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Collingwood vs Geelong Cats Tips - Pies predicted to get win in evenly matched game at the G

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Last updated: 11 Jul 2024
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Ryan Tucker 11 Jul 2024
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  • Collingwood vs Geelong Cats expert predictions for Friday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
  • Collingwood vs Geelong Cats Round 18 2024 is predicted to be a closely contested match.
  • Collingwood's midfield execution and scoring shots inside 50 give them a slight edge.
  • Both teams' recent trends suggest a high-scoring game, likely going over the game total.
Ryan's top two tips for the Friday night special at the G.

Collingwood vs Geelong Cats, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction


The Pies and Cats are two evenly matched teams statistically with little separating them across the board. My prediction is that it will go down to the wire with the Collingwood midfield clinching the win.

Both teams will be going hard at the ball not giving up an inch, Geelong are 3rd in Contested Possessions whilst Collingwood are ranked 7th. Expect there to be a lot of frantic footy to start the game before both teams settle into their game plan. 

The winner in this one could easily be the team that is most Accurate in front of Goal and can be cleaner with their ball movement through the middle of the park, setting up the forwards. My prediction is that Collingwood will be able to execute better here which they have previously done against Geelong with great success.

There is a lot of momentum in the Game Total Over trend with both teams going Over in their last 3, I have done the hard work and found the best number across all the Books. 

  • Collingwood average 3 more Scoring Shots Inside 50 per game than Geelong which could be the difference in this one.
  • The Cats give up the most Clearances per game to their Opposition at 42.8.
  • Geelong are 3rd and the Pies 7th in Contested Possessions.
  • Both teams last 3 games and the last 3 matchups between these two have gone Over the Game Total

Head to Head 


These two teams have met 6 times in the regular season since the beginning of the 2019 season with each taking 3 wins a piece. They have also met 3 times in the Finals arena during that span with Geelong holding a 2-1 record in those games.

Across the 6 regular season matchups the last 3 straight have gone Over the Game Total with the preceding 3 all going Under.

Collingwood hold a 4-2 ATS record with the Winning Margin in all 6 games finishing between 1-39 points.

Collingwood Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/L
Last 5 ATS
Last 5 O/U
2-31-44-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$199-76-62-0

The Pies suffered two significant losses on the weekend. The first to the Bombers on the scoreboard, pushing the Pies out of the 8, but also the loss of key forward Brody Mihocek who has been an integral part of their attack this season. Mihocek succumbed to a pec injury that will see him miss the remainder of the year.

Collingwood kicked 5 of the first 6 majors before taking their foot off the pedal and allowing their opponent some momentum going into the half. Down 86-61 in the last term the Pies kicked 4 of the last 5 goals of the game to give some hope of another comeback victory but it was too little too late as Essendon ran out with the win.

The Magpies Efficiency Inside 50 was way down on their season average with many scoring opportunities going begging.

Collingwood Team News


Ruckman Darcy Cameron has been cleared to play following a scare with injured ribs following the loss against Essendon. 

Jamie Elliott, Oleg Markov, John Noble and Isaac Qauynor will all need to pass fitness tests to be selected to play.

Brody Mihocek will miss the remainder of the season with a pec injury with Beau McCreery not expected back for 3-5 weeks. Mason Cox could return as early as next week but given his age and body type, 2 weeks is more realistic.

Collingwood Team List


B: B.Maynard, D.Moore - C, I.Quaynor
HB: J.Noble, O.Markov, W.Hoskin-Elliott
C: S.Sidebottom, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos
HF: B.Hill, N.Kreuger, L.Schultz
F: N.Long, P.Lipinski, J.Elliott
FOLL: D.Cameron, J.De Goey, N.Daicos

I/C: B.Frampton, J.Crisp, R.McInnes, J.Richards, H.Harrison
EMG: F.Macrae, L.Sullivan, A.Johnson

IN: J.Noble, J.Elliott, R.McInnes
OUT: C.Dean (Omitted), J.Howe (Injured), B.Mihocek (Injured)


Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/L
Last 5 ATS
Last 5 O/U
3-22-34-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$1810-67-43-2

Geelong have made it two in a row since they received a flogging at the hands of Carlton in round 15. 

Last weekend it was the high-flying Hawks that had their wings clipped by the Cats, stopping their 5 game win streak and bringing them crashing back down to earth with a 51 point victory. 

The Cats led from start to finish in the game completely outdoing their opponent in the forward half of the field amassing 63 Inside 50’s with a 57.1% Efficiency Rate up top and only 61 Turnovers for the game using the ball well across the whole field. They also outmarked their opponent Inside 50 by 22-8 which is big considering Tom Hawkins is out injured.

Geelong Cats Team News


Cam Guthrie is said to be progressing well in his return from an achilles injury but the timeline has been moved back on multiple occasions. Oli Wiltshire is expected to make a return from a pelvic injury within the next month.

Tom Hawkins will be out 6-8 weeks with a foot injury while Tanner Bruhn is still a while away. 

Geelong Cats Team List


B: J.Henry, S.De Koning, J.Kolodjashnij
HB: M.Duncan, T.Stewart, Z.Guthrie
C: Z.Tuohy, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey
HF: T.Stengle, G.Rohan, G.Miers
F: S.Mannagh, S.Neale, J.Cameron
FOLL: M.Blicavs, P.Dangerfield - C, T.Atkins

I/C: J.Bowes, B.Close, L.Humphries, J.Clark, O.Henry
EMG: J.Bews, M.Knevitt, R.Stanley

No changes

Collingwood vs Geelong Cats AFL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch Collingwood vs Geelong Cats AFL 2024 Round 18?

You can watch the Collingwood vs Geelong Cats AFL 2024 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Collingwood vs Geelong Cats AFL 2024 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the Collingwood vs Geelong Cats AFL 2024 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official Collingwood site.

Verdict

This is a bloody hard game to pick and could end up going either way. I am backing the Pies to be able to execute better and with them getting a few more opportunities in the forward will end up translating to more points. There will be a lot scoring and the trends point to the Game Total going Over.
Best Bet1: Collingwood 1-39 Winning Margin @17/11 at bet365 Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 169.5 Game Total @9/10 at Boombet - 2 Units
Collingwood 1-39
Winning Margin
@17/11 - 2 Units
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Game Total
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Betting Slip | 12 Jul 2024

Collingwood v Geelong