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Carlton vs Adelaide Tips - Blues in another close contest

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 12 Apr 2024
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Jeremy Darke 12 Apr 2024
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  • Carlton vs Adelaide expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 4:35 PM (AEST)
  • Carlton, despite being undefeated, faces a tight contest with Adelaide covering the 22.5-point line.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Expired
Adelaide Crows, Carlton Blues
A tough tussle in the midfield expected to dominate this game. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Carlton vs Adelaide, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction


The Adelaide Crows put in a more impressive performance against the Demons last week and will continue to build the momentum when they take on the undefeated Blues in what will be another neck and neck battle for Carlton that will see Adelaide cover the line.
  • Carlton vs Adelaide, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Carlton Team News
  • Carlton Team List
  • Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Adelaide Team News
  • Adelaide Team List
  • Carlton vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 5 FAQ’s

The Blues have escaped with three close victories in 2024 which has me questioning their true stature as a top powerhouse in the AFL this season. The effort and attitude is obviously there but they continue to find themselves in these close battles that could very easily go the other way. Adelaide have been on the other end of the spectrum where their mistakes and inability to score have cost them games when they have been in the contest for long periods. 

Last week’s games for both teams are a true testament to that and we will see another contest that will hang in the balance until either team takes it by the horns, which will likely be Carlton if the trends continue. However, this game is expected to be a close one and the 22.5-point line will be too big for Carlton as the Crows will at least cover the handicap. 

Due to the Crows lack of scoring ability, all of their games have hit the under this season. The game total is set at 165.5 which will be too high once again. I see this game playing out much like the Crows match with the Demons last weekend. Both teams will match each other in the early stages in the midfield which will have this game bog down and slow the scoring, which will see the Under hit on the final whistle.

  • 3 of 4 Adelaide losses has been by a margin less than 23.5 points 
  • 3 of 4 Carlton wins have been by 10 points or less.
  • All 4 Adelaide matches have gone Under the game total.
  • 4 of the last 6 matches between Carlton and Adelaide have had a game total of less than 165.5 points.

Head to Head 


Adelaide had no problems getting past Carlton in the early stages of last season with the Crows dusting up the Blues 118-62 in round 5, 2023. The Crows got out to a 42-point lead in the first quarter and gave Carlton no chance.

The head to head record is dead even at 3-3 since 2019  with Carlton winning the last 2 games at Marvel Stadium.

Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Carlton trailed the Fremantle Dockers for 105 minutes of their game, however once again found a way to win and kicked three goals in the final 5 minutes of the match to escape with a 63-73 point win and get their first-ever victory at Adelaide Oval.

The Carlton midfield with Patrick Cripps, George Hewitt and Adam Cerra continue to be the glue that holds Carlton together in the tough parts of the match. Although, it was the clutch goalkicking of Charlie Curnow who gave Carlton the spirit-lifter with the Coleman Medalist putting the Blues in striking distance in the final moments. 

Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-03-12-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$402-23-01-0

Carlton Team News


Sam Walsh is hopeful to return this week but must undergo some final testing later in the week. Elijah Hollands and Caleb Marchbank will also undergo testing later in the week to clarify their availability.

Lachie Gogarty will miss some time after fracturing his wrist which also saw him get a one week suspension.

Carlton Team List


B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, N.Newman
HB: A.Saad, M.McGovern, Z.Williams
C: O.Hollands, P.Cripps - C, B.Acres
HF: E.Hollands, H.McKay, M.Kennedy
F: O.Fantasia, C.Curnow, M.Owies
FOLL: T.De Koning, A.Cerra, G.Hewett

I/C: J.Boyd, J.Carroll, M.Cottrell, S.Walsh, C.Durdin
EMG: J.Binns, L.Cowan, M.Pittonet

IN: S.Walsh
OUT: L.Fogarty (suspended)

Adelaide Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
0-41-30-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$00-40-40-0

Adelaide have slumped to 15th on the ladder with a 0-4 start to the season. Their latest loss opened the Gather Round against Melbourne, going down to the Demons 78-63, however, it was a much more encouraging performance from the Crows. 

Adelaide were definitely in the fight in the early stages, however, their pressure on ball once again did not result in enough points on the scoreboard which ultimately came back to bite them in the closing stages of the half and the beginning of the third term when the Dees took control of the contest. 

It was the same old story for Adelaide who once again couldn’t find their forwards inside 50 to create easy set shots in gusty conditions, which has been their biggest issue all season.

Adelaide Team News


Patrick Parnell will be out for an extended period with a severe shoulder injury. 

Harry Schoenberg is progressing well but is still at least a week away from testing out his achilles in the SANFL.

Adelaide Team List


B: L.Nankervis, J.Butts, B.Smith
HB: W.Hamill, M.Keane, M.Michalanney
C: M.Hinge, J.Dawson - C, C.Jones
HF: J.Soligo, I.Rankine, J.Rachele
F: N.McHenry, D.Fogarty, T.Walker
FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, B.Keays

I/C: J.Worrell, S.Berry, M.Crouch, B.Cook, L.Gollant
EMG: B.Dowling, J.Borlase, C.Burgess

IN: W.Hamill, L.Gollant
OUT: P.Parnell (Injured), C.Burgess (Omitted)

Carlton vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 5?

You can watch the Carlton vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Carlton vs Adelaide AFL 2024 Round 5 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton site.

Verdict

Carlton will play in another tight contest which will see Adelaide cover the 22.5-point line. The battle in the midfield will slow down the scoring in this match which will see the under hit.
Best Bet1: Adelaide +22.5 Handicap/Line @1/1 at dabble - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 165.5 Game Total @13/14 at Bet Right - 2 Units
Adelaide +22.5
Handicap/Line
@1/1 - 3 Units
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Betting Slip | 13 Apr 2024

Carlton v Adelaide