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Essendon vs GWS Giants Tips - Giants to rebound from derby loss with dominant performance against Bombers
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- Essendon vs GWS Giants expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
- The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 4:35 PM (AEST)
- GWS Giants poised for a comeback following a loss to Sydney
- Essendon may struggle due to high turnovers
- Predictive model suggests a 12-point victory for the Giants
Expired
Tom Green is expected to return against the Bombers (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Essendon vs GWS Giants, Round 9 2024 - Expert Prediction
GWS will be back out looking for blood following their Sydney Derby loss last weekend and Essendon will have trouble containing the run and rebounding of the Giants.
- Essendon vs GWS Giants, Round 9 2024 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Essendon Team News
- Essendon Team List
- GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- GWS Giants Team News
- GWS Giants Team List
- Essendon vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 9 FAQ’s
Essendon have the better numbers around the clearances but that’s about it, if GWS can look to just shave off a couple of the Bombers balls out of the middle they will be afforded opportunities on Turnovers and Inside 50’s with Essendon committing the 6th most Turnovers of any team on average this season.
The blow out last year is more an exception than the rule but the 8 points on offer here is in my opinion a little low with the predictive model giving the Giants a 12 point victory. We will back the model and follow the recent head to head trends siding with the Giants to cover.
- Essendon commit 69.1 Turnovers per game, 6th most in the AFL
- GWS score the 2nd most Points from Turnovers in the league at 60.6
- All but one of the Giants wins this season have been by 19 or more points
- GWS have played and beat Essendon twice in the past 3 years in the week following a loss to Sydney
Head to Head
These teams have met 8 times since the beginning of the 2019 season with GWS totally dominating Essendon winning 6 of 8 and 5 of the last 6. The two meetings last year were split 1-1 with the home team winning on both occasions. The margins though were stark contrasts with GWS winning by 126 in their game compared to the 13 point margin when Essendon took the victory.
5 of the las 8 Game Totals have gone Under and excluding the 126 point margin in the most recent game there has been 6 straight games with Margins of 27 points or less, three games in single digits.
Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| $38 | 3-5 | 5-1 | 0-1 |
The Bombers were lucky to get away with the W in Perth last weekend against the Eagles. They led for the majority of the game but almost let it slip from their grasp late as their opponents peppered the goal right up until the final siren.
Essendon had an inconsistent day in front of goal compared to their opponents kicking 11.11 to the Eagles 11.5. The Bombers also allowed their opponent to score the same number of goals on fewer entries Inside 50, they are 8th in the league in this measure.
Essendon Team News
Jye Caldwell, Sam Draper, Jye Menzie and Zach Reid will need to pass fitness tests to be available for selection. Jordan Ridley is still a week or two away with a quad injury and Will Setterfield is another week or two after that.
Essendon Team List
B: D.Heppell, B.McKay, J.Laverde
HB: N.Martin, M.Redman, A.McGrath
C: M.Guelfi, D.Parish, J.Kelly
HF: S.Durham, K.Langford, J.Gresham
F: H.Jones, P.Wright, A.Perkins
FOLL: T.Goldstein, J.Caldwell, Z.Merrett - C
I/C: B.Hobbs, N.Cox, N.Hind, J.Stringer, A.Davey Jnr
EMG: E.Tsatas, D.Shiel, S.Weideman
IN: N.Hind
OUT: X.Duursma (Injured)
GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4 | 6-2 | 4-2 | 2-0 |
GWS lost their 2nd Sydney Derby in a row last weekend sending their cross city counterparts to the top of the AFL table. The Giants numbers were down across the board in the game hitting below their season average for Disposals, Inside 50’s and Centre Clearances.
Despite leading by 15 points late in the first the Giants let the lead slip away. 80 turnovers in the game, far above their season average, resulted in their opposition having 10 different goal scorers, almost kicking them at will. GWS were also held to their lowest score of the season.
GWS Giants Team News
Veteran Stephen Coniglio is expected to return when teams are released, Tom Green is also expected to pass a fitness test and play. Callum Brown has been suspended for 3 games and Isaac Cumming will miss more time with complications around his hamstring injury.
GWS Giants Team List
B: C.Idun, S.Taylor, H.Perryman
HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash
C: N.Haynes, J.Kelly, F.Callaghan
HF: B.Daniels, A.Cadman, T.Bedford
F: T.Greene - C, J.Hogan, H.Thomas
FOLL: K.Briggs, C.Ward, S.Coniglio
I/C: D.Jones, T.Green, H.Himmelberg, J.Riccardi, C.Stone
EMG: J.Peatling, J.Wehr, M.Gruzewski
IN: N.Haynes, S.Coniglio, C.Stone
OUT: J.Wehr (Omitted), C.Brown (Suspension), J.Peatling (Omitted)
Essendon vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 9 FAQ’s
How to watch Essendon vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 9?
You can watch the Essendon vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 9 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Essendon vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 9?
To buy tickets to the Essendon vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 9 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon site.
Verdict
GWS will be able to capitalise on the Essendon Turnovers and inability to stop the running attack. The Giants will also be extremely hungry to get back in the winners circle following their loss to Sydney last week. Twice in the past three years GWS and Essendon have met following a Giants loss to Sydney, they won both times, get on the trend!
Giants -8.5
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Under 177.5
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