2024 AFL Round 22

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Fremantle vs Geelong Tips - Top 8 race heats up with Freo expected to hand Cats a loss

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 08 Aug 2024

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Ryan Tucker 08 Aug 2024

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Fremantle vs Geelong expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
The game will be played at Optus Stadium, with the bounce at 4:35 PM (AEST)
Fremantle leads the league in Disposal Efficiency at 75.8%, while Geelong ranks last at 68.9%.
The Dockers are second in Stoppage Clearances; Geelong struggles, allowing 29.5 per game.
Fremantle has won 4 of the last 6 encounters with Geelong, including the last 3 in a row.

Ryan picks out the best tips for each of the 3 late window games on AFL Saturday.

Fremantle vs Geelong, Round 22 2024 - Expert Prediction

A tight contest is expected at Optus stadium this Saturday afternoon with Fremantle tipped to edge out Geelong and make it 4 wins in a row against the Cats.

Fremantle vs Geelong, Round 22 2024 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Fremantle Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Fremantle Team News
Fremantle Team List
Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Geelong Team News
Geelong Team List
Fremantle vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 22 FAQ’s

These teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to using the footy well. Fremantle lead the league in Disposal Efficiency whilst Geelong are dead last. The measure hasn’t seemed to hamper the Cats all that much this season as they sit equal 3rd on the ladder but it will come into play against a team that doesn’t offer much ball in return and can capitalise on mistakes.

Another point of difference will be Stoppage Clearances. Even if De Koning can play for Geelong you wouldn’t expect him to be at 100% which is a big advantage for Freo who are 2nd in the league at Stoppage Clearances.

My prediction is Fremantle will get the win with a small Win Margin at home where they have lost only 2 games this season.

The Dockers have allowed their opponent an average of only 67 points in their last 5 games at home resulting in 4 wins and a draw.
Fremantle lead the league in Disposal Efficiency at 75.8%
Geelong are last in the league in Disposal Efficiency at 68.9%
The Cats allow the most Stoppage Clearances to their opponents at 29.5 per game

Head to Head

These teams have met on 6 occasions since the beginning of the 2019 season. Fremantle have won 4 of those 6 including the last 3 in a row.

The most recent matchup was in Round 20 last year with the Dockers taking a 71-64 win at GMHBA stadium.

The Game Total has gone Under in 4 of the 6 games played in this period and all but 1 Winning Margin has stayed between 1-39.

Freo have covered in all of their wins going in as Underdogs in all 6 games.

Fremantle Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	5-0

2024 Betting Trends

$10 ML	Over/Under	1-39	40+
$33	11-9	8-5	4-2

Fremantle suffered a heartbreaking 1 point loss to Essendon last weekend after giving up a 25pt fourth quarter lead. It was only the 2nd loss in 7 games for the Dockers, breaking a 2 game win streak. They now drop from 3rd to 6th on the ladder with Geelong, GWS and Port Adelaide to complete the run home.

The Bombers forward line woke to life late in the piece last weekend to kick 5 of the last 6 goals of the game. The Dockers themselves had wrestled back the momentum from their opponent in the 2nd quarter but could not go the distance.

Freo had fewer Inside 50’s (44) compared to their season average while also putting up an inferior number for Efficieny Inside 50 (43.2%).

Fremantle Team News

Tom Emmett has received a one match suspension for a dangerous tackle at the weekend. Josh Treacy pulled up with some knee soreness but is expected to play.

Oscar McDonald, Ollie Murphy and Michael Walters could all be up for selection next week.

Fremantle Team List

B: L.Ryan, J.Draper, B.Cox

HB: B.Walker, H.Chapman, J.Clark

C: J.O’Meara, H.Young, J.Sharp

HF: A.Brayshaw - C, S.Switkowski, M.Frederick

F: J.Amiss, M.Johnson, L.Jackson

FOLL: S.Darcy, C.Serong, N.Fyfe

I/C: S.Sturt, K.Worner, C.Wagner, P.Voss, B.Banfield

EMG: M.Taberner, N.O’Driscoll, N.Erasmus

IN: M.Johnson, N.Fyfe, K.Worner, P.Voss

OUT: J.Treacy (Injured), J.Aish (Omitted), T.Emmett (Suspension), N.Erasmus (Omitted)

Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

2024 Betting Trends

$10 ML	Over/Under	1-39	40+
$22	11-9	9-4	4-3

Geelong had a comeback victory against Adelaide last weekend putting them at equal 3rd in the Premiership but 5th on the ladder with percentage. It was their 5th win in 6 games as they eye a return to finals footy this season.

The Cats dominated the Clearances 53-33 with De Koning owning Stoppages around the park before he was subbed out with an injury. They also made the most of the forward entries hitting 50% Efficiency on 58 Inside 50’s, both numbers better than their season averages.

Geelong Team News

Sam De Koning had Cats fans worried following an injury scare last weekend but will be put through his paces this week at training and is a chance to play. Gary Rohan is in concussion protocols but if he passes all the relevant tests he will also be available for selection. Mark O’Connor will miss a couple weeks with a knee injury.

Geelong Team List

B: M.Duncan, J.Henry, J.Kolodjashnij

HB: L.Humphries, Z.Guthrie, M.Blicavs

C: M.Holmes, T.Atkins, O.Dempsey

HF: T.Stengle, B.Close, S.Mannagh

F: S.Neale, J.Cameron, O.Henry

FOLL: R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield - C, T.Stewart

I/C: Z.Tuohy, G.Rohan, T.Bruhn, G.Miers, J.Bowes

EMG: O.Mullin, J.Bews, M.Knevitt

IN: M.Duncan, G.Rohan

OUT: S.De Koning (Injured), J.Bews (Omitted)

Fremantle vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 22 FAQ’s

How to watch Fremantle vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 22?

You can watch the Fremantle vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 22 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Fremantle vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 22?

To buy tickets to the Fremantle vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 22 game check the AFL website or the official Fremantle site.

Verdict

Fremantle v Geelong

Fremantle will win this one based on their ball usage and dominance around the Stoppages, especially when they are at home. It could all come down to a kick of two like it has multiple times for the Dockers this season.

Fremantle 1-39

Winning Margin

$2.10 - 2 Units

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