AFL Finals Week 1 Tips - Predictions for all 4 games

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: 03 Sep 2024

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Bets.com.au Staff 03 Sep 2024

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AFL Finals Week 1 features 4 games this week
Adam Page previews all matches
Get top tips for each game

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Brisbane Lions and the Carlton Blues meet in Week 1 (Getty Images)

The regular season of the 2024 AFL Season is done and dusted. Now it is time for the big boys to step up as the Finals kicks off, four games and each of them shape up to be ripping contests in their own right.

We’ve put together all our tips analysis ahead of a massive round of footy in this AFL Finals Week One Preview.

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Port Adelaide vs Geelong Cats

Halfway through the year, you would have been called if you said that Port Adelaide and Geelong would be playing off to earn a spot in a Grand Final Qualifier. The respective seasons of each club has been remarkable.

Port Adelaide booed Ken Hinkley after a bad loss, then scraped home against St Kilda. Since then, they have become a dynamic team, with their back line looking very settled and one of the most effective in the comp.

No Dan Houston but still have the gun midfield, and they also have Jason Horne-Francis, who is fast becoming one of the best mid-forwards in the game. He is playing 50/50 mid-forward and is a very effective target inside 50.

Geelong looked like they would struggle to make the eight but Patrick Dangerfield returned from injury, and with Tom Hawkins out, it allowed Jeremy Cameron to be the key forward and their form has been remarkable since.

Cameron is the #1 guy for Geelong up forward and Dangerfield has pretty much been carrying the midfield on his back.

I think a Geelong win would be something because if Dangerfield and Cameron is contained, they don't really have many other options in terms of impact. I like Port Adelaide at home.

Best Bet: Port Adelade Win ($1.50 EliteBet)

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn

In a way, it is a shame that these two sides are facing off and the loser is out. The last couple of months, they have clearly been the two sides that are the most attractive to watch.

The Bulldogs had a bad slip up against Adelaide but their two wins since have been solid, albeit against North Melbourne and a GWS side that had several outs, so how strong is that form, when you really break it down?

That said, you can argue the case for Hawthorn, with wins over Richmond and North Melbourne, two of the worst sides in the competition, but both sides have very strong profiles both in attack and defence.

The match could be decided in the Bulldogs forward line. They have close to a 10cm height advantage, at least, over the key defenders that Hawthorn has. That could be exploited heavily if the Bulldogs midfield can do their work and get it in forward.

On the flip side, the smaller forward line of Hawthorn has been quite dynamic, with their defensive pressure being one of the best of any forward line in the comp. I am believing what I am seeing with Hawthorn.

Best Bet: Hawthorn Win ($2.15 Tradie Bet)

Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants

You can argue that this game is in the wrong time slot but either way, it will be one of the highlights of the opening week of the Finals.

A Derby is always must watch TV and the Sydney Derby, 'The Battle Of The Bridge', is fast becoming one of the more anticipated games to watch on TV.

This will be the third time they play in a Finals match and it shapes up to be a beauty with the Swans finding some positive form after a lean run whereas the Giants haven't been as impressive but continue to get the job done.

They rested a couple of players last week against the Bulldogs, potentially with eyes towards the Finals and finishing fourth, and with that, staying in Sydney instead of being on the road.

They played earlier in the year on a couple of occasions, with each team winning. The Swans were more impressive in their Derby win and as good as the Giants are on paper, I do feel there is a bit more quality in the Swans line up.

Best Bet: Sydney win ($1.62 PlayUp)

Brisbane Lions vs Carlton

Brisbane are too good of a team on paper to finish fifth on the table and did cough up a couple of games where they looked in complete control and cost themselves a top two double chance finish.

I am not 100% sold on them and that would be a big disappointment given the talent they have and the fact they have been pushing hard for a premiership for a number of years. And that is why I am giving Carlton a massive shout of an upset.

Their last two weeks have seen them decimated by injury so when there is a lack of talent, coach Michael Voss would have asked for effort and the Blues were ranked #1 for pressure in the last two rounds of the season.

They will be getting a host of key players returning from injury and the query will be is whether or not the big ins will better their team or worsen them.

My thinking is that these players are coming into this with fresh legs and really, Carlton have nothing to lose because they are going to Brisbane, at The Gabba, and nobody is giving them a chance to beat the Lions.

It's a free hit, they can play care free and that is a dangerous recipe. I am going for the upset with Carlton.

Best Bet: Carlton Win ($3.75 Picklebet)