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Brisbane vs Geelong Tips - Lions roar in battle of the feline

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 19 Apr 2024
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Jeremy Darke 19 Apr 2024
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  • Brisbane vs Geelong expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Gabba, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
  • A tight game expected, with few scoring opportunities, likely hitting the Under on the Game Total
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Brisbane Lions, Geelong Cats
Lachie Neal and Brisbane returned to form in round 5. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Brisbane vs Geelong, Round 6 2024 - Expert Prediction


The 5-0 Geelong Cats will go up against the 2-3 Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Saturday as the home team look to get their first win of the season in their fortress where they were unbeaten last year. The Cats have been perfect this year but they will leave Brisbane after suffering their first defeat of the year as the Lions return to Premiership contender conversation again.
  • Brisbane vs Geelong, Round 6 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Brisbane Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Brisbane Team News
  • Brisbane Team List
  • Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Geelong Team News
  • Geelong Team List
  • Brisbane vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 6 FAQ’s

It is not often that you tip against a team that is unbeaten in the first five games of the year and it is definitely uncommon that they start as a 13.5-point underdog either. Credit needs to be given to Chris Scott and the Geelong team that have started flawlessly while overcoming major injuries, however, this is more about the Lions than the Cats.

Brisbane started with a taste of a dirty bird in their mouth suffering a hangover from hell after their grand final loss to the Magpies, although they have now appeared to turn the corner and find their feet again after an impressive win shutting down everything the Demons could throw at them last week. 

Geelong do not have the greatest record at the Gabba and it will be time for Brisbane to call it their den again by winning the battle of the feline. If Brisbane can keep improving their accuracy in front of goal and pressure Geelong as they did Melburne they will control this game on Saturday. 

I expect it to still be a tight contest with the Lions getting up by a slim margin and with the line being where it is, I prefer to take Brisbane by a 1-39 margin instead of taking on the handicap. Both teams play with plenty of pressure on their opponents and reduce scoring opportunities so I see this game following the trend between these two clubs and hitting the Under on the Game Total.

  • Brisbane has won 3 of their past 4 matches against Geelong at the Gabba.  
  • 8 of 10 matches involving Brisbane and Geelong have ended with a margin of 1-39
  • 6 of the past 8 matches between the Lions and the Cats has gone Under the Game Total.
  • 4 of 5 Brisbane matches have gone Under the Game Total in 2024.

Head to Head 


Brisbane led from start to finish in their round 19 clash with Geelong in 2023, beating the in accurate Cats 9.10 (64) - 7.11 (53), at the Gabba last season.

Geelong do hold the better 5-3 record over Brisbane in the head to head stats since 2019, however, the Lions have won 3 of 4 games at the Gabba.

Brisbane Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-32-31-4

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$121-41-31-0

Brisbane were a different beast last week against the Demons in their Thursday night 82-60 win at the MCG, looking more like the side that took their way to the Grand Final in 2023, not like the team that started the season 0-3. 

If we focus on the now and the past two performances from the Lions, they definitely look like contenders again. They put the sword to the Kangaroos so we can put a green tick on that one and they won the battle at ground level against the Demons, beating Melbourne at their own game by forcing them into mistakes through strong pressure and dominating the clearances. 

If Brisbane continue to play at the level they did in round 5, it won’t be long before we see them sitting at the top of the ladder again and everyone beginning to talk about their premiership chances in a positive manner.

Brisbane Team News


Zac Bailey has been ruled out for up to six weeks with a high ankle sprain suffered in last week's win against the Demons.

Conor McKenna has recovered from his hamstring injury and will be available to play. 

Brisbane Team List


B: B.Starcevich, J.Payne, R.Lester
HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews - C, D.Gardiner
C: J.Fletcher, H.McCluggage, J.Berry
HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, L.McCarthy
F: C.Rayner, J.Daniher, D.Zorko
FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale

I/C: K.Lohmann, C.Ah Chee, J.Lyons, J.Tunstill, N.Answerth
EMG: L.Morris, J.Prior, D.Fort

IN: J.Lyons
OUT: Z.Bailey (injured)

Geelong Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
5-04-13-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
$383-24-01-0

The Cats have been flawless to start the season and have already performed beyond the expectations of most, especially in their wins against the Western Bulldogs and the Saints. They also did no harm to their reputation by dusting up the Kangaroos by 75 points last Sunday. 

The Cats have showed their experience and proved that by playing a solid possession game and using their defensive pressure to force mistakes from their opponents they can control the flow of the game and pounce when they need to and being incredible accurate in front of goal with a goal efficiency that has them second in the league at 26.6 % behind only the GWS.

Geelong Team News


The Cats are very close to being fully fit, just needing a couple more weeks before Cam Guthrie returns from his quad injury sustained in the preseaon.

Mitch Edwards and Joe Furphy are also a couple of weeks away. 

Geelong Team List


B: Z.Guthrie, S.De Koning, J.Kolodjashnij
HB: T.Stewart, J.Henry, M.Holmes
C: M.Blicavs, P.Dangerfield - C, M.Duncan
HF: B.Close, T.Stengle, G.Miers
F: J.Cameron, T.Hawkins, O.Henry
FOLL: T.Conway, J.Bowes, T.Bruhn

I/C: O.Dempsey, B.Parfitt, M.O’Connor, T.Atkins, J.Clark
EMG: S.Neale, C.O’Sullivan, R.Stanley

IN: J.Kolodjashnij, P.Dangerfield, T.Hawkins, T.Conway
OUT: C.O’Sullivan (Omitted), Z.Tuohy (Managed), S.Neale (Omitted), R.Stanley (Managed)

Brisbane vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 6 FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 6?

You can watch the Brisbane vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 6 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 6?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane vs Geelong AFL 2024 Round 6 game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane site.

Verdict

The Lions will win the pressure battle against the Cats and get a win by a margin of 1-39. This will be a tightly contested game that will not produce a lot of scoring opportunities which will see the Game Total hit the Under.
Best Bet1: Brisbane 1-39 Little Win @13/11 at Betr - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 167.5 Game Total @9/10 at Justbet - 2 Units
Brisbane 1-39
Little Win
@13/11 - 2 Units
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Betting Slip | 20 Apr 2024

Brisbane v Geelong