margin to within 1-39.

  • Geelong are 4th in the league in Hit Outs averaging 43.3 per game
  • Carlton only allow their opponents 32.8 Hit Outs per game, 6th best in the AFL
  • The Cats average 54.1% Accuracy in front of Goal, 3rd best in the league
  • The Blues allow their opponents a 53.9% Accuracy rating 5th worst in the AFL

Head to Head 


Despite both teams being from Victoria the Cats and Blues have met only once per year in the last 5 seasons since the beginning of 2019. Geelong have won 3 of the 5 battles but it is Carlton that had the most recent victory in 2023 with a 90-82 win at the MCG.

Geelong have been favoured in all 5 of the most recent matchups and covered in all 3 of their wins. Of those wins two were by margins of 1-39 whilst the 2019 victory was by 68 points at a time when Carlton were still rebuilding. 

3 of the last 5 Game Totals have gone Over including the Blues win in 2023. Only 2 of the past 5 games would have reached the Total of 170.5 set for this game.

Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
5-05-03-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$523-35-01-0

The Cats have had a resurgence in form this season following their collapse in 2023. They are 6 from 6 to start the year with solid defensive efforts being key to their strong victories. In only one game have they allowed their opponents to score more than 77 points and are still yet to concede 100 in a game in 2024.

Geelong lead the league in Tackles, averaging 69 per game so far this year giving weight to the renewed defensive tactics of the 2022 premiers. 

Geelong Team News


Tom Stewart has been ruled out with concussion ahead of this matchup with Carlton. Connor O’Sullivan is expected to replace the veteran. Cam Guthrie and Gary Rohan will look to continue to build matchfitness in the VFL.

Geelong Team List


B: Z.Guthrie, S.De Koning, J.Kolodjashnij
HB: Z.Tuohy, J.Henry, M.Holmes
C: M.O’Connor, P.Dangerfield - C, M.Blicavs
HF: B.Close, J.Cameron, G.Miers
F: T.Stengle, T.Hawkins, O.Henry
FOLL: R.Stanley, C.Guthrie, T.Bruhn

I/C: O.Dempsey, B.Parfitt, J.Bowes, T.Atkins, M.Duncan
EMG: S.Neale, J.Clark, T.Conway

IN: Z.Tuohy, R.Stanley, C.Guthrie
OUT: T.Stewart (Injured), T.Conway (Omitted), J.Clark (Omitted)

Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-13-23-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$384-24-11-0

The Blues have been one of the biggest surprise packets of the AFL this season winning 5 of their 6 games so far this year. Some scheduled wins against the Tigers and Kangaroos were of course expected but close wins over the Lions and Dockers were solidified last week with a 19 point victory over the Giants last weekend. 

Carlton lead the league in Tackles Inside 50 with defensive pressure being a large factor to their success this season. They are though below average in Intercept Marks instead focusing on taking the man and not the ball which could prove difficult against a strong Cats forward line.

Carlton Team News


Zac Williams will be tested closer to game time to determine if he is right to play. More team news to come.

Carlton Team List


B: L.Cowan, Le.Young, B.Kemp
HB: Z.Williams, J.Weitering, N.Newman
C: O.Hollands, P.Cripps - C, B.Acres
HF: E.Hollands, H.McKay, M.Cottrell
F: M.Owies, T.De Koning, C.Curnow
FOLL: M.Pittonet, S.Walsh, G.Hewett

I/C: J.Boyd, M.Kennedy, J.Carroll, C.Durdin, O.Fantasia
EMG: J.Binns, S.Durdin, A.Cincotta

No changes

Geelong vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 7 FAQ’s

How to watch Geelong vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 7?

You can watch the Geelong vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 7 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 7?

To buy tickets to the Geelong vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 7 game check the AFL website or the official Geelong site.

Verdict

With both of these teams over-achieving compared to their pre-season predictions it is only right that one falls this weekend. Based on their performances though i don’t predict a total capitulation. Carlton will keep the score close enough to challenge at the death as they have been known to do, but Geelong will have the experience and skill to hold on for a little win also keeping the Game Total Under.
Best Bet1: Geelong -2.5 Handicap Line @10/11 at Justbet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Geelong 1-39 Winning Margin @4/3 at Puntnow - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Under 170.5 Game Total @8/9 at Topsport - 1 Unit
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Betting Slip | 27 Apr 2024

Geelong v Carlton