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Carlton vs Melbourne Tips - Defensive tactics of Melbourne too superior for Carlton

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 08 May 2024
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Jeremy Darke 08 May 2024
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  • Carlton vs Melbourne expert predictions for Thursday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
  • Strong defensive play and game possession by Melbourne gives them the edge.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Melbourne Demons, Carlton Blues
Melbourne's defensive tactics to give them advantage against Carlton. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Carlton vs Melbourne, Round 9 2024 - Expert Prediction


Melbourne will get their revenge for their 2023 AFL Finals loss to Carlton by getting a close win against the Blues on Thursday Night Footy.
  • Carlton vs Melbourne, Round 9 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Carlton Team News
  • Carlton Team List
  • Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Team News
  • Melbourne Team List
  • Carlton vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 9 FAQ’s

Carlton are no stranger to close games this season and are beginning to fall on the wrong side of the result, losing 3 of their past 4 matches by a margin of 13 points or less. Melbourne are a team that thrives on tight games where their defensive tactics can tire their opponents. The Demons will strangle the Blues just as they did against the undefeated Cats last week and handed them their first loss of the season. 

The defensive nature of Melbourne will dominate the aggressive attack of the Carlton forward line and keep this game Under the Game Total, which is a common occurrence between these two heavyweights. 

  • Melbourne have won 8 of the past 10 matches against Carlton.
  • Melbourne concedes just 66.25 points per game in 2024. 
  • The past six matches between Carlton and Melbourne have hit Under the Game Total.
  • 6 of 8 Melbourne games have hit Under the Game Total.

Head to Head 


Melbourne and Carlton played three times in 2023 with the Blues winning 2 of 3 matches, including a 73-71 contest in the Semi Finals. 

Melbourne won the first meeting of the season between the two 61-44 and had won the 7 matches prior.

Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-32-33-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$185-34-31-0

The Blues were on the wrong end of a nailbiter against old foe’s the Collingwood Magpies in Round 8 going down 85-79 with Nick Daicos kicking the game-winning goal in thee final minutes in a game that saw 8 lead changes. 

The Blues took advantage of their chances when they had them, however, Collingwood’s sheer weight of inside 50’s proved to be too much in the end with the Pies winning the entries 64-38. Harry McKay (4 goals) and Matt Owies (3 goals) were near perfect up front but just did not see enough of the ball with the Collingwood midfield cutting them off for the majority of the game. 

Carlton are still in eighth place on the ladder but have once again played in another match that was decided by 10 points or less, being their fifth in eight matches. The Blues have now lost three of the past four games, needing to work on putting their opponents away when they have the chance.

Carlton Team News


Caleb Marchbank, Zac Williams and Mitch McGovern could all return this week if they past final testing and would be a huge boost for their backline.

Carlton Team List


Team list yet to be released.

Melbourne Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-14-11-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$222-63-23-0

Melbourne handed Geelong their first loss of the 2024 season, beating the Cats 74-66 in a tactically defensive game by both teams. The Demons once again almost cost themselves the game by some inexcusably inaccurate kicking which saw them finish the match slotting just 10 goals from 24 scoring shots. 

In typical Demon fashion, Melbourne relied on their defensive structure and possession ball to wear the Cats down, which did work for them in the end, however a 2.7 third quarter saw them cough up their lead and almost cost them the game. 

The Demons rightfully sit fourth on the ladder, however, if they are to move forward and become a true contender for the Premiership, coach Simon Goodwin is going to have to sort out their quality inside their forward 50 as Melbourne are a bottom-ten team in Goal Accuracy (48.7), Shot Efficiency (48.3%) and Goal Efficiency (23.5%).

Melbourne Team News


Jack Bowey is available for selection after being sidelined with a shoulder injury for the past two months. 

Melbourne Team List


Team list yet to be released.

Carlton vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 9 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 9?

You can watch the Carlton vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 9 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 9?

To buy tickets to the Carlton vs Melbourne AFL 2024 Round 9 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton site.

Verdict

Melbourne’s defensive tactics will give them the edge and hand them a win by a margin of 1-39. The game will be controlled by the possession of the Dees which will keep the Game Total to the Under.
Best Bet1: Melbourne 1-39 Little Win @16/11 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 168.5 Game Total @20/21 at Bet Right - 3 Units
Melbourne 1-39
Little Win
@16/11 - 2 Units
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Betting Slip | 09 May 2024

Carlton v Melbourne