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Collingwood vs Adelaide Tips - Crows cover as big underdogs

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 16 May 2024
Jeremy Darke 16 May 2024
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  • Collingwood vs Adelaide expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 1:45 PM (AEST)
  • 4 of the past 5 contests between Collingwood and Adelaide have been decided by one goal.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Izak Rankine
Izak Rankine having a career-best year.(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Collingwood vs Adelaide, Round 10 2024 - Expert Prediction


Recently, matches between the Magpies and the Crows have been close affairs and that is what is predicted again in their first clash of 2024, as Adelaide are expected to cover the 21.5-point line. 
  • Collingwood vs Adelaide, Round 10 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Collingwood Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Collingwood Team News
  • Collingwood Team List
  • Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Adelaide Team News
  • Adelaide Team List
  • Collingwood vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 10 FAQ’s

The Crows have been a hard read this season, but have been improving over the last month. The line of over 3 goals is a little much with Collingwood still not back at their best and suffering a long list of injuries. 

With the bookies expecting a big win to the Magpies there is good money being given on Adelaide’s Team Totals and teasing the up would not be a bad idea, but for the sake of the exercise the Crows Over 73.5 points is the total we will play for the moment. Izak Rankine has been gunning for Adelaide so expect him to contribute with at least two goals.

  • 4 of the last 5 matches have seen a winning margin of 5 points or less between Collingwood and Adelaide. 
  • Adelaide have kicked over 73.5 points in their past 5 matches.
  • Collingwood have allowed their opposition to kick 72 points or more in 8 of 9 games this season.
  • Izak Rankine has kicked 3 or more goals in 4 of his past 5 matches for the Crows.

Head to Head 


Collingwood have won their last 8 games against Adelaide, including both fixtures last season. 

The Pies 1-point victory over the Crows in round 7 and just a 2-point win in round 15. 

Amazingly enough, Collingwood have beaten Adelaide by 5 points or less in 4 of their past 5 matches over the last two seasons.

Collingwood Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/L/DLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-0-13-22-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$55-43-32-0

I think it is safe to say that the Pies are back and in a big way. Since losing their opening three games of the season, Collingwood have now gone undefeated in their last six game with a slight blemish of a draw against Essendon. 

The Magpies mustered a 66-point win over West Coast in Round 9, which may not be a feat in itself, however, holding the Eagles to their second-lowest score of the year is something that Craig McRae was happy about. The black and white stripes also put up their second-biggest total of the year in their 103-37 win over West Coast. 

Collingwood Team News


Jeremy Howe (groin), Jamie Elliet (Vascular) and Aiden Begg (Knee) are the three newest names to the long list of injuries for Collingwood.

Jordan De Goey and Tom Mitchell will be tests later in the week which would boost the Pies immensely. 

Collingwood Team List


B: B.Maynard, D.Moore - C, B.Frampton
HB: I.Quaynor, O.Markov, W.Hoskin-Elliott
C: S.Sidebottom, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos
HF: P.Lipinski, N.Daicos, R.McInnes
F: F.Macrae, B.Hill, L.Schultz
FOLL: D.Cameron, J.Crisp, J.De Goey

I/C: J.Noble, J.Richards, L.Sullivan, H.Harrison, M.Cox
EMG: N.Kreuger, E.Allan, C.Dean

IN: L.Schultz, J.De Goey
OUT: J.Howe (Injured), J.Bytel (Injured)

Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/L/DLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-1-13-23-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$193-62-51-0

To be honest, I expected a bit more from the Crows against a lame Lions team last weekend with their match against Brisbane ending in a 90-90 draw with the lead changing thirteen times.The Crows went over their expected Team Total which was predicted but by only 3.5 points against the Lions who were playing just 2 of their six starting defenders. 

The positive for the Crows is definitely the 2024 form of Izak Rankine who has been heavily involved in the forward line having a career-best year statistically topping his numbers in average goals, disposals, tackles and clearances.

Adelaide Team News


Josh Worrell will miss up to 12 weeks with a fractured left arm after having surgery on Monday.

Riley Thilthorpe is progressing nicely with his knee injury and is predicted to return within the next two months.

Adelaide Team List


B: B.Smith, J.Butts, C.Jones
HB: L.Nankervis, M.Keane, M.Michalanney
C: M.Hinge, J.Soligo, J.Dawson - C
HF: L.Sholl, T.Walker, J.Rachele
F: E.Himmelberg, D.Fogarty, I.Rankine
FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, B.Keays

I/C: M.Crouch, N.McHenry, L.Murphy, B.Cook, W.Hamill
EMG: C.Burgess, S.Berry, J.Borlase

IN: L.Murphy, W.Hamill
OUT: J.Worrell (Injured), D.Curtin (Omitted)

Collingwood vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 10 FAQ’s

How to watch Collingwood vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 10?

You can watch the Collingwood vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 10 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Collingwood vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 10?

To buy tickets to the Collingwood vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 10 game check the AFL website or the official Collingwood site.

Verdict

The Crows will kick more than 73.5 points and cover the 21.5 points as the underdog with Izak Rankine kicking 2 or more goals.
Best Bet1: Adelaide +21.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at Elitebet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Adelaide Over 73.5 Team Total @10/11 at Betr - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Izak Rankine 2+ Goals @4/5 at Neds - 2 Units
Adelaide +21.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Adelaide Over 73.5
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Betting Slip | 18 May 2024

Collingwood v Adelaide