Brisbane vs Carlton Tips - Battered Blues muscle up against the Lions

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: 04 Sep 2024

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Jeremy Darke 04 Sep 2024

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Brisbane vs Carlton expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
The game will be played at Gabba, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
Carlton expected to regain key players and close the gap.
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Jez tells you why Carlton can cover!

Brisbane vs Carlton, Round Week 1 2024 - Expert Prediction

Last season’s preliminary final is this season’s elimination final with Brisbane taking on Carlton on Saturday night. Brisbane are heavy 22.5-point favourite’s but with Carlton expected to get some key men back this game is predicted to finish much closer.

Brisbane vs Carlton, Round Week 1 2024 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Brisbane Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Brisbane Team News
Brisbane Team List
Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Carlton Team News
Carlton Team List
Brisbane vs Carlton AFL 2024 Finals Week 1 FAQ’s

Brisbane do have the upper-hand no matter who the Blues put on the field, however, getting 22.5 points in a finals match is too tempting to not take up for Carlton. If they get back a key goal scorer and a couple of their midfielders this match will be a fight, especially with the recent history between these two clubs over the past couple of seasons.

Brisbane's backline has been destroyed by injury and they have needed to pick up their attack to counter. The Blues are an attacking side and will go after the Lions backs, even during the period late in the season when they were losing they were still able to kick goals with their impressive inside 50 conversion rate.

Expect the Blues to cover and also go over a reasonable 72.5-point team total that has been set.

(To note: Get in early before team lists are named as these numbers may change dramatically after Thursday evening.)

5 of the last 7 wins by Brisbane were by a margin of 20 points or less.
8 of 10 Carlton losses were by a margin of 14 points or less this season.
In Carlton’s 2-6 run to end the season they still kicked over 72.5 points in 6 of those matches.
Brisbane held their opponents under 73 points in just 3 of their final 11 matches of the season.

Head to Head

Carlton turned a 46-point deficit into a one-point win in opening round at the Gabba this season. The Blues Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow kicked 7 goals with the former kicking the game winner 90 secs from the siren.

Brisbane haad won 5 straight games against Carlton prior to the first match of this season, including a 79-53 victory in the preliminary final last season when Brisbane came back from 30 points down in the first quarter to have a lead of 28 mid-way through the fourth before sealing their path to the finals.

The Brisbane Lions and Carlton Blues have met 4 times in the finals with Brisbane holding a 3-1 advantage in those contests.

Brisbane Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	0-5

2024 Betting Trends

$10 ML	Over/Under	1-39	40+
-$17	10-13	9-7	5-1

Brisbane won 9 straight matches to revive their season from a 2-5 start which pulled them back into the top 8 for the final third of the season. The Lions did hit a couple of speed bumps in GWS and Collingwood which ended that run before settling in the final round by taking care of Essendon by 20 points before the bye round.

With season ending injuries to half of their backline throughout the year Brisbane went on the attack and averaged 100.5 points in their final 12 games of the season. It could have very well been more but they have lacked the clinical finish that they had in 2023, kicking at just 50.7% shot at goal accuracy.

Brisbane started the season 0-3 at the Gabba but recovered nicely with a 7 from 8 win record in Brisbane after their poor start.

Brisbane Team News

Brandon Starcevich (hamstring) and Jack Payne (foot) as well as utility Bruce Reville (fibula) will all be available for the Elimination final in a huge boost for Brisbane.

Brisbane Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Carlton Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	2-3	0-5

2024 Betting Trends

$10 ML	Over/Under	1-39	40+
$2	13-10	9-8	4-2

The Blues were looking like one of the favourites for the premiership sitting at 11-4 and blasting past their opponents on a 5-game win streak with an average winning margin of 43 points after round 16, however the tide turned quickly on Carlton. The Blues began to run into injury trouble and won just 2 of the final 8 games of the season and snuck into the finals on the back of a loss by Freo in Perth in the final game of the season.

Carlton’s strength has undoubtedly been their forward line which has converted 46.2 percent of its inside 50s into points and 26.7 percent into goals. Last year’s Coleman medalist Charlie Curnow leads the Blues with 57 goals from 21 appearances as he has struggled through the season with an ankle injury and has not been at his best.

Carlton Team News

Sam Doherty will play his first game since doing his ACL in the opening match against Brisbane this season.

There is positive uncertainty around the health of Charlie Curnow (ankle), Harry McKay (quad), Mitch McGovern (hamstring), Zac Williams (hamstring), Tom De Koning (foot), Adam Cerra (hamstring) and Jack Martin (hamstring).

Rumour has it that the majority will return for the clash against Brisbane.

Carlton Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Brisbane vs Carlton AFL 2024 Finals Week 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane vs Carlton AFL 2024 Finals Week 1?

You can watch the Brisbane vs Carlton AFL 2024 Finals Week 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.