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Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants Tips - Giants make it a blue day for Carlton

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Last updated: 19 Apr 2024
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Ryan Tucker 19 Apr 2024
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  • Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 4:35 PM (AEST)
  • Tom Green of the GWS Giants expected to put on a significant performance
  • Giants are predicted to win the round 6 AFL game against the Carlton Blues as Underdogs
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Tom Green
Tom Green of the Giants (Photo by Cameron Spencer/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants, Round 6 2024 - Expert Prediction


Carlton will risk sliding out of the top 8 with the GWS Giants predicted to steal the win in this round 6 matchup.

Both of these teams were involved in games with tight finishes last weekend and fatigue could be a factor leading in to this weekend. GWS were able to stave off a fast finishing St Kilda outfit who kicked 6 goals in a row in the 4th quarter to bring the scores to within 1 point with about a minute left on the clock. The men in orange were able to hold on for the victory and continue to lead the AFL ladder ahead of the Geelong Cats.

For Carlton the luck finally swung the other way with an Adelaide goal just minutes from fulltime sealing the 2 point win for the visiting Crows. The Blues have become known recently for winning games with close finishes but could not keep their opposition from scoring late in the final term.

Both teams will look to improve on their 4th quarter defensive structures to ensure that the opponent this weekend doesn’t pull the same caper. My prediction is that the Giants will have an easier time adjusting and with the Blues struggling across the board with injuries it will be a bridge too far and the Giants will consolidate top spot in the AFL with a win on the road.

  • GWS are averaging 59.4 Inside 50’s per game, the 3rd most in the AFL
  • The Giants average almost 40 more Handballs per game than the Blues pointing to a more developed running game
  • Carlton take on average only 10.2 marks Inside 50 per game the 6th least in the league
  • Tom Green is averaging 32 Disposals against Carlton in his last 5 games played

Head to Head 


Eight games have been played between these teams since the beginning of the 2019 season. GWS hold the slight advantage 5-3 and won the most recent game played in 2023 with a score of 105-73. Toby Greene kicked 4 goals in the 32 point win with Tom Green and Lachie Whitfield both having over 30 touches each. For the Blues it was Charlie Curnow who stood out kicking 3 majors with 12 disposals. 

All but 1 of the last 8 games have finished with margins of 1-39 whilst the Over/Under is split down the middle at 4-4.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/L
Last 5 ATS
Last 5 O/U
4-13-23-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$303-23-11-0

Carlton have become the kings of close games with another matchup finishing with a single digit margin. It is now 7 of their last 11 games that have finished with a margin of less than 10 and the first that they have been on the losing end of. 

The lead was wrestled back and forth during the game with Adelaide but the Blues led for most of the 4th quarter until Sam Berry slotted a major in the 30th minute of the quarter breaking the hearts of the Baggers faithful. 

Carlton Blues Team News


The early news from afl.com.au is that the Blues have been hit by the injury bug. Adam Saad set to miss up to 6 weeks with Adam Cerra, Jack Martin, Jesse Motlop and Mitch McGovern all out with hamstring injuries. 

Carlton Blues Team List


B: L.Cowan, J.Weitering, B.Kemp
HB: Z.Williams, L.Young, N.Newman
C: O.Hollands, P.Cripps - C, B.Acres
HF: M.Cottrell, T.De Koning, E.Hollands
F: C.Curnow, H.McKay, M.Owies
FOLL: M.Pittonet, S.Walsh, G.Hewett

I/C: J.Boyd, J.Carroll, O.Fantasia, C.Durdin, M.Kennedy
EMG: J.Binns, A.Cincotta, H.O’Keeffe

IN: L.Cowan, L.Young
OUT: M.McGovern (Injured), A.Saad (Injured)

GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
5-03-23-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML
Over/Under
1-39
40+
-$13-24-01-0

There is a big big sound and they are making themselves heard. GWS sit atop the AFL ladder on equal points with the Cats but ahead on percentage. Following the round 1 upset of the defending premiers the Giants have arguably had one of the easiest schedules but they have still come away with decisive victories in most of their games. 

The one point win over St Kilda last weekend was a nerve wracking exhibition with the Saints kicking 6 straight goals to end the game falling just short of a miracle comeback victory. The Giants will need to regroup and see what went wrong that allowed one of the leagues least dynamic scoring teams to claw their way back into the game.

GWS Giants Team News


The afl.com.au injury list reports that the Giants are tentative on putting a timeline on Sam Taylor’s return to play following a concussion. The outlook for Stephen Coniglio is positive but he is still expected to miss up to two weeks. Callan Ward could make a comeback this week following a successful return in the VFL. 

GWS Giants Team List


B: H.Perryman, H.Himmelberg, C.Idun
HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash
C: J.Wehr, J.Kelly, F.Callaghan
HF: B.Daniels, J.Riccardi, T.Bedford
F: T.Greene - C, J.Hogan, C.Brown
FOLL: K.Briggs, C.Ward, T.Green

I/C: X.O’Halloran, H.Thomas, L.Aleer, A.Cadman, J.Peatling
EMG: N.Haynes, R.Angwin, M.Gruzewski

IN: C.Ward, L.Aleer
OUT: S.Taylor (Injured), S.Coniglio (Injured)

Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 6 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 6?

You can watch the Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 6 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 6?

To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2024 Round 6 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues site.

Verdict

The Giants will be too tough for Carlton in this one and i am happy to take the moneyline on GWS as the Underdog. The data modelling is predicting a high scoring affair so we are taking the Over on the Game Total and once Player Props are released will be jumping on any number that is lower than 28 for Tom Green.
Best Bet1: GWS Giants Money Line @21/20 at Justbet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Over 175.5 Game Total @8/9 at Puntnow - 1 Unit
GWS Giants
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Betting Slip | 20 Apr 2024

Carlton v Greater Western Sydney