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Essendon vs Carlton Tips - Another draw on the cards in tight MCG clash

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 07 Jun 2024
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Jeremy Darke 07 Jun 2024
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  • Essendon vs Carlton expert predictions for Sunday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:20 PM (AEST)
  • Essendon's 7-game winning streak ended last week; currently 2nd on the ladder.
  • Carlton on a 2-game winning streak; solid recent performances.
  • Expert prediction: Potential draw or Essendon to cover as underdogs; Total score likely to stay low.
Best Bets for AFL Sunday & Monday, June 9-10.

Essendon vs Carlton, Round 13 2024 - Expert Prediction


Essendon suffered a setback last week breaking their 7 game unbeaten streak whilst the Blues have started a small winning streak of their own. The differences in form are marginal which makes this game extremely hard to pick.
  • Essendon vs Carlton, Round 13 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Essendon Team News
  • Essendon Team List
  • Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Carlton Team News
  • Carlton Team List
  • Essendon vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 13 FAQ’s

The most fun option is of course to bet the draw of which we have already had 3 this season, an unusually high number. The top half of the comp though is just that close with teams rolling in and out of form and injuries leveling the playing field.

Apart from the long shot of the tied game I believe the value lies with the Bombers getting the start. They have won half their games as the Underdog this season and whilst the Blues are on a roll they are a tired bunch with injuries in key positions.

  • The Bombers are 4th in the league at Inside 50’s gaining 56.3 per game
  • Essendon have a 50% win rate as Underdogs this season and cover at 62% as the dog
  • The Away team has won 4 straight times in this matchup, all games have though been played at the MCG
  • Over the past 5 games the Total has gone over 170 points only once

Head to Head 


Essendon and Carlton have met only once per year since the beginning of the 2019 season. The Blues have won 3 of those 5 games but it was the Bombers who tasted success most recently with a 86-52 win in Round 13 last year.

The game winner has also covered the line in the previous 5 hitouts with Carlton having a 3-2 advantage. 

The Game Total has gone Under in the previous two games and 4 of the last 5 with the Winning Margin being between 1-39 in 4 straight games.

Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-11-41-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML
Over/Under
1-39
40+
$474-87-21-1

The Bombers had a 7 game unbeaten streak broken last weekend by the Suns. That streak though has catapulted them to 2nd on the Premiership ladder behind the Swans. 

A loss was bound to come for the Bombers who were over exceeding their expectation and to be honest it was probably just Accuracy in front of Goal that put them on the losing end in that game as all other statistical measures were very equal.

Essendon Team News


Unfortunately for the Bombers their list of injuries isn’t getting smaller. Mason Redman will miss a couple of weeks with a hammy whilst Darcy Parish is looking at over a month with a recurring calf problem. Zach Reid is now expected to miss the remainder of the regular season with a pec injury.

Kyle Langford and Todd Goldstein could be included in the team this week if they pass fitness tests.

Essendon Team List


B: J.Ridley, B.McKay, J.Laverde
HB: N.Martin, J.Kelly, A.McGrath
C: D.Heppell, S.Durham, A.Perkins
HF: M.Guelfi, J.Gresham, H.Jones
F: J.Stringer, P.Wright, K.Langford
FOLL: T.Goldstein, J.Caldwell, Z.Merrett - C

I/C (FROM): E.Tsatas, D.Shiel, W.Setterfield, N.Cox, N.Hind, A.Roberts, J.Menzie

IN: T.Goldstein, D.Shiel, W.Setterfield, A.Roberts
OUT: M.Redman (Injured)

Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-23-22-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML
Over/Under
1-39
40+
$377-57-31-1

Carlton are on a 2 game win streak and looked to have finally kicked the close game hoodoo with their previous 3 matchups all finishing with Winning Margins of 29 points or more. 

A 36 point win over Port in Adelaide last game is probably the teams best win to date this season and they did it by reducing the forward entries of their opponent. 

Carlton Team News


A host of Blues players have niggling injuries either keeping them out or hampering their output. The team will have the bye next week so probably won’t rush anyone back early against the Bombers. Marc Pittonet and Sam Durdin are scheduled to return this week anyway but will need to pass fitness tests.

Carlton Team List


B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, L.Cowan
HB: A.Saad, M.McGovern, N.Newman
C: O.Hollands, P.Cripps - C, B.Acres
HF: Z.Williams, C.Curnow, A.Cincotta
F: E.Hollands, H.McKay, M.Owies
FOLL: T.De Koning, S.Walsh, M.Kennedy

I/C (FROM): J.Carroll, C.Durdin, L.Fogarty, J.Boyd, G.Hewett, C.Marchbank, J.Binns

IN: C.Durdin, J.Motlop, C.Marchbank, J.Binns
OUT: O.Fantasia (Injured)

Essendon vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 13 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 13?

You can watch the Essendon vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 13 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Essendon vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 13?

To buy tickets to the Essendon vs Carlton AFL 2024 Round 13 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon site.

Verdict

I really think this could be another draw and the predictive modelling backs it up. If that doesn't eventuate then Essendon will cover the large line as Underdogs with the total staying low.
Best Bet1: Draw Draw @50/1 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Essendon +11.5 Line @9/10 at Elitebet - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Under 170.5 Game Total @9/10 at PlayUP - 2 Units
Draw
Draw
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Essendon v Carlton