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Essendon vs Adelaide Crows Tips - Low scoring game expected with Underdog to cover in Friday night clash
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- Essendon vs Adelaide Crows expert predictions for Friday’s AFL game
- The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
- Adelaide tipped to cover the 12.5 point spread as underdogs.
- Essendon has won only 2 of their last 7 games; Adelaide shows strong ATS performance on the road.
Ryan breaks down the Essendon vs Adelaide match up to give his top tip!
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows, Round 19 2024 - Expert Prediction
The Bombers and Crows will again duel things out this Friday night at Marvel stadium with Adelaide tipped to cover the double digit line away from home.
- Essendon vs Adelaide Crows, Round 19 2024 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Essendon Team News
- Essendon Team List
- Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Adelaide Crows Team News
- Adelaide Crows Team List
- Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2024 Round 19 FAQ’s
The interesting thing about statistics and numbers is that they can tell a story which might have easily been missed. Just a few weeks ago Essendon were thought to be one of the more consistent teams in the 2024 season. They had snuck up to 2nd spot on the ladder and were charging home for a top 4 spot. Fast forward to the end of Round 18 and they have won only 2 of their last 7 games, with a percentage of only 98.8% - the lowest of the top 12 teams.
Adelaide have not impressed at all this season but are 5-2 ATS on the road and showed some great tactical play in the wet against St Kilda last weekend. Their stat sheet over the season reads much similar to that of Essendon with almost matching numbers of Inside 50’s, Disposal Efficiency and Turnovers whilst having superior numbers at Stoppage Clerances and Hitouts.
On the back of that my prediction is that Adelaide could go as far as to upset Essendon this friday night. In any case they should be close enough to cover as 12.5 point Underdogs.
- Adelaide are 5-2 ATS as the away team in 2024
- 3 of the last 5 games have finished with a margin of 4 points or less.
- The Crows allow an average of only 9.8 Marks Inside 50 to their opponents, the lowest number in the AFL.
- Essendon have the 3rd worst number for Opposition Rebound 50’s allowing 43.1 per game.
Head to Head
Essendon and Adelaide have met in 6 regular season games since the beginning of the 2019 season. Essendon have won all 6 games with their last loss coming in Round 21 of the 2017 season making it 7 wins in a row.
Across the 6 game span since 2019 there has been in an even split 3-3 for the Over/Under Game Total with the most recent matchup in Round 6 earlier this year going Under.
The Winning Margin in the most recent game was 3 points which coincides with the trend of close games between these two clubs. 5 of the last 6 have all finished with Margins of 1-39 points.
Essendon are 4-2 ATS across the last 6 games with 3 of those 4 games covering as Underdogs.
Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| $32 | 8-9 | 9-4 | 1-2 |
The Bombers were overrun by their opponents Melbourne last weekend in wet conditions at the G. Essendon looked confident early getting lots of ball out the back of the Dees defence but were unable to put a significant margin on the scoreboard.
Melbourne then took control of the scoring and despite Essendon having more Inside 50’s and more Marks in the game were 41 points in arrears in the fourth term. Some late goals rallied the team and made the score look more respectable but they were clearly outplayed by a more determined opponent.
Essendon Team News
Darcy Parish is nearing a return for the Dons but in crushing news Kaine Baldwin has been confirmed out for the remainder of the season.
No more new injury news for Essendon.
Essendon Team List
B: J.Ridley, B.McKay, J.Laverde
HB: N.Martin, M.Redman, A.McGrath
C: X.Duursma, D.Shiel, M.Guelfi
HF: H.Jones, N.Caddy, S.Durham
F: J.Stringer, K.Langford, T.Goldstein
FOLL: S.Draper, J.Caldwell, Z.Merrett - C
I/C: J.Gresham, N.Cox, A.Perkins, J.Kelly, J.Menzie
EMG: B.Hobbs, P.Wright, D.Heppell
IN: J.Laverde, T.Goldstein, J.Menzie
OUT: N.Hind (Omitted), P.Wright (Omitted), D.Heppell (Omitted)
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$51 | 8-9 | 4-9 | 2-1 |
The Crows had no troubles getting the win 71-39 over the struggling Saints last weekend as they restricted their opponent to their lowest total of the year and the 6th lowest total of any team in 2024.
The scores were tight for the first three quarters but Adelaide were the better team in the wet, utilising the conditions to their favour. In a game with a ton of stoppages the Crows dominated the Clearances putting themselves on the front foot against a team known for their tough defensive approach.
It was though Adelaide that were able to keep their opponents to only 1 goal through the final 3 quarters of the game to run out victors.
Adelaide Crows Team News
Defender Mitch Hinge will return in Friday night’s clash against the Bombers after successful recovery from an adductor injury.
Will Hamill, Josh Worrell and Karl Gallagher could all feature as early as next week from their respective injuries.
Adelaide Crows Team List
B: M.Keane, N.Murray, J.Butts
HB: M.Michalanney, L.Nankervis, B.Smith
C: L.Sholl, S.Berry, B.Dowling
HF: B.Keays, L.Murphy, J.Soligo
F: E.Himmelberg, R.Thilthorpe, D.Fogarty
FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, J.Dawson - C
I/C: B.Cook, Z.Taylor, H.Bond, M.Hinge, J.Rachele
EMG: J.Borlase, D.Curtin, L.Gollant
IN: M.Hinge
OUT: T.Walker (Managed)
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2024 Round 19 FAQ’s
How to watch Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2024 Round 19?
You can watch the Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2024 Round 19 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2024 Round 19?
To buy tickets to the Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2024 Round 19 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon site.
Verdict
Adelaide will keep it close enough to cover as underdogs against Essendon this Friday night. With solid defence the score will also be kept low.
Adelaide +12.5
Line
$1.91 - 2 Units
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