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Carlton vs Gold Coast Tips - Gold Coast expected to keep their spot in the 8 with win over Carlton

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Last updated: 23 May 2024
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Ryan Tucker 23 May 2024
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  • Carlton vs Gold Coast expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 1:45 PM (AEST)
  • Suns lead in key AFL metrics: Inside 50s, Metres Gained, Intercept Possessions.
  • Carlton faces significant injuries, impacting team performance.
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Touk miller
Touk Miller of the Suns against Carlton (Photo by Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

Carlton vs Gold Coast, Round 11 2024 - Expert Prediction


The Gold Coast Suns are the surprise packet of the 2024 season. They will continue their upward journey with a decisive victory over the Blues in this Saturday afternoon matchup.
  • Carlton vs Gold Coast, Round 11 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Carlton Team News
  • Carlton Team List
  • Gold Coast Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Gold Coast Team News
  • Gold Coast Team List
  • Carlton vs Gold Coast AFL 2024 Round 11 FAQ’s

The Suns are in the 8, ahead of the Dockers and Blues on percentage with one of their better scoring seasons since their inception into the league. A massive win over the Cats last weekend will give them confidence coming into this clash with Carlton who copped a lashing against Sydney last weekend.

Both of these teams are top of the league in Centre Clearances with the Suns also top of the rankings in Inside 50’s, Metres Gained, Intercept Possessions/Marks as well as 5th in Scoring Accuracy. It is these metrics together with the predictive modelling that give strength to the Suns covering the line.

  • Gold Coast average 58.6 Inside 50’s per game, 1st in the AFL
  • The Suns restrict their opponents to 196.9 Uncontested Possessions per game, the 2nd best team in the league
  • Carlton give up 12.9 Centre Clearances to their opposition per game, 4th worst in the AFL
  • Gold Coast Turn the ball over at the highest rate in the league giving up 72.8 TO’s per game

Head to Head 


These teams have met 8 times since the beginning of the 2019 season. Carlton lead the head to head battle with 5 wins to 3. They also won both games played in 2023 the first with a 59 point margin the second with a 4 point margin. 

5 of the 8 games played since 2019 have gone Under the Game Total with both teams covering the line 4 times. 

Only 1 of the last 8 games have finished with a margin of 40 points or more. 

Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-32-33-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$196-45-31-1

Carlton were brought back down to earth last weekend against the Swans going down by 52 points, their biggest of the season so far and largest losing margin since 118-62 loss to Adelaide in round 5 last year.

The Blues got out to an early lead against Sydney but were eaten up in the 2nd quarter with their opposition running away with the game in the second half. The Blues had a rough day in their forward line reaching only 40.8% Efficiency Inside 50.

Carlton Team News


No relief for the Blues with the injury list continuing to grow. Marc Pittonet is the latest casualty with a finger injury ruling him out of this one. Jacob Weitering picked up a cork last weekend and will need to show he can play through the pain to be selected. 

In a bit of good news Lachie Fogarty, Sam Durdin, Jesse Motlop and Adam Saad may all make their returns if they can pass fitness tests.

Carlton Team List


B: A.Saad, J.Weitering, L.Cowan
HB: B.Kemp, M.McGovern, N.Newman
C: O.Hollands, P.Cripps - C, B.Acres
HF: Z.Williams, H.McKay, E.Hollands
F: O.Fantasia, C.Curnow, M.Owies
FOLL: T.De Koning, S.Walsh, M.Kennedy

I/C: J.Boyd, G.Hewett, A.Cincotta, L.Fogarty, J.Carroll
EMG: C.Durdin, Le.Young, J.Binns

IN: A.Saad, L.Cowan, L.Fogarty
OUT: C.Durdin (Omitted), M.Pittonet (Injured), C.Marchbank (Managed)

Gold Coast Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-23-23-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$136-43-23-2

Well what can we say about the Suns, two weeks in a row they have won their games by over 60 points with the most recent win against the Cats maybe their biggest win against a top team ever. It is also the first time since the middle of 2022 where they have won back to back games scoring over 100 points.

The Suns are undoubtedly a different team this year both in attack and defence they also lead the league in Inside 50’s and are 2nd behind Carlton in Centre Clearances.

Gold Coast Team News


No new major injury news for the Suns who expect to get Malcolm Rosas jnr back next week ahead of his original timeline. 

Gold Coast Team List


B: S.Collins, C.Ballard, M.Andrew
HB: S.Flanders, B.Uwland, J.Jeffrey
C: D.Swallow, T.Miller - C, S.Clohesy
HF: J.Walter, B.Long, L.Johnston
F: B.King, M.Rowell, J.Lukosius
FOLL: J.Witts, N.Anderson, B.Humphrey

I/C: A.Sexton, N.Holman, B.Ainsworth, T.Berry, J.Rogers
EMG: A.Davies, B.Fiorini, H.Oea

IN: J.Walter, J.Witts, N.Holman, J.Rogers
OUT: B.Fiorini (Omitted), N.Moyle (Omitted), A.Davies (Omitted), S.Day (Omitted)

Carlton vs Gold Coast AFL 2024 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton vs Gold Coast AFL 2024 Round 11?

You can watch the Carlton vs Gold Coast AFL 2024 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton vs Gold Coast AFL 2024 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Carlton vs Gold Coast AFL 2024 Round 11 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton site.

Verdict

The Suns have had two massive wins in a row and this week will be tested by a strong Carlton defence. Gold Coast will win with a small margin and the Total will stay Under with defensive strategies playing a big part.
Best Bet1: Gold Coast 1-39 Winning Margin @21/10 at bet365 Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 177.5 Game Total @9/10 at Justbet - 1 Unit
Gold Coast 1-39
Winning Margin
@21/10 - 2 Units
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