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Melbourne vs Fremantle Tips - Freo up to the task of the desert

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 31 May 2024
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Jeremy Darke 31 May 2024
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  • Melbourne vs Fremantle expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at TIO Traeger Park, with the bounce at 1:00 PM (AEST)
  • History at TIO Traeger Park suggests a low-scoring match below 101 points.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Traeger Park
TIO Traeger Park to host its second match in consecutive years. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Melbourne vs Fremantle, Round 12 2024 - Expert Prediction


The match between Melbourne and Fremantle is set up to be a game of possession with both teams enjoying holding onto the ball and relying on their ability to rack up uncontested possessions, which will see the game total stay Under the enticing total of 150.5.
  • Melbourne vs Fremantle, Round 12 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Team News
  • Melbourne Team List
  • Fremantle Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Fremantle Team News
  • Fremantle Team List
  • Melbourne vs Fremantle AFL 2024 Round 12 FAQ’s

History at TIO Traeger Park in Alice Springs is also on the side of the Under with the past two matches averaging a Game Total of just 96.5 points. Conditions are generally tough in the heart of Australia but it looks to be perfect weather for footy which will see these two teams play a normal controlled game, keeping the ball off their opponent. 

Melbourne have played just 4 games outside of the MCG this season with a 50% win record getting two wins in consecutive weeks in Adelaide otherwise they did not travel well to Sydney or Perth. With this in mind and the possibility of a very low-scoring contest I like the probability of Fremantle to cover the double-digit line as the underdog.

  • Melbourne have lost their last 3 matches at TIO Traegar Park.
  • Fremantle have covered the line in 4 of 5 games outside of Perth this season.
  • The past 2 games at Traeger Park have not exceeding 101 points in the match.
  • 15 of 22 games involving Melbourne and Fremantle have gone Under the Game Total.

Head to Head 


It has been one-for-one between these two clubs since 2019, with both winning three matches each during the span. 

Freo got the last win, which was at the MCG last season, beating the Demons 79-72.

Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-23-22-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$64-74-43-0

After a couple of mediocre performances that resulted in losses to Carlton and West Coast, the Demons settled things down and got a solid win against St. Kilda last weekend, beating the Saints 100-62.

The Demons took a much different approach against St Kilda than they did against the Eagles the week before, putting the ball in their forward third 67 times in the match which is just under 30% more than their season average. The forward pressure paid off kicking their second biggest score of the season.

Melbourne Team News


Jacob van Rooyen will miss the clash through injury, however, David Turner has recovered from his calf injury and is named on the interchange. 

Melbourne Team List


B: J.Bowey, S.May, T.Rivers
HB: C.Salem, A.Tomlinson, T.McDonald
C: E.Langdon, C.Oliver, C.Windsor
HF: S.McAdam, B.Fritsch, K.Chandler
F: K.Pickett, H.Petty, A.Neal-Bullen
FOL: M.Gawn - C, J.Viney, C.Petracca

I/C (FROM): J.McVee, L.Hunter, J.Billings, B.Laurie, T.Sparrow, D.Turner, B.Brown

IN: J.Billings, B.Laurie, D.Turner, B.Brown
OUT: J.van Rooyen (Injured)

Fremantle Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/L/DLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-1-13-21-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$13-85-31-1

Freo salvaged two points in dramatic fashion coming from 25 points down from the 20-minute mark in the final term, shutting out the Pies during that time and kicking a behind in the final minute to tie the game, which looked well out of reach.

The draw moved the Dockers into ninth place on the ladder, losing just one game of their past 5 with three wins and the draw.

Fremantle won the contested possessions by nine in the final stage of the game and showed what they can do when they commit to the contest. Unfortunately for the Dockers they rank in the bottom-four in Contested Possession, relying heavily on clean ball where they rank second in the AFL in Uncontested Possessions.

Fremantle Team News


No new concerns for Fremantle with Michael Frederick recovering well from a minor head knock last week and has been named at half forward.

Fremantle Team List


B: H.Chapman, A.Pearce - C, J.Draper
HB: J.Aish, L.Ryan, J.Clark
C: J.Sharp, A.Brayshaw, H.Young
HF: J.O’Meara, S.Switkowski, M.Frederick
F: J.Treacy, J.Amiss, L.Jackson
FOLL: S.Darcy, C.Serong, N.Fyfe

I/C (FROM): M.Walters, T.Emmett, M.Johnson, N.Erasmus, B.Walker, B.Banfield, C.Wagner

IN: M.Frederick, N.Erasmus, S.Sturt
OUT: Nil

Melbourne vs Fremantle AFL 2024 Round 12 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne vs Fremantle AFL 2024 Round 12?

You can watch the Melbourne vs Fremantle AFL 2024 Round 12 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne vs Fremantle AFL 2024 Round 12?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne vs Fremantle AFL 2024 Round 12 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne site.

Verdict

Possession and clean disposals will be high in this game which will keep this total Under the 150.5-point mark with Freo covering as the 11.5-point underdog.
Best Bet1: Fremantle +11.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at Topsport - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 150.5 Game Total @9/10 at PlayUP - 2 Units
Fremantle +11.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Under 150.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 2 Units
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